Melbourne Cup Forecast 2026

Melbourne Cup Weather and Track Rating Summary:

• Flemington was rated Good 4 on Monday morning. The rail moves out to 3m for Cup Day.
• The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting 7 to 25mm of rain in Melbourne on Monday, with showers clearing on Tuesday morning.
• We're predicting a Soft 6 for the 3:00pm AEDT jump of the Melbourne Cup.

It's Cup week, so naturally Melbourne is throwing four seasons at Flemington inside 36 hours.

The track is a Good 4 right now, but Monday's rain is set to push it into the soft range before the $10.2 million Melbourne Cup jumps on Tuesday.

For the latest forecast, track rating and odds, check out our 2026 Melbourne Cup forecast below!

Melbourne Cup Weather Forecast 2026

Monday is the wet one.

The Bureau of Meteorology has showers increasing across Melbourne throughout the day, with 7 to 25mm forecast and the chance of a thunderstorm.

The good news is that it's expected to move through overnight. The Bureau's hourly outlook has a shower or two hanging around until about 10am on Tuesday, clouds through the middle of the day, then mostly sunny skies from around 2pm.

The top is 18 degrees, but it won't feel like it. Bureau senior meteorologist Dean Narramore has said a fresh southerly will make Cup Day feel cool, although the big race itself is shaping as a dry one.

In other words: brolly for the morning, jacket for the afternoon, and maybe rethink the suede shoes.

Melbourne Cup Track Rating Prediction

Track rating Good 4 on Monday morning. Rail out 3m for Cup Day.

Flemington track manager Liam O'Keeffe said the surface pulled up well after Derby Day. It took 3.8mm of rain during racing on Saturday and was still rated Good 4 on Sunday morning.

The rail moves from the true position out to 3m for Tuesday, which covers most of the wear around the home turn.

O'Keeffe was working off a forecast of 5 to 10mm on Monday and expects the track to be a Soft 5 or Soft 6 by Cup Day.

The catch? The Bureau's latest forecast has pushed the top end of Monday's rain out to 25mm.

If the upper end of the forecast lands, a Soft 7 isn't out of the question. If Monday's rain falls short and that southerly dries things out on Tuesday, it could upgrade to a Soft 5 by the time they jump in Race 7.

Track prediction: Soft 6.

Which Melbourne Cup Runners Suit a Soft Track?

Rain-affected Cups are nothing new. Gold Trip in 2022 and Half Yours last year both won on soft ground.

Ciaron Maher's Juja Kibo is the obvious one. He won The Metropolitan at Randwick on a soft track on October 3, then backed it up with a win in the Moonee Valley Cup. Any give in the ground only helps.

Bjorn Baker's So You Are arrives on a four-race winning streak, and one of those wins was the ATC St Leger at Randwick in soft going. He's also carrying just 54kg after lumping big weights all spring.

Going the other way is Joseph O'Brien's Trustyourinstinct. The Curragh Cup winner's best form has come on firmer ground, so a Soft 6 or worse is a genuine query for one of the top chances.

The official track rating will be updated on Tuesday morning, so keep an eye on it before locking in your final selections.

Got your Cup Day plan sorted? Head to the Sportsbet racing schedule and check out the full Flemington card before the track rating comes out on Tuesday morning.

*Odds are subject to change.