Finland’s 83-76 upset in Espoo on December 1, 2025 flipped Group G on its head, but now France get their shot at revenge on home soil in Le Mans.

Both sides have already punched their tickets to the Second Round, yet this final First Round clash carries genuine stakes: group leadership, seeding implications, and bragging rights between two squads loaded with NBA talent.

• Competition: FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers, First Round, Group G (Window 3)
• Venue: Antarès, Le Mans, France
• Date: Monday, 6 July 2026
• Start Time: 4:30 AM AEST (Tuesday)

France vs Finland Form and Head to Head

The head-to-head record stands at 3-3 across their recent meetings, making this a genuine decider. Finland hold the momentum after pulling off December’s comeback in Espoo, where Edon Maxhuni poured in 20 points and the hosts produced a devastating 17-4 run in the closing minutes to seal a seven-point win.

France have won three of their last five games, with one loss coming against Finland. Since that defeat, Frédéric Fauthoux’s side have rattled off back-to-back victories, including a solid 79-63 win over Belgium.

Finland have won three of their last four games. Both teams enter this window in strong rhythm, but France will fancy their chances with home court advantage after tasting defeat in the reverse fixture.

Wembanyama Out, Gobert Back In

France lose their headline act with Victor Wembanyama unavailable following the Spurs’ deep NBA playoff run.

That’s a significant blow, but the cupboard is far from bare. Rudy Gobert returns to provide veteran steel, while Bilal Coulibaly (Washington Wizards), Zaccharie Risacher (Atlanta Hawks), and Alex Sarr (Washington Wizards) give Fauthoux several current NBA players plus several near-NBA contributors from EuroLeague ranks.

Finland’s hopes rest squarely on Lauri Markkanen. The Utah Jazz forward averaged 26.7 points per game during the 2025-26 NBA season and has committed to both July window games.

Alexander Madsen (14 points in the December 1 win) and Mikael Jantunen provide capable support, but Finland’s depth beyond Markkanen remains a tier below France’s roster.

France vs Finland Betting Markets

For the latest France vs Finland odds and markets, check out what’s available at Sportsbet. France are firm favourites at home, and the market reflects their roster depth even without Wembanyama.

The totals market is worth close attention here. December’s meeting produced 159 combined points in a high-octane contest, and both squads possess the offensive firepower to push the pace again.

Player props also offer intrigue, with Markkanen’s scoring burden for Finland making him a natural candidate for top scorer honours in what shapes as an absorbing individual battle against Gobert’s rim protection.

France vs Finland Prediction: Our Pick

France should get the job done at home, and we’re expecting plenty of points along the way.

The December loss stung, and Fauthoux’s squad will be desperate to avoid back-to-back defeats against the same opponent in qualifying.

Playing in Le Mans gives France a genuine edge that was absent in Espoo, and despite Wembanyama’s absence, multiple NBA-calibre starters plus Gobert’s defensive anchor should be enough to overpower a Finland side heavily reliant on Markkanen’s individual brilliance.

The 159 combined points from December’s meeting sets the tone for another free-flowing contest. Both teams attack with pace and purpose, and with qualification already secured, there’s little incentive for either coach to grind this one out defensively.

The risk sits with Finland’s ability to produce another late surge like that 17-4 closing run, but France at home with this roster have the depth to close out tight moments more convincingly this time around.