<p>Tonkin's $2.40 odds, form, and racing record — is this their moment? Check out what the experts think.</p>
<p><strong>Race 1 at Moonee Valley shapes up as a tactical battle</strong>, with Tonkin looking perfectly placed to capitalise on the 1000-metre distance.</p>
<p>The Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained gelding boasts a perfect track and distance record, having won first-up in impressive time over this exact course.</p>
<p><strong>Zac Lloyd's tactical nous could prove decisive here.</strong> The Sydney hoop has proven speed to work with and the flexibility to take a sit if needed, crucial factors given Tonkin's tendency to peak when stretched beyond his optimal trip.</p>
<p>Last start's 1100-metre effort saw him look the winner before fading late, making this drop back to 1000 metres at his beloved Valley a shrewd placement.</p>
<p>With Lloyd's race-reading ability and Tonkin's proven affinity for Moonee Valley's unique characteristics, this combination presents genuine value at the current quote.</p>
<p>Odds subject to change.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-racing/australia-nz/moonee-valley/race-1-9759568">Markets available here.</a></p>
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