South Africa vs Australia 1st Test Prediction and Betting Odds

Australia remain in South Africa for a three-Test Series this spring, with the 1st Test set for Durban.

The Test will start on Friday, October 9, with the first ball to be bowled at 17:30 AEST. If required, the Test is slated to finish on Tuesday, October 13 (local time), potentially being in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Quick Picks

Our pick: South Africa to win

Value bet: Bavuma to Reach 50+ Runs 1st innings

Long shot: Smith to Reach 100+ Runs 1st innings

Betting Preview

The two nations have been engaging in white-ball cricket more recently, having played three ODIs. Australia are coming off the back of a victory, having won by the DLS method in the third.

However, it won’t be lost on them that they lost the first two ODIs, having batted second in each.

Still, Test cricket will present unique challenges compared to limited-over matches, and those wearing the Baggie Greens may feel a little more confident about their chances.

In August, they managed to rectify their shock defeat to Bangladesh in the first Test by easily winning the second by an innings and 51 runs.

Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon could all be involved, as they were in the infamous 2018 series, when the Baggie Greens were caught using sandpaper. Cameron Green has been ruled out with injury though.

For the South Africans, Kagiso Rabada could return, which could signal trouble for the Aussies. 

The quick took nine wickets in the 2025 World Test Championship final between these two nations, who rank as number 1 (Australia) and 2 (South Africa) in the world rankings in this format.

Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj could also be available, as could Anrich Nortje, who would play his first Test match for the Proteas since February 2023.

Betting Markets to Watch

Australia are considered to be the favourites in the early Test match odds. However, there might be better value in the hosts. It’s the first time in this format since the infamous 2018 scandal, which South Africa won.

The ‘Temba Bavuma to Reach 50+ Runs in 1st Innings’ market has significant value in the ‘Yes’ outcome. 

Over the last three years in Tests, Bavuma has played 13 matches, making three centuries and six half-centuries at an average of 53.25.

He likes the batting track in Durban, too, having scored 70 and then 113 in a match here in 2024. His three centuries have all been in South Africa.

Rabada has value in the ‘Top South Africa Wicket Taker in 1st Innings’ market, with reasons detailed above.

Our Prediction

Check the latest South Africa vs Australia betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is a South Africa win, with our value bet in Bavuma to reach 50+ runs in the 1st innings.

Our long shot is Steven Smith to score 100+ in the first innings. He recently knocked a half-century in a warm-up against a South Africa Invitation XI and has a history of high scores in South Africa.

He also saw his cricket career become tarnished after being handed a ban for the 2018 scandal, which may add a little something extra to the script.