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NRL Tips and Predictions – Round 11

12/05/2025|Joel Caine|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
<p>Upsets, demolition jobs, and 30-30 draws, last week had it all. The craziest NRL season in recent memory delivered its craziest round yet, meaning there’s a lot for NRL round 11 to live up to this week.</p> <p>Luckily there are plenty of mouthwatering matchups on the cards as well as the looming selection of this year’s State of Origin teams.</p> <p>Time is running out for the game’s stars to earn the right to represent their state in the Origin cauldron, so expect some big performances this week from last year’s incumbents and those hot on their heels.</p> <p>Who will put their hand up for an Origin jumper this week? And who will let the opportunity pass them by? Let’s find out.</p> <p>For all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this week’s action, check out our expert NRL Round 11&nbsp;tips and predictions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, May 16, 6:00pm AEST – McDonald Jones Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It took one week for the Knights to undo all their hard work from Magic Round, blowing a 20-0 lead at home to the Titans who were on a five-game losing streak.</p> <p>Not even Titan’s coach Des Hasler could believe what he was seeing, with images of his shocked expression quickly going viral after full-time.</p> <p>After bottling it against one cellar dweller, the Knights get a shot at redemption against another.</p> <p>They welcome the last-placed Parramatta Eels to McDonald Jones Stadium on Friday night.</p> <p>The main storyline heading into this one will revolve around Dylan Brown. The Eels No.6 announced earlier this season that he would be joining the Knights next year on the richest deal in NRL history.</p> <p>The Kiwi international has slowly been living up to that price tag over the last fortnight, with two tries in his last two games.</p> <p>We’re tipping Brown to torment his future employers and show them exactly what they’re getting next year while leading the Eels to just their third victory of the season.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/newcastle-knights-v-parramatta-eels-9193542">Parramatta Eels.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Dylan Brown anytime try scorer.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, May 16, 8:00pm AEST – Accor Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Bulldogs kept hold of top spot on the ladder last week, seeing off one of their main challengers in the Canberra Raiders.</p> <p>They didn’t just see them off, they mounted an insane comeback from 20-0 down, away from home no less, to end the red-hot Raiders five-game winning streak.</p> <p>After a performance like that, the Doggies will have our support for the foreseeable future, particularly this week against a Roosters side that has oscillated between the sublime and the ridiculous all year long.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/canterbury-bulldogs-v-sydney-roosters-9193610">Canterbury Bulldogs.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Jacob Kiraz first try scorer.</p>
<h2>The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, May 17, 3:00pm AEST – Suncorp Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Somehow, without anyone really paying attention, the New Zealand Warriors have climbed to second on the ladder.</p> <p>Unlike the Warriors of old, they have developed a knack for digging deep and grinding out thrilling wins.</p> <p>Case in point, their 15-14 win away against the Dragons last week. Halfback Luke Metcalf was once again the hero, scoring 11 of the Warriors' 15 points, including the decisive field goal.</p> <p>Staying in Aus, the Warriors now head to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Dolphins, who picked up a close win of their own last start.</p> <p>In fact, the Phins were a last-ditch miracle try-saving tackle from Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, away from losing to the bottom of the ladder Eels last week. So, we’re not giving them much hope against the high-flying Warriors here.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/dolphins-v-new-zealand-warriors-9193619">New Zealand Warriors.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Under total match points.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, May 17, 5:30pm AEST – Queensland Country Bank Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It could be quite the comedown for the Cowboys this week, as they try and find their bearings after participating in the craziest match of the season over the weekend.</p> <p>Two tries in the last nine minutes saw them take the visiting Panthers to golden point, with the scoreboard reading 30-30.</p> <p>That’s how it would stay, with neither team able to find a winner, meaning the Cowboys’ epic comeback was good for just a single competition point.</p> <p>Still, that’s one more point than Manly got, as the Sharks condemned them to their fourth loss in their last five.</p> <p>Unfortunately for all the Sea Eagles fans out there, we’re tipping them to fall to five in their last six, after the Cowboys are finished with them.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/nth-queensland-cowboys-v-manly-sea-eagles-9193620">North Queensland Cowboys.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Over total match points.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, May 17, 7:35pm AEST – Shark Park</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>What a game we have here. Easily the headline match of NRL round 11, Cronulla will take on the formidable task of welcoming the Melbourne Storm to Shark Park on Saturday night.</p> <p>This isn’t just any Storm side, this is a Storm side coming off a 64-0 demolition job of the Wests Tigers.</p> <p>Melbourne No.1 Ryan Papenhuyzen was the chief tormenter, running in four tires and kicking 10/11 conversions, for a personal points haul of 36.</p> <p>It’s no surprise there are now calls for him to be selected at fullback for NSW ahead of both incumbent Dylan Edwards and former Blues skipper James Tedesco.</p> <p>There’s another player participating in this match, however, that on form also has equal claim to that famous jersey.</p> <p>Sharks’ custodian Will Kennedy has been enjoying a stellar season in the Shire and finds himself outright first in the race for the Dally M after 10 rounds.</p> <p>It would take a superhuman effort to stop this Storm side, but where there’s a Will, there’s a way. Is a Cronulla upset on the cards? Unfortunately, we just can’t bring ourselves to tip it. Melbourne in a classic.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/cronulla-sharks-v-melbourne-storm-9193621">Melbourne Storm.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> SGM – Ryan Papenhuyzen and Will Kennedy anytime try scorers.</p>
<h2>Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, May 18, 2:00pm AEST – Suncorp Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Brisbane Broncos became the latest victims of this season’s unpredictability, going down to a struggling South Sydney side 22-14 on Friday night.</p> <p>The Broncos week then went from bad to worse with news breaking that Ben Hunt will miss the next 4-6 weeks with injury meaning there is now a hole in Brisbane’s halves that needs filling.</p> <p>All roads seem to lead to the return of Ezra Mam, who was left out last week, despite finally being available after a lengthy suspension.</p> <p>We’re tipping Mam to be the man Michael Maguire calls on to stop the rot at Red Hill. Fill Hunt’s shoes and lead the Broncos to victory over the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/brisbane-broncos-v-st-george-illawarra-dragons-9193626">Brisbane Broncos.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Ezra Mam anytime try scorer.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, May 18, 4:05pm AEST – GIO Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Raiders red-hot run came to an end last week after they blew a 20-0 lead at home against the table-topping Bulldogs.</p> <p>That was their first loss in five games, and it was against the top team in all the land. That means it’s far from alarm bells time for Ricky and his Raiders, and getting to play the 15th placed Titans at home should be just the tonic to return to winning ways in round 11.</p> <p>The Titans were on the right side of a 20-point swing last week, coming back from the brink to ambush the Knights.</p> <p>As spirited as that showing was, the Green Machine is an entirely different proposition to the struggling Novocastrians and we are giving the Titans little hope of finding another win down in the nation’s capital.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/canberra-raiders-v-gold-coast-titans-9193628">Canberra Raiders.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Xavier Savage first try scorer.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, May 18, 6:15pm AEST – Campbelltown Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The final game of NRL round 11 sees the Wests Tigers welcome the South Sydney Rabbitohs to Campbelltown Stadium on Sunday night.</p> <p>Latrell Mitchell led the Bunnies to a stunning upset over the Broncos on his return from suspension, with a showing that included two try-saving tackles, a cheeky try, and a mind-blowing 50m field goal.</p> <p>The only thing the Tigers were led to last week was the slaughter. They turned in a stinker for the ages at AAMI Park as Melbourne taught them a Rugby League lesson to the tune of 64 points.</p> <p>Unsurprisingly, we will not be backing a side that shipped 64 in their last start, particularly when an in-form Trell Mit is on the loose.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/wests-tigers-v-south-sydney-rabbitohs-9193630">South Sydney Rabbitohs.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Latrell Mitchell first try scorer.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Penrith Panthers – BYE</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>After playing 90 minutes last week in the tropics, there’s sure to be plenty of bruised and battered bodies in this Penrith team.</p> <p>Luckily, they have the bye this week, so they’ll have plenty of time for ice baths and stretching.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>NRL 2025 Premiership Odds</h2>
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