The Formula 1 2026 season heads to Italy with the Monza F1 GP for the 13th race on the F1 2026 calendar – and Lando Norris has some momentum, holding back-to-back wins.

Taking place at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza racetrack, lights out will be at 23:00 AEST on Sunday, September 7.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Russell to win

Value bet: Hamilton each-way

Long shot: Verstappen each-way

Betting Preview

Brit Norris is the in-form driver, having picked up his first win on the season at the Hungarian GP, before claiming another victory at the Dutch GP. He claimed victory there by over 11 seconds, with Kimi Antonelli finishing second and team-mate George Russell finishing third.

The defending champion has managed to add a significant amount of points to his total, but arguably remains out of contention to retain his title, having left a little too much to do.

It hasn’t helped that Antonelli has had a career-best season, while Norris has also admitted he isn’t happy with his car despite those two recent victories. Antonelli leads the way with 242 points, with Russell and Lewis Hamilton both on 183 in joint-second.

Now to Monza, and the championship race could be blown right open. Antonelli is expected to face a penalty of at least 10 grid places, with Toto Wolff confirming an engine change will take place. This could even force Antonelli to start his home race at the back of the grid.

This could open things up for Ferrari at their home race. There is always added expectation here, but they’ve been performing well this season. Hamilton and Charles Leclerc both have a win each, while they have combined for nine podium finishes so far. They finished fourth and fifth respectively in the Netherlands.

It has been suggested that the team has targeted Monza for a potential aero package and an evolved power unit. Power deployment and traction count on the exits of the two chicanes, while top speed is especially visible on the long run to Variante del Rettifilo and through Curva Grande.

Betting Markets to Watch

With Antonelli facing a huge uphill challenge from the beginning, the market favours Norris to win . However, his odds may be considered short, as he has admitted he currently isn’t happy with his car.

Russell is the next-best priced . He has been more consistently near the front across the season, with two wins already on the board. At the same time, Mercedes’ underlying pace and straight-line efficiency should translate well to Monza’s low-downforce demands.

Our value pick is in Ferrari’s Hamilton . Still, much will depend on whether Ferrari’s planned power-unit upgrade is both fitted in time and performs as expected. The change is expected to be worth about two-tenths of a second and is particularly relevant at power-sensitive Monza. If you are weighing up an each-way play against a straight win, our guide on how to bet on F1 races runs through how those markets differ.

Our Prediction

Check the latest F1 betting odds at Sportsbet. Our prediction is for Russell to win, with Hamilton offering value .

A long shot is Max Verstappen , despite his crash out on the first lap. He won the 2025 Italian Grand Prix at the Monza Circuit, setting a new record for the fastest race time in Formula 1 history. While his car isn’t right and he has only four podiums this season, he has the ability to produce a top performance.