DP World Tour Championship Prediction and Betting Odds

Jon Rahm has played one DP World Tour event since LIV Golf folded, and he won it by two shots at 23 under.

He now heads to the Earth Course, where he has already lifted this trophy three times, with the defending champion staying home and the Race to Dubai still undecided.

McIlroy needs a win to be certain of a record-equalling eighth title, while Chacarra sits about 534 points clear of him.

Before we get to our full preview, here are the key details:

• Course: Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai
• Dates: Thursday 12 November to Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Purse: US$10 million (about A$14.5 million) purse this size is a reminder of how much the Race to Dubai feeds into the earnings of the richest golfers in the world.
• Defending Champion: Matt Fitzpatrick (not playing)
• Broadcast: Fox Sports 503 and Kayo, from around 6pm AEDT each evening

Earth Course Profile: Why the Same Names Keep Winning the DP World Tour Championship

The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course plays as a long par 72 at 7,706 yards, and it has a habit of rewarding the same elite ball strikers.

McIlroy, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick have won nine of the 14 editions since 2012 between them, which tells you how rarely a roughie gets home here.

It's a 50-man field with no cut, so everyone gets four rounds and a slow Thursday isn't fatal, but with warm desert conditions expected, nobody in contention can afford a quiet weekend.

DP World Tour Championship Contenders: Rahm's Return and a Race to Dubai Decider

Rahm looked anything but rusty in Abu Dhabi. In his first start since LIV collapsed, he never shot higher than 67 (65-67-66-67), claimed a record sixth Rolex Series title, and jumped from 51st to sixth in the Race to Dubai.

He can still take the season title if he wins and Chacarra finishes outside the top eight. McIlroy finished third at Yas Links despite a two-shot penalty on Thursday, and that result lifted him to second in the standings.

He has won here three times and lost a playoff to Fitzpatrick last year, and a win this week would give him an eighth Race to Dubai title, level with Colin Montgomerie.

Chacarra has three wins in his first full season, but a tie for 22nd last week kept the door open. Tyrrell Hatton arrives off a runner-up finish, while world No. 44 Adam Scott leads the Australian interest.

DP World Tour Championship Betting Markets: Outrights, Top 10s, and Head to Heads

With Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, and Ludvig Åberg all missing, the top of the outright market is thinner than usual, and that leaves Rahm and McIlroy clear of the pack.

The top five and top 10 markets suit form players like Hatton, while a McIlroy versus Chacarra head to head mirrors the Race to Dubai battle itself.

First-round leader is also interesting in a 50-man field where one hot opening round can change everything. If you are new to markets like first-round leader and head to heads, our golf betting guide breaks down how each one works.

If McIlroy gets off to a fast start on Thursday, expect the latest golf outright odds to move quickly, because a win would hand him the season title as well.

DP World Tour Championship Prediction: Rahm to Win a Record Fourth Title

Our pick is Jon Rahm to win. He's one of only two players in the field with three wins on this course, and he arrives in the best form of anyone after a 23-under week in Abu Dhabi.

His last DP World Tour win before that came here in 2022, and the Earth Course's length suits his power game as well as any course on the schedule.

He was open about feeling tired after a hectic fortnight, which is the main risk, and McIlroy has more to play for than anyone. On a course Rahm knows this well, though, he's the one to beat.