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Bahrain GP F1 Prediction and Betting Odds

SB Staff|02/10/2026|
Bahrain Grand Prix (Sepang) Prediction

 

The rescheduled Bahrain GP will take place this weekend, although it won’t actually be in Bahrain – it will take place in Sepang, Malaysia.

George Russell will be gunning for back-to-back victories after leading Mercedes to a win at last week’s Azerbaijan GP, but can he make it a treble here?

Lights out will be on Sunday, October 4, at 17:00 AEST.

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Antonelli to win

Value bet: Russell each-way

Long shot: Hamilton each-way

 

Betting Preview

 

The race is heading to Malaysia instead of Bahrain after the conflict in the Middle East earlier in the year and the ongoing issues it presents.

Formula 1 has not visited Sepang since 2017, but the sport will return to the beloved track almost a decade later – and fans of F1 nostalgia are going to love that.

You can see how this rescheduled round fits into the Formula 1 2026 championship calendar for the rest of the season.

The drivers, though, are likely not to love the weather, with storms and heavy rain being forecast for the weekend. This could mean they encounter plenty of challenges during the race, especially if they don’t have any or much experience on this track.

It will be the first time that active aero is used at this track, which partially replaced DRS under the new F1 2026 regulations, allowing drivers to open and close their rear wings at different parts of each track.

It has also been confirmed by the FIA that there will be four straight-mode zones in this race, with the first down the start/finish straight, followed by the next out of Turn 3, for the short straight into Turn 4.

Straight Mode can also be used during the short straight between Turns 8 and 9, before the final section down the back straight before Turn 15.

Three of the current drivers on the grid have won in Malaysia at Sepang – Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have each won once, while Fernando Alonso has won three times in his career here.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Antonelli remains the betting favourite ahead of this race, given that he has plenty of momentum.

Although he made an error in qualifying in Azerbaijan, he recovered well to finish fifth and score 10 points. He’ll be hoping for an error-free race here, but this is a track in which he’s never raced before in F1.

That inexperience is something that could go against him, despite being an eight-time winner this season. That’s why there may be value in his team-mate Russell winning.

Mercedes appear to have the best car at the moment, while Sepang’s long straights, fast corners and heat reward aerodynamic efficiency, race pace and tyre management – all areas in which Mercedes have excelled so far this season.

Verstappen was the last driver to win in Sepang, but that was nine years ago. Red Bull are very different this season, and they’ve not quite found a winning formula with this year’s regulations.

Still, he knows the track well, and that could play into his advantage after a strong performance in Baku last weekend.

 

Our Prediction

 

Check the latest F1 betting odds at Sportsbet.

If you are new to the sport, our guide on how to bet on Formula 1 walks through the main markets before you lock in a selection for this race.

Our prediction is for Antonelli to win, with Russell offering value.

A long shot is Hamilton each way. He has a lot of experience with this track and is a former winner.

His Ferrari has been performing reasonably well throughout the season, and he is really good in the wet. It’s possible that Hamilton can stay in the race here rather than challenge for victory, which is why it’s better to go for an each-way shot on him.

George Russell
Kimi Antonelli
Max Verstappen
Lando Norris
Charles Leclerc
Lewis Hamilton
Oscar Piastri
Isack Hadjar
Alex Albon
Arvid Lindblad
Carlos Sainz
Esteban Ocon
Fernando Alonso
Franco Colapinto
Gabriel Bortoleto
Lance Stroll
Liam Lawson
Nico Hulkenberg
Oliver Bearman
Pierre Gasly
Sergio Perez
Valtteri Bottas

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