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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Preview and Betting Tips

16/01/2026|SB Staff|Australian Open 2026 Tips & Predictions
<p>The 2026 Australian Open gets underway with a mouth-watering first round clash between Australian favourite Alex De Minaur and Italian powerhouse Matteo Berrettini.</p> <p>This marquee opening round matchup pits the local hero against a former Wimbledon finalist in what promises to be one of the tournament's early highlights.</p> <p>De Minaur enters Melbourne Park as the overwhelming favourite, with the odds having him at just $1.18 to advance, while Berrettini sits at $4.50.</p> <p>The Demon has enjoyed a stellar lead-up to his home grand slam, and punters are backing the Sydney native to make a statement in front of his home crowd.</p> <p>Both players arrive at Melbourne Park with contrasting narratives heading into this Australian Open first round encounter.</p> <p>De Minaur's recent form suggests he's primed for a deep run at his home major, while Berrettini will be looking to recapture the form that saw him reach the business end of grand slams in previous seasons.</p> <p>The Italian's power game has always posed problems for opponents, particularly on the faster courts of Melbourne Park. However, De Minaur's court coverage and defensive capabilities could prove crucial in neutralising Berrettini's aggressive baseline approach.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>De Minaur vs Berrettini Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Match Betting</h3> <p>The head-to-head market strongly favours the Australian, and for good reason. De Minaur's consistency and fitness levels have reached new heights, making him a formidable opponent on home soil.</p> <p>Berrettini's game relies heavily on his serve and forehand power, but the Italian has struggled with injury concerns in recent times.</p> <p>De Minaur's defensive prowess and ability to extend rallies should trouble Berrettini, whose game plan typically revolves around shorter points. The Australian's superior movement and court positioning give him a significant edge in what could develop into a battle of attrition.</p> <p>The odds reflect the reality that De Minaur is operating at a higher level consistently, while Berrettini faces question marks over his current form and physical condition.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis/mens-australian-open/matteo-berrettini-v-alex-de-minaur-10048337">Alex De Minaur.</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Set Betting</h3> <p>While De Minaur is the clear favourite, writing off Berrettini completely would be unwise. The Italian possesses enough firepower to trouble any opponent on his day, particularly in the early stages of a match before fatigue becomes a factor.</p> <p>We expect De Minaur to assert control after potentially dropping an early set. Berrettini's serve-heavy game could see him steal a set if he finds his rhythm early, but the Australian's superior fitness and consistency should see him pull away as the match progresses.</p> <p>The Italian's all-or-nothing approach makes him capable of taking a set through pure power but sustaining that level across multiple sets appears unlikely given current form indicators.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis/mens-australian-open/matteo-berrettini-v-alex-de-minaur-10048337">De Minaur 3-1.</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Total Match Games</h3> <p>The total match games line has been set at 37.5, which suggests bookmakers expect a relatively straightforward victory for De Minaur.</p> <p>Our prediction of the Australian winning in four sets aligns with staying under this total.</p> <p>If Berrettini can secure one competitive set through his power game, the match should still conclude within the under range. De Minaur's ability to close out sets efficiently when ahead makes the under particularly appealing.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/tennis/mens-australian-open/matteo-berrettini-v-alex-de-minaur-10048337">Under 37.5 total match games.</a></p> <p><em>*Odds are subject to change&nbsp;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Where to Watch the De Minaur vs Berrettini Australian Open Match</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For those in Australia, you can watch the 2026 Australian Open first round match between Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini on the Nine Network.</p> <p>Available on both free-to-air on Channel 9, and 9Gem, you can also watch the match online on 9Now.</p> <p>Alternatively, you can stream the Australian Open first round match on streaming service Stan Sport.</p>

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