The 2026 AFL season is rolling along nicely and Round 12 opens with a fascinating clash as St Kilda host Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium.

The Hawks have looked shaky in recent weeks and find themselves 4th on the ladder after a few weeks of hit-and-miss footy.

They come up against a Nasiah-less Saints side that have struggled for form without the 23-year-old gun.

The Hawks managed to steady the ship; edging out Adelaide in a low-scoring thriller down in Tassie.

Young gun Nick Watson was a constant threat in that match, generating 11 scores from a mere 12 disposals, while Blake Hardwick proved to be the ultimate swingman by booting four crucial goals.

On the flip side, St Kilda are licking their wounds after a tough trip west, where they pushed the ladder-leading Fremantle Dockers before conceding six unanswered goals in a final-quarter collapse.

That 104-74 defeat has left Ross Lyon's men sitting outside the top 10 on five wins, meaning a victory on their home deck is crucial to keep their finals hopes realistic.

With both teams desperate for the points for vastly different reasons, this match shapes up as an absolute classic.

Can the youthful enthusiasm of the Hawks secure a vital away victory, or will the Saints use their home-ground advantage to claim a massive top-four scalp?

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our St Kilda vs Hawthorn Round 12 prediction and preview below.

St Kilda vs Hawthorn Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

We think this contest is going to be a tight, tactical battle that comes down to who handles the high-pressure environment better.

The Saints were admirable in the west last week, but they ultimately came up empty against a rampaging Fremantle outfit.

While Max Hall was excellent once again in the midfield, the Saints clearly missed the class and goal-kicking prowess of the injured Jack Higgins around the big sticks.

Slipping back into Melbourne under the roof at Marvel Stadium is a massive positive for Ross Lyon's men, and we give them a one-goal advantage on their own turf.

Meanwhile, Hawthorn had Adelaide's measure last week until a late collapse allowed the Crows to storm back into the game.

It took a heroic four-goal display from swingman Blake Hardwick to save the day and keep Sam Mitchell's side inside the top four.

When these two sides met in Round 17 last season, Hawthorn walked away with a comfortable 94-74 victory at this venue.

However, with the Saints fighting for their wildcard survival and the Hawks clinging to fourth spot, the stakes are much higher this time around.

Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 5 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Cometh the moment, cometh the Jack Gunston.

Sitting pretty on 30 goals for the season so far, second most in the league – it’s very hard to look past Gunners.

He’s coming off a six-goal haul last week and looking in fine form as we head into round 12.

Expect the Hawkies to get early possession through Reeves, with the mids looking straight for Jack Gunston to open proceedings

Betting tip: Jack Gunston.

Most Disposals Prediction

St Kilda co-captain Jack Sinclair is an absolute ball magnet and is our tip to lead the disposal count on Thursday night.

Sinclair has been in strong form stepping up in the absence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and consistently clearing 25+ disposals.

We expect him to find plenty of space against the Hawks’ mids and turn this match into a proper contest.

Betting tip: Jack Sinclair.

Odds are subject to change.*

St Kilda vs Hawthorn Predicted Teams

St Kilda Predicted Team List

FB: Anthony Caminiti, Callum Wilkie, Jack Silvagni

HB: Liam O'Connell, Bradley Hill, Liam Stocker

C: Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Marcus Windhager

HF: Mason Wood, Mattaes Phillipou, Hugo Garcia

FF: Dougal Howard, Cooper Sharman, Ryan Byrnes

FOLL: Tom De Koning, Sam Flanders, Jack Sinclair

I/C: Jack Macrae, Jack Carroll, Rowan Marshall, Liam Henry, Charlie Banfield

Hawthorn Predicted Team List

FB: James Sicily, Josh Battle, Jarman Impey

HB: Karl Amon, Blake Hardwick, Bodie Ryan

C: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Josh Ward, Josh Weddle

HF: Dylan Moore, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan

FF: Cameron Nairn, Mitch Lewis, Nick Watson

FOLL: Ned Reeves, Jai Newcombe, Conor Nash

I/C: Bailey Macdonald, Lloyd Meek, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald, Finn Maginness

St Kilda vs Hawthorn Hawks Match Details

Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026.

First Bounce: 7:30pm AEST

Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

How to watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports/Channel 7