Italy vs South Africa Prediction and Betting Odds

The 2026 Nations Championship returns to the national teams' schedule, with Italy hosting South Africa in the first of their November assignments.

The Azzurri enter on the back of three losses in the first section of the tournament, while the Springboks were victorious in each of their three games.

Round 4 will take place in Turin on Saturday, November 7, with kick-off in Australia at 22:40 AEDT.

Quick Picks

Our pick: South Africa to win

Value bet: South Africa to win the 1st half by 8-14 points

Long shot: Italy in the handicap

Betting Preview

Italy couldn’t be in a worse position than they are ahead of this encounter against the Springboks. Entering the game following defeats to Japan, New Zealand and Australia, they will also be missing 16 players, including captain Michele Lamaro and Tommaso Menoncello.

Coach Gonzalo Quesada will know his team are up against it in this one, especially as there have been some defensive issues. The Azzurri conceded 131 points across the three losses, including 57 to the Wallabies and 47 against the All Blacks.

Back-to-back world champions South Africa enter the game as one of the favourites to win the Nations Championship, and are one of two teams to be 100% through the first three rounds. New Zealand are the other. However, they’ll still be without key players themselves.

Cheslin Kolbe, Eben Etzebeth, Andre Esterhuizen and Handre Pollard are all out injured, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rassie Erasmus look to use rotation and hand out debuts in this encounter for the back-to-back Rugby World Cup winners.

Still, the Springboks have proven powerful, having scored 130 points and conceded 49 in those three games so far. Plus, they easily won their last three encounters against Italy, all in 2025, by scores of 32-14, 45-0 and 42-24, although the final two were on home soil.

Betting Markets to Watch

Unsurprisingly, South Africa are heavy favourites to win in the moneyline. As value is short here, finding it elsewhere is worth exploring.

While Round 4 has thrown up some matches which could be fairly tight (we’re thinking Wales v Japan, or even Scotland v New Zealand), this is unlikely to be one of them.

The Springboks have absolutely obliterated everyone they have faced so far, winning by margins of 24 (England), 14 (Scotland), and 43 (Wales – scoreless). England, Scotland and Wales will regroup at home in the new year, and it is worth watching whether these November lessons shape things for anyone keen to bet on the Six Nations.

So, another big win margin is being reflected in the odds, with SA to win by 15+ points offers slightly better value than them as outright winners. If handicap and margin markets like these are unfamiliar, our guide to how to bet on the Rugby Championship breaks down how they work.

Alternative value worth exploring is in the same market, but for the first half . Despite Italy being banged up, Erasmus may focus on new players in the squad and rest key men, leaving potential value in the SA to win by 8-14 points margin.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Italy vs South Africa betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a South Africa win.

In our long shot, Italy to cover the handicap has some value. South Africa won by 18 points the last time these two nations met in Turin, in November 2025, suggesting the Azzurri could have something to offer.

The Springboks’ squad also includes six uncapped players, which could affect how fluid they are and how well they handle a hostile Italian atmosphere in Rome’s Stadio Olimpico.