A quarter-final berth against Spain is the prize on offer in Berlin, and on paper this looks like a mismatch between an Opals side built for exactly this stage and an Italian outfit playing at their first World Cup since 1994.

Yet Italy have already shown at this tournament that they can smother a heavyweight opponent when the game plan clicks, and that alone keeps this knockout clash from being the formality the numbers suggest.

Quick Picks

Our Pick: Match Betting: Australia Women

Alternative Pick: Total Points inc Overtime: Under 137.5

A knockout test in Berlin

Australia arrive off a 2-1 group phase, averaging 75 points per game, while Italy scraped through in third spot in their group at 1-2 and have averaged just 55.3 points across the tournament.

That gap in output, allied to a knockout format where one bad quarter ends the campaign, frames this as a genuine test for Italy's resolve rather than a coin-flip contest.

Date: Thursday 10 September 2026

Kick-off: 4:45 am AEST

Local Kick-off: 8:45 pm CEST, Wednesday 9 September 2026

Venue: Berlin Arena, Berlin The Berlin Arena is a long way from the scale of the biggest NBA arenas, but it should still make for an intense knockout atmosphere.

How to watch Italy Women vs Australia Women in Australia

Australian fans wanting to follow this one live will need to set an early alarm. All Australian Opals games are available live on ESPN via Disney+ in Australia, Kayo Sports, or via Courtside 1981 for overseas viewers. 

Form lines tell different stories

Australia opened the group stage with 16-point wins over Puerto Rico and Türkiye before an 80-68 defeat to Belgium left them second in Group C.

Italy's path was less convincing overall but included a significant defensive performance. They beat Czechia 63-54, pushed the United States to the wire in a 55-52 defeat and then lost 71-51 to China.

That USA result gives Italy a credible route to keeping this close, while their modest scoring return also supports the alternative under selection.

Australia still hold the broader advantage, combining the stronger scoring average with more assists per game and much more recent experience at the business end of this tournament.

Italy Women vs Australia Women Prediction

Match Betting: Australia Women possibly looks like a value call because the Opals have created and scored more consistently across this tournament while earning the higher group finish.

Italy's defensive stand against the USA shows they can make a stronger opponent uncomfortable, particularly if the pace slows.

Sustaining that pressure against Australia's deeper offensive profile is the harder task, and the Opals have the better platform for the decisive quarter.