The race is scheduled for Sunday, June 7, with the lights scheduled to go out at 23:00 AEST. Can Mercedes ace Kimi Antonelli continue his 2026 season dominance, or will Monaco throw up a couple of surprises? Let's take a look.

Quick Picks

• Our pick: Antonelli to win/each-way
• Value bet: Leclerc to win/each-way
• Long shot: Verstappen in the each-way

Betting Preview

The Monaco GP circuit is a very short, tight street track on normal roads in Monte Carlo and La Condamine, with 19 mostly slow corners and just one DRS zone.

Its narrow layout, lack of run-off and single proper straight make overtaking extremely hard, so qualifying and track position are crucial, and pit stop strategy in F1 focuses on avoiding the long, time-costly pit lane.

Mercedes definitely enter the race in dominant form, with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell winning every race between them.

However, with the race heading to Monaco, Ferrari look better suited to the low-speed layout, while this is the first race where Mercedes' controversial engine "loophole" has been closed by a rule tweak.

Mercedes' car has been outstanding on a mix of circuits, which means their baseline package, which involves the aerodynamics, the mechanical grip and tyre strategy in Formula 1, is extremely strong even before any engine advantage.

Nonetheless, Ferrari will likely be a contender due to their superior low-speed traction and rotation, which are ideal for the very slow corners where getting the car turned and back on the throttle early is absolutely vital.

Betting Markets to Watch

The current betting odds ahead of qualifying have Charles Leclerc as the favourite. Indeed, he is a Monaco native, and has historically been able to extract massive one-lap performance here even in non-dominant machinery.

This year he arrives with a Ferrari that is particularly strong in traction and low-speed rotation, which is exactly what you want for Casino, Mirabeau, the Hairpin and the Swimming Pool complex. He has track knowledge, and after a strong Canadian GP performance, he'll have added confidence.

Still, it's worth taking a look at Kimi Antonelli. The Italian is in rich form, having won four of the five races to have been completed.

He finished second in Australia, but has won each race since.

The main question will be about his ability to navigate a tight street circuit and whether he can compete with Ferrari's edge. As one of the youngest F1 drivers ever to lead a championship, his composure under pressure will be tested.

Our Prediction

Check the latest F1 odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Antonelli is likely to get the job done and continue his impressive season, especially at the value he has been priced at.

A long shot is Max Verstappen. He and Red Bull have had a poor season so far, but he's been improving in recent races.

He has won the race twice in 9 appearances, but a slower car could help him this time around, so don't be surprised if we see him on the podium here.

For a full breakdown of the season ahead, check out the F1 2026 calendar.