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BMW Championship Prediction and Betting Odds

19/08/2026|SB Staff|Golf Tips & Predictions
BMW championship

 

The BMW Championship is the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, with the action taking place at Bellerive Golf Course in St. Louis, USA.

The first round will be played on Thursday, August 20, with the top 50 players advancing after qualifying from last weekend's first stage at TPC Southwind in the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Scheffler to win

Value bet: McIlroy as an each-way to win

Long shot: Hovland as an each-way to win

 

Betting Preview

 

With the field having started at 70, last week’s event saw 20 players eliminated, including some big names. Jordan Spieth, Keith Mitchell, Harris English, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Shane Lowry and Brian Harman all failed to make it through.

As predicted in our first round preview, Scottie Scheffler raced to victory at TPC Southwind, with the American winning by a huge eight strokes.

He recorded a score of 17-under, having only had a two-shot lead entering the final day. Si Woo Kim finished second on 9-under for the event, with Sam Burns and Alex Noren tied for third on 8-under.

Elsewhere, Tommy Fleetwood would finish tied in 7th place. The Englishman was running nicely, but was hampered by four bogeys on his back nine, meaning he scored six-under for the tournament.

Rory McIlroy was playing his first action for four weeks after a break, and would struggle to a 66th-placed finish with a score of 8-over. Justin Rose had the best final round, recording 6-under for the day, pushing him to finish level par for the event.

Only Scheffler and Sepp Straka got close to Rose’s round, both going round in 4-under.

And although he’ll need a miracle to overhaul Scheffler, Aussie Adam Scott looked in decent form. He sits tied in 12th and enjoyed an opening round of 66 (-4).

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

Scheffler remains the defending champion of the event, having won in 2025 by two strokes at Caves Valley Golf Club. He defeated Robert MacIntyre in that event, who suffered a final-round collapse.

This year’s event is held at Bellerive, and is only the second time this particular tournament has been held here, despite the course being a staple on the PGA TOUR.

After his dominant performance last weekend, Scheffler will likely be the big favourite to win again. He has serious momentum on his side, although he has never played at this course.

This could make his price a little shorter than it ought to be, suggesting alternative value is potentially elsewhere.

McIlroy may have value after a disappointing return. With the course 7,448 yards long and a par 70, he can use his long, accurate driving to his advantage.

This could give him more birdie opportunities than others. When Rory drives it well, he can take apart long par 4s, attack the par 5s, and generate enough birdie chances to win a no-cut, 50-man event.

 

Our Prediction

 

Check the latest golf betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our pick is for Scheffler to win, as we think it’s likely he’ll continue with the momentum he has gained from last weekend’s dominant performance.

Our value pick is McIlroy , as he’ll want to bounce back from a disappointing St. Jude, and the course offers him plenty of opportunities to record a big score without fear of making the cut.

The long shot here is Norwegian Viktor Hovland . He finished tied-19th last week (4-under) after starting well before petering out in the final two rounds.

He is a former BMW Championship winner (2023) and has the length, ball-striking, and approach play needed to mount a serious challenge at Bellerive.

Top 10
21 Aug 00:03
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Young
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Åberg
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rory McIlroy
Sam Burns
Si Woo Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Xander Schauffele
Chris Gotterup
Collin Morikawa
Jake Knapp
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Wyndham Clark
Kurt Kitayama
Maverick McNealy
Michael Thorbjornsen
Min Woo Lee
Russell Henley
Ryan Gerard
Tom Kim
Adam Scott
Ben Griffin
J.J. Spaun
Justin Rose
Michael Brennan
Nicolai Højgaard
Rickie Fowler
Robert MacIntyre
Sungjae Im
Alex Fitzpatrick
Alex Noren
Alex Smalley
Bud Cauley
Gary Woodland
Jacob Bridgeman
Kristoffer Reitan
Ryan Fox
Akshay Bhatia
J.T. Poston
Nico Echavarria
Aaron Rai
Eric Cole
Ryo Hisatsune
Sahith Theegala
Sepp Straka
Matt McCarty

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