Mercedes have been the early pace-setters of this year's season, although many haven't been left too surprised as they appear to be the constructor that has managed to get to grips with the new car regulations the best. With the 2026 F1 race schedule now in full swing, the Silver Arrows look primed to continue their dominance.
Quick Picks
Our pick: Russell to win/each-way
Value bet: Antonelli to have the fastest lap
Long shot: Hamilton in the each-way
Betting Preview
After the first two races of the year, Mercedes certainly appear to have the edge over the rest of the competition. They've had 1-2 finishes in both races so far, with each driver sharing a win. George Russell claimed victory in Australia, while Kimi Antonelli managed to claim the race in China. Will they make it a third successive victory for Mercedes?
It's worth noting that Antonelli had the fastest lap in last year's edition, clocking 1:30.965 on lap 50; it also happened to be a lap record for the circuit. Max Verstappen had pole and won, with the McLaren pair securing 2nd and 3rd. Mercedes finished 5th and 6th, splitting the Ferrari pair.
A total of 53 laps are raced, with last year's race seeing all 20 drivers complete it. Lewis Hamilton has five wins at this racetrack, while Verstappen has won it four times. The only other active driver to have won multiple races at the Suzuka Circuit is Fernando Alonso (twice).
Historically, this race had traditionally been one of the final races on the calendar, but has since been put in this spot since 2024.
Betting Markets to Watch
Looking ahead to the upcoming race, it's worth noting that the odds are favouring the Mercedes duo to finish in the top two positions, with George Russell the most likely to win. Russell is favourite because he's in the fastest car, has the best recent qualifying stats, and is more experienced than Antonelli.
The British driver has already taken pole in Australia and a Sprint pole in China, underlining his one‑lap pace with the new regulation‑cycle machinery. He's been viewed as the most consistent "complete" driver outside Verstappen.
Still, Antonelli will offer value in the each-way market. He offers potential value because his true‑win probability is likely higher than his price reflects, while the place payout still gives you a soft return if Mercedes‑dominance means he's only just short of the win. As one of the youngest drivers in F1 history, his rapid adaptation to the sport has been remarkable.
Our Prediction
Check the latest F1 odds at Sportsbet.
Our pick to likely win the 2026 Japanese F1 Grand Prix is Russell as an each-way bet. We think Mercedes are likely to dominate the race after their strong start, with Antonelli offering good value in the each-way as well.
Hamilton and Ferrari started to pick up momentum in China after a positive race, and could challenge for a podium spot as outsiders. He has experience of winning this race, and if he finds the form he showed in the last race, he could challenge the Mercedes duo. Understanding how F1 strategy works will be crucial at Suzuka, where tyre management and pit timing often decide the winner.
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