New Zealand vs Samoa Prediction – Pacific Championships Final 2025

The 2025 Pacific Championships come to a head this Sunday, when New Zealand take on Samoa in the final.

After both getting the better of Tonga in the tier one Pacific Cup, New Zealand and Samoa will reconvene for a repeat of their round 1 rendezvous, this time with the trophy on the line.

It was the Kiwis who came out on top back in the opening round of these Pacific Championships, seeing off Samoa 24-18 in the match of the tournament, so far.

Can New Zealand double down against the same opponent and take home the Pacific Championship, after coming up short in last year’s final to Australia?

Or will Samoa extract a measure of revenge for their opening round defeat and snatch the trophy away from the unsuspecting Kiwis? Let’s find out!

Looking for all the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the Pacific Championships Final? Check out our New Zealand vs Samoa predictions below.

 

New Zealand vs Samoa Betting Tips and Predictions

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

A quick look at the H2H market for this one, shows, unsurprisingly, that New Zealand are the favourites.

However, so impressive is this incarnation of Toa Samoa, that at the time of writing, there is well less than 1.00 difference between the two nations in the H2H betting.

This is despite the fact that the Toa are yet to defeat New Zealand in any of the six test matches the two nations have contested against one another.

The closest they’ve come to upsetting the Kiwis was three weeks ago and that game coupled with their World Cup Final appearance in 2022, should have them primed and ready for what awaits when they run out on Sunday.

Samoan fans have allegedly already bought up more than half of the tickets for this Final, and as impressive as NZ have been so far, there is a real feeling that the Toa are about to end their wait for an international trophy.

With human wrecking ball Payne Haas leading from the front and the ever-tricky Jarome Luai pulling the strings in the middle, we can’t resist jumping on the bandwagon and backing them home here.

Betting tip: Samoa.

 

First Tryscorer

A huge shout for Player of the Championships, Kiwi half Dylan Brown has been showing everyone exactly why the Newcastle Knights broke out the chequebook to pry him away from Parramatta.

The 25-year-old, who will head to the Hunter Valley in 2026 on a 10-year contract rumoured to be worth around $13 million, has already scored three tries in New Zealand’s opening two matches.

While a winger or a centre might seem like a more obvious pick, it’s hard to ignore a man in form, particularly one as naturally gifted as Brown.

Betting tip: Dylan Brown.

 

New Zealand vs Samoa Anytime Tryscorer Predictions

 

Keano Kini

Called in as a late injury replacement on the wing, before a further reshuffle saw him start at fullback against Tonga last week, Keano Kini did not pass up the opportunity that had been handed to him.

The Titans’ speedster bagged the opening try in his side’s 40-14 masterclass against toothless Tonga and while we haven’t selected him as first try scorer here, we fancy him to pop up on the scoreboard at some point against Samoa.

 

Kieran Foran

We just can’t help ourselves. After backing Kieran Foran last week in what could have been his final ever game as a professional footballer, we’re going again in what will definitely be his last hoorah.

 

Murray Taulagi

Murray Taulagi currently has a 100% strike rate at the 2025 Pacific Championships, having scored in both of Samoa’s games so far. One of which of course was against New Zealand, making him an ideal anytime try scorer candidate in our eyes.

 

New Zealand vs Samoa Predicted Team Lists

 

New Zealand Predicted Team List

1. Keano Kini

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Matt Timoko

4. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

5. Casey McLean

6. Dylan Brown

7. Kieran Foran

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Moses Leota

11. Briton Nikora

12. Isaiah Papali'i

13. Joseph Tapine

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Naufahu Whyte

16. Erin Clark

17. Xavier Willison

 

Samoa Predicted Team List

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

2. Brian To'o

3. Izack Tago

4. Deine Mariner

5. Murray Taulagi 

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Jarome Luai

8. Francis Molo

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Payne Haas

11. Jaydn Su'A

12. Simi Sasagi

13. Junior Paulo

14. Chanel Harris-Tavita

15. Benaiah Ioelu

16. Terrell May

17. Josh Papalii 

 

New Zealand vs Samoa Match Details

 

Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025.

Kick-off: 3:05pm AEST.

Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney.