<p>We tipped Adelaide, Brisbane, and GWS head-to-head, which was an indifferent way to begin the finals.</p> <p>But we stormed home by picking the Gold Coast in the upset.&nbsp;</p> <p>Thankfully, our ‘Best Bets’ were much more successful, with three out of four legs getting up.</p> <p>Tex kicked a couple, and fellow veteran Rory Laird grabbed the 21 we needed.&nbsp;</p> <p>Lachie Whitfield collected 26+ with ease, and Jack Gunston kicked three snags (we only asked for two).</p> <p>Finally, out west, Benny Long kicked a couple, and Andy Brayshaw had the 24+ we wanted.1/4 on head-to-heads but 3/4 on best bets. Hopefully, we can go unbeaten on semi-final weekend.</p> <p>For the latest analysis, news, odds, and betting tips for all this week’s action, check out my AFL semi-finals tips and predictions below, or follow me <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed/profile/view/56/ist_ambassador_deeplink_action">on the feed</a> and see them there!&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, September 12, 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Adelaide most definitely copped some stage fright in the home qualifying final against the experienced Pies.</p> <p>They hacked the ball forward under real and perceived pressure, conceding a season-high 29 intercept marks. That’s not Adelaide’s season-high; that’s across the whole league.</p> <p>Sure, Fogarty and Thilthorpe need to play better, but the Crows need to be more expansive with their ball use and where the ball lands when going inside 50.</p> <p>Speaking of confidence, the Hawks will arrive with plenty of it. As we’ve come to know with this Hawthorn team.</p> <p>Jai Newcombe was the alpha midfielder they needed against GWS, and the flankers at both ends stood tall.</p> <p>Ginnivan and Macdonald had 34 and kicked six between them, whilst Amon and Impey were enormous at half back.</p> <p>These two teams stack up in most key areas.</p> <p>No. 1 and No. 2 for ground balls (past 10 games), both excellent tackling teams, and both defend their own fifty incredibly well.</p> <p>The Crows are #18 for handballs. It’s a simple stat that means a lot to me.</p> <p>It shows me they need to be more creative when exiting stoppage and when trying to generate ball movement in transition.</p> <p>The momentum is with the Hawks, but Adelaide won 18 games this season, and with some subtle adjustments, they can win through a preliminary final in Melbourne.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/adelaide-crows-v-hawthorn-9596748">Crows by 5 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> SGM: James Sicily 8+ marks &amp; Riley Thilthorpe 3+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Brisbane vs Gold Coast Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, September 13, 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Again, the momentum is with the lower seed here, with the higher seed looking to reestablish some balance.</p> <p>The Lions were hammered by Geelong last Friday. Forget the final margin; it was a comprehensive beatdown.</p> <p>They suffered in the medical room, too, with Lachie Neale gone for the rest of the season and Eric Hipwood discovering a knee injury to go along with his calf issue.</p> <p>The Suns will travel down the motorway full of life. Especially after the recent smashing they gave Brisbane only six weeks ago.</p> <p>Rowell had 37 and 12 tackles in that one, whilst Anderson had 33 and a goal. Ben Long, Bailey Humphrey, and Jy Farrar all combined to kick 10 snags in a 66-point win.</p> <p>This one, at The Gabba, gives the Lions an edge. They’ve won the past seven Q Clashes in Brisbane.</p> <p>Zac Bailey, Will Ashcroft, and Hugh McCluggage will need to have a significant say to ensure the Lions' progress.</p> <p>I’ll side with the more experienced reigning premiers, but without much confidence.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns-9596747">Lions by 8 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> SGM: Will Ashcroft 26+ disposals, Hugh McCluggage 24+ disposals, Zac Bailey 23+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>2025 AFL Premiership Odds:</h2>