France’s captain and talisman Antoine Dupont is out of the entire Nations Championship with a calf injury suffered in Toulouse’s Top 14 semi-final, and Les Bleus are also missing Six Nations player of the tournament Louis Bielle-Biarrey.

That double blow strips France of key personnel as they travel to Christchurch for the inaugural Nations Championship opener against a rested, full-strength All Blacks outfit.

• Competition: Nations Championship 2026 (Round 1, Southern Series)
• Venue: One New Zealand Stadium (Te Kaha), Christchurch
• Date: Saturday, July 5, 2026
• Kick-off: 5:10pm AEST

New Zealand vs France Form and Head to Head

New Zealand swept France 3-0 in their most recent home series in July 2025, winning 31-27, 43-17 and 29-19 against a full-strength French side. The average margin across those three Tests was 13 points, and the combined average sat at 55 points per match.

France did beat New Zealand 30-29 at Stade de France in November 2024, continuing their impressive home record, but touring the southern hemisphere in winter has been a different story entirely. France’s last visit to Christchurch in 2013 ended in a 30-0 shutout.

France come into this match off the back of a successful Six Nations campaign, winning the title with a dramatic 48-46 victory over England on the final day.

Their only loss came against Scotland. The All Blacks had a strong November tour, beating England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales but falling to France at Stade de France.

Dupont’s Absence Leaves France Scrambling for Answers

The loss of Dupont cannot be overstated. The 2021 World Rugby Player of the Year is France’s metronome, controlling tempo, directing the defensive line and creating try-scoring opportunities from nothing.

Paul Graou steps in at scrum-half, while Toulouse teammates Romain Ntamack, Peato Mauvaka, Manny Meafou and Alexandre Roumat have been added to the squad following their Top 14 title win. Fatigue is a genuine concern for those Toulouse players backing up from a gruelling domestic season.

Matthieu Jalibert has been named in the squad and will be a key figure in the backline with Dupont and Bielle-Biarrey absent.

For the All Blacks, Dave Rennie has named four uncapped players including Hurricanes wingers Fehi Fineanganofo and Josh Moorby, prop Xavier Numia and Blues flanker Anton Segner.

Ardie Savea captains the side, with Will Jordan and Tupou Vaa’i cleared after injury concerns. Wallace Sititi remains unavailable with an ankle injury, while Scott Barrett (back) and Tamaiti Williams (spinal infection) are notable absentees.

New Zealand vs France Betting Markets

The All Blacks are firm favourites for this one, and it is hard to argue against them given the circumstances. France’s personnel losses with Dupont and Bielle-Biarrey missing will rob the backline of its usual cutting edge, though Jalibert’s presence provides some creative spark.

You’ll find the full range of markets for this one over at Sportsbet, including match result, line betting, total points and anytime tryscorer options.

The player props market is worth a look here too. With New Zealand expected to dominate territory and build a healthy scoreline, their outside backs should see plenty of ball in space.

Will Jordan’s electric finishing and nose for the tryline make him a prime candidate in the anytime tryscorer marke if the All Blacks’ set-piece functions as expected.

New Zealand vs France Prediction: Our Pick

The All Blacks should be far too strong for a depleted France at Te Kaha, and Will Jordan looks a strong candidate to cross the stripe.

Check the New Zealand vs France odds for the full range of markets on this one.

New Zealand won all three home Tests against France in 2025 by an average of 13 points, and that was against a side with Dupont and Bielle-Biarrey both firing.

Without that duo, France lose their captain and their best attacking threat in one hit. The Toulouse contingent backing up from the Top 14 final adds a fatigue factor that could see legs tire in the second half.

One New Zealand Stadium will host its first Test match, giving Rennie’s side an emotional edge on top of their physical advantages.

Jordan’s pace and finishing ability make him a genuine threat against a reshuffled French backline that may struggle to contain New Zealand’s width.

There is always a risk that French pride produces something special in the opening quarter, but the depth of talent missing makes a sustained 80-minute challenge unlikely.