Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction – Round 1 2026

The first game of the 2026 NRL season pits the Newcastle Knights against the North Queensland Cowboys all the way over in Las Vegas.

There’s plenty of plotlines that need exploring for both sides, whether it’s Newcastle’s multimillion dollar acquisition of Dylan Brown, or the pressure gauge that is already cranked to 11 on Cowboy’s coach Todd Payten.

There’s expectations everywhere you look for both of these teams as the Cowboys look to return to finals football and the Knights aim to put as much daylight as possible between themselves and a second straight wooden spoon.

A winning start will go a long way to remedying the ills of last season, but which club will have their prescription filled come fulltime here? Let’s find out.

For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of this season opener, check out our Knights vs Cowboys tips and predictions below.

 

Knights vs Cowboys Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

The Newcastle Nights and the North Queensland Cowboys get the honour of cutting the ribbon for the 2026 NRL season, when they go head-to-head in Las Vegas on Sunday arvo.

Both of these sides suffered disappointing seasons in 2025 and will be hoping to get off to positive starts here, with Newcastle in particular in need of major improvements after claiming the wooden spoon last year.

Those improvements have already started off the field, with a new coach and new five-eighth onboard, but will it be enough to see instant results?

The Cowboys, missed out on finals footy last term, despite easily having a top eight side on paper, so another September-less season could very easily spell the end for Todd Payten.

Early signs are good for the embattled coach, with two impressive pre-season wins already in the can.

The return of free-running back rower Heilum Luki after a long injury lay off has certainly caught the eye of those following the trials and the 24-year-old could be in for a big year.

Ok, decision time for this one. We are sure with their recent recruitment and a new man at the helm; Newcastle will be one of the most improved teams this year.

However, the wounds of yesteryear coupled with their pre-season performances, indicate that it is going to take some time for the Novocastrians to fully heal. We’re taking the Cowboys here.

Betting tip: North Queensland Cowboys.

 

First Try Scorer Prediction

Even though we’ve tipped the Cowboys to win here, it’s a Newcastle Knight who has grabbed our eye for the first try scorer market.

English winger Dom Young simply loves playing against this opponent. He has scored at least one try in each of his five previous appearances against North Queensland and is our pick to get the party started in Vegas.

Betting tip: Dominic Young.

 

Over/Under Prediction

Each of the last four matches between Newcastle and North Queensland have gone under the total match points line.

Betting tip: Under (40.5) total match points.

 

Knights vs Cowboys Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips

 

Braidon Burns

Braidon Burns has scored a try in each of North Queensland's last five matches.

 

Greg Marzhew

Greg Marzhew has scored a try in four of his last six appearances.

 

Tom Dearden

Tom Dearden has scored a try in each of North Queensland's last five matches against Newcastle.

 

Scott Drinkwater

Scott Drinkwater has scored at least one try in each of North Queensland's last four matches as a favourite.

 

Knights vs Cowboys Teams

 

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)

2. Dominic Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Dylan Brown

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Trey Mooney 

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Tyson Frizell

14. Sandon Smith

15. Mat Croker

16. Thomas Cant

17. Pasami Saulo

 

North Queensland Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Braidon Burns

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Tom Chester

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Jake Clifford

7. Tom Dearden (c)

8. Coen Hess

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. Heilum Luki

12. Sam McIntyre

13. Reuben Cotter (c)

14. Soni Luke

15. Thomas Mikaele

16. Harrison Edwards

17. Kai O'Donnell

 

Knights vs Cowboys Match Details

 

Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026.

Kick-off: 12:15pm AEST.

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.