<p>Minnesota will have the chance to win in front of their home crowd and end it as they sit 3-2 up, but will they take it on Friday, May 1 (12:30 AEST), or will Denver level it once again and force a decider?</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Quick Picks</h2><p><strong>Our pick: </strong>Timberwolves to win</p><p><strong>Value bet: </strong>Under 224.5 total points</p><p><strong>Long shot: </strong>Rudy Gobert to have 12+ rebounds</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Preview</h2><p>The series has been tight throughout, although Minnesota did manage to get themselves to within one game after Game 4.</p><p>They led the series 3-1 at this point, but an impressive performance from the Nuggets forced them into a fifth game. This is how the series has played out to this point:</p><p>&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Game 1: Nuggets won 116-105 in Denver</li><li>Game 2: Timberwolves won 119-114 in Denver</li><li>Game 3: Timberwolves won 113-96 in Minnesota</li><li>Game 4: Timberwolves won 112-96 in Minnesota</li><li>Game 5: Nuggets won 125-113 in Denver</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Given that Game 6 will be played in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves have two wins, the Nuggets are going to have to produce another emphatic performance if they are to remain in the NBA Playoffs.</p><p>Excluding the postseason, the last two years have been mixed between these two clubs. Eight games have been played, with Minnesota edging it 5-3.</p><p>In the four regular-season games between them this season, Denver won three. This included twice in Minnesota, so nothing appears assured…</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Betting Markets to Watch</h2><p>The odds favour the Nuggets to win in the moneyline, leading us to believe there’s <strong>value in the Timberwolves to win in the moneyline market </strong>worth exploring.</p><p>The Timberwolves have won each of their last seven Western Conference First Round home games, and have beaten the Nuggets twice at home in this series.</p><p>With one game enough to decide the best-of-seven series and home support, the Timbs have value in this market.</p><p>Elsewhere, we think there’s value worth exploring in the <strong>Under 224.5 total points market</strong>.</p><p>Four of the Timberwolves' last five games as home underdogs have gone under the total match points line, and we think this is a trend that will continue.</p><p>The two games in Minnesota so far were both significantly under this total.</p><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Our Prediction</h2><p>Check the latest <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/basketball-us/nba/denver-nuggets-at-minnesota-timberwolves-10417248">NBA Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting odds</a> at Sportsbet.</p><p>We think there’s <strong>value in the Timberwolves to win</strong>, and we believe this is the likely outcome.</p><p>Our long shot is a player prop, with <strong>Rudy Gobert to have 12+ rebounds</strong>.</p><p>He has recorded 12+ rebounds in each of his last eight home appearances against Western Conference opponents, and we think this can hit once again.</p>