Mexico City GP Prediction: Can Antonelli Seal The Title

Could Kimi Antonelli, already one of the youngest F1 drivers ever, become the sport’s youngest world champion in Mexico? Well, it’s looking likely, as he needs just two points to do it.

And given how he has raced all season, it is highly likely that he’ll secure the title in Mexico, but could he put the icing on the cake and win the race too?

The race will get underway on Monday, November 2, with lights out at 07:00 AEDT at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez track.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Antonelli to win

Value bet: Leclerc each-way

Long shot: Alonso to have a Top 10 finish

Betting Preview

Much of the race will centre on whether Antonelli can claim the title. He is so close to doing so, and after a solid performance in Austin last weekend, many expect him to do so with complete control.

He is in such a strong position that if he doesn’t finish in the top nine and claim those two points, he will still be champion if neither George Russell nor Lewis Hamilton win the race.

Max Verstappen is likely to be the biggest challenger to Antonelli on the day. Despite failing to make it three wins on the bounce last weekend, Verstappen has had six consecutive podium finishes.

He likes this track too, having won here on five occasions (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023). The 2023 win was extra special, as it was a record-breaking 16th win of the season.

He is a serial winner in this sport, and for context on who has won the most F1 titles it is worth a look at the all-time championship records.

Charles Leclerc is another driver who will enter Mexico City with some confidence, as his Ferrari has been upgraded.

He finished second in Austin last weekend with the modifications, so if he can carry that performance into Mexico, there’s every reason for him to challenge.

A notable storyline of this race is that it is native Sergio Perez’s 300th F1 race. It’s unlikely to change much for the Cadillac driver, but it’s a data point.

Betting Markets to Watch

Verstappen leads the way in the early F1 betting as favourite to win the Mexico City GP.

We noted his upturn in form and favourable history with the track, but Red Bull’s upgrades have made him a consistent threat for victory again, rather than merely an occasional challenger.

Given his competitive nature, he will be wanting to make it a winning drive on Monday.

Antonelli is slightly behind him in the odds. There’s no need for him to go all out in this race, knowing he's all but guaranteed to be the newest world champion.

Still, he has value, following his confident drive last weekend in Austin and having won half of the races this season (9). In Austin, he finished 13 seconds ahead of Leclerc in second, highlighting the dominance his Mercedes car has had all season.

Leclerc is our value pick. As outlined above, his car has had significant upgrades and things appear to be going well.

He is finding a better balance with his car, and has admitted he is more comfortable with it. A podium finish wouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

Our Prediction

Check the latest F1 betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is for Antonelli to win, with Leclerc offering value.

Our long shot is Fernando Alonso to have a Top 10 finish. His Austin pace was reportedly stronger than his result suggested, with contact involving Alex Albon compromising his race.