This weekend will see the return of the iconic Spa-Francorchamps track, as the world’s best Formula One drivers will contest the Belgian GP.

With lights out scheduled for 23:00 AEST on Sunday, July 19, there’ll be plenty to look out for in this upcoming race. Is the tide starting to turn against Mercedes?

Quick Picks

Our pick: Russell to win/each-way

Value bet: Leclerc to win/each-way

Long shot: Verstappen in the each-way

Betting Preview

Charles Leclerc finally broke the stranglehold Mercedes had been enjoying at the British GP last weekend, as Ferrari raced to the finish and claimed maximum points for the second time in three races.

It was a good weekend for Ferrari, as Lewis Hamilton also got on the podium, with Mercedes’ George Russell sandwiched between them. For Hamilton, it came after winning the Barcelona-Catalunya GP by almost 20 seconds.

Kimi Antonelli retains the overall lead at the top of the F1 drivers’ leaderboard, but after some poor recent races, his lead is narrowing. Still, with five wins and seven podiums, the 19-year-old remains a threat at Spa-Francorchamps.

The track historically rewards those who are ultra-strong in high‑speed corners, adaptable in mixed conditions, and comfortable with long, flowing laps.

However, the track comes with an extra tilt this year toward the guys in the most efficient aero packages, with Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren among those likely to benefit.

Betting Markets to Watch

The current betting odds have Antonelli as the early favourite to win the race, although there isn’t too much value in backing him.

In fact, given that he has had a DNF, a 3rd-place finish, and a 15th-place finish in his last three, there may be some concern about how his season is turning out. He may be better value in each-way, just as there isn’t as much confidence in him as the odds suggest.

His team-mate Russell arguably has better value . Mercedes do have the profile to excel in Belgium with their car, and the Brit is in good form. Since the Barcelona-Catalunya GP, he has had two second-placed finishes and a victory (Austria). He makes more sense as a potential winner, especially as his odds are longer than Antonelli's.

Hamilton and Leclerc offer value given Ferrari’s upturn in recent races. Spa-Francorchamps suits their car package, with Ferrari’s good overall balance and energy‑recovery management offering advantages. If they can perform and the car remains reliable, they’ll have a shot.

Our Prediction

Check the latest F1 betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is for Russell to claim victory. We think he is in good form at the moment and appears to have the best car in F1 currently. Antonelli has had some reliability issues, which makes his case a little weaker for us, as we don’t quite know what we’ll get from him in Belgium.

Our long shot at Spa-Francorchamps is in Max Verstappen. After a DNF at the British GP, he’ll be aiming to prove a point at one of his home races. The issue is the reliability of Red Bull’s car, which is why he is a big long shot.