Victoria Derby Day 2026 Betting Prediction and Odds

2026 Victoria Derby Day Prediction and Odds

First run in 1855, the Group 1 Howden Victoria Derby is the feature race of Victoria Derby Day, a standout day in Australian horse racing.

The event takes place at Flemington, Melbourne, and is steeped in tradition. This year's Victoria Derby Day is Saturday, October 31, with racing starting from 12:20 AEDT. With little separating the top of the Victoria Derby odds, let's take a look at some of the day's action!

Quick Picks

Our pick: Stormy Marco to win

Value bet: True Rebel place

Long shot: Murshidi each-way

Our Prediction

Our prediction is Stormy Marco to win, with True Rebel to place as our value pick.

Our long shot is Murshidi each-way. He won the Listed Geelong Classic over 2,200m, narrowly beating fellow Derby runner Icy You. He showed determination under pressure rather than simply outsprinting weaker opposition.

It has also been suggested the extra 300m could suit his profile, making him a legitimate contender despite longer odds than the favourites.

Each-way makes more sense than a straight win bet, though, as Geelong was his first win at his fifth start and he remains relatively inexperienced.

Betting Preview

Nine races are scheduled throughout the day, with the seventh being the main feature of the meet: the Group 1 Victoria Derby.

The full schedule is below (all times AEDT):

• Carbine Club Stakes (Group 3) - 1,600m - 12:20
• The Vanity (Group 3) - 1,400m - 13:00
• Wakeful Stakes (Group 2) - 2,000m - 13:40
• Rising Fast Stakes (Group 3) - 1,200m - 14:20
• The Damien Oliver (Group 2) - 1,400m - 15:00
• Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1) - 1,200m - 15:40
• Victoria Derby (Group 1) - 2,500m - 16:20
• Empire Rose Stakes (Group 1) - 1,600m - 17:00
• Asahi Super Dry Sprint (Group 3) - 1,100m - 17:40

There are three Group 1s in total on Saturday, with one either side of the Victoria Derby. With that much Group 1 prize money on offer across the card, it is worth seeing how the day stacks up against Australia's richest horse races.

Betting Markets to Watch

The Victoria Derby is the main feature of the day's meet, and is likely to attract most of the attention. Cormier and Stormy Marco head the Victoria Derby betting, with little to separate them.

Cormier's odds reflect encouraging recent form, having finished third (by 1.7 lengths) in the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick over 2,000m. The Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich-trained colt is expected to appreciate the step up in distance, as the confidence in his odds shows.

However, this is going to be the longest he's ever raced, so stamina definitely comes into the equation.

Stormy Marco finished a place behind Cormier in the same race, and Cormier also has the better draw (barrier 3 compared to 15).

Still, Stormy Marco is a legitimate contender here, with James McDonald taking the ride. Again, it's a significant step up in distance.

True Rebel comes off a narrow but impressive Group 2 win at Flemington, which is why there's value in him, even to place.

He can handle the track; the biggest question is stamina, and whether he'll run out the 2,500m. Billy Egan takes the ride from barrier 16, which isn't particularly favourable.

In short: Cormier has the most attractive starting position, Stormy Marco has James McDonald aboard, and True Rebel brings winning form.

With three Group 1s and a packed nine-race card to work through, you can find today's racing tips for the rest of the Flemington meeting, then check the latest racing odds at Sportsbet as the markets firm up.

Odds are subject to change.