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AFL Tips and Predictions - Round 5 2026

07/04/2026|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

For the fourth time, we all Gather Round for a full weekend of footy in mighty Adelaide.

The weekend of footy begins with a desperate contest between Adelaide – who run the risk of a 1-4 start and Carlton, who simply continue to defy logic with their second half fadeouts.

Perhaps the highlight of the weekend will be at Norwood Oval on Saturday afternoon for Sydney and Gold Coast.

Last week was successful for us on The Huddle. Some of the highlights included Lachie Neale, Kane Farrell, Charlie Curnow and North Melbourne winning head-to-head.

Onto Gather Round we go...

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check our expert AFL tips and predictions for Round 5 below.

 

Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues

 

Adelaide have been smashed early in games too often this season, leaving them in a position where they need to chase the game.

The Dockers jumped them in a big way and probably should have ended things in the third term, if not for some poor kicking for goal. The Crows, to their credit, made a big run and actually found a lead before coughing it back up and going down by a couple of points.

Here, a win is the only thing that will be accepted.

And for some, a thumping win might also be an expectation.

The Blues will be down key defenders, allowing for Adelaide’s tall forwards to have a large say. Something they’re really yet to do in 2026.

As for the Navy Blues, at this point, I really have no more words.

Head-to-head prediction: Adelaide Crows by 33 points.

Betting tip: Riley Thilthorpe 4+ goals.

 

Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers

 

Weirdly, Fremantle decided to jet home for the week, making it back-to-back trips to Adelaide Oval. Like there’s not enough travel in their schedule.

They were incredibly impressive early and late last week against the Crows and will go into this clash as very warm favourites. Josh Treacy is in sparkling form, Jye Amiss came alive last week with four majors and the mid-forwards are airborne. Bolton and Reid have been sensational.

The Pies were lucky to be as close as they were against Brisbane, says Chris Fagan, and I agree. There are genuine concerns for the Pies and they extend further than Nick Daicos missing games.

On neutral territory, you’d give Collingwood a puncher’s chance but if Freo are as good as I think, I’d like to see them handle their business here.

Head-to-head prediction: Fremantle Dockers by 18 points.

Betting tip: Andrew Brayshaw 26+ disposals.

 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions

 

The Roos are inside the top six (still weird to say) but this is the ultimate test.

They’re up and about, they’re feeling themselves after back-to-back wins including last week’s emotional comeback over the Blues. Now, they need to travel to Barossa Valley for a date with the B2B champs.

The Kangas have the power around the seed to go with Ashcroft x2, Neale, Berry, Dunkley and perhaps the returning McCluggage. Davies-Uniacke has seemingly refined his game, Sheezel is still doing his thing and we all love George Wardlaw’s intensity and desire.

Big Nick Larkey and Cooper Trembath will get a few good looks against an under-manned Lions defence.

All in all, you want to see North keep this close but Brisbane are beginning to get some groove back and should be too classy.

By the way, four years in, is there any chance we can give the reigning champions a run at Adelaide Oval?

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by 21 points.

Betting tip: Colby McKercher 27+ disposals.

 

Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons

 

Hardly excitement dripping from this one unless you’re a Dees fan enjoying seeing your new group blossom.

Melbourne are averaging almost 100 points per game and are playing a speedy style suited to its younger players. Max Gawn keeps leading by example, too. 22 disposals, 32 hit-outs and – again – nine key disposals in the last term when Gold Coast were looking to make a run.

Essendon were chopped liver early as the Dogs kicked seven goals in the opening quarter before really slamming on the brakes, not even kicking a goal in the third. The Bombers did show some fight and they showed an ability to defend. Something we’ve seen little of early this season.

Zach Merrett played an excellent game but it looks a long season for the wantaway former captain.

On the MCG, you’d give this to the Dees running away and I still think they’ll win and move to 4-1 but perhaps last week gave Essendon some belief they can compete and steal games.

Head-to-head prediction: Melbourne Demons by 25 points.

Betting tip: Jack Steele 24+ disposals.

 

Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns

 

This might be the match of the round across Gather Round.

The Swans slickly handled West Coast by 100+ in a stunning display of offensive ball movement and scoring. For Gold Coast, we all want to see them in these type of environments. 

We know they’ll be near-impossible to roll on the Coast and most of their Victorian clashes will be in front of small crowds, so what does this look like at a neutral venue against a high-flying opponent?

Curnow got going last week and a clash with Sam Collins awaits with some aerial assistance from Ballard and Andrew. Bodhi Uwland’s game has evolved nicely. He’s now a gun lockdown medium defender but is winning plenty of the footy, too.

Grundy v Jarrod Witts is big, as is Heeney v Rowell and likely James Jordon v Noah Anderson.

Mouth-watering clash and we all might make some big claims about the winner!

Head-to-head prediction: Gold Coast Suns by 5 points.

Betting tip: Gold Coast Suns H2H.

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs

 

A ripping clash on Adelaide Oval for our Saturday night.

The Dogs played with their food last week, occasionally looking like winning like 125 but even looking like having a challenge on their hands against the Bombers.

Marcus Bontempelli was as smooth as smooth gets early. 22 disposals and a goal at halftime. Darcy and Naughton both kicked 3.3.

Those two big forwards will face maybe the sternest defensive group in the game. Tommy Barrass is in sparkling form whilst Josh Battle is a 2025 All Australian and James Sicily is almost back to AA form, too.

The challenge will be for Hawthorn to go blow for blow with the Dogs around the ball. Bontempelli, likely Ed Richards, Kennedy, Freijah and Sanders v Ward, Newcombe, Macdonald and Nash. On paper, it’s advantage Dogs.

A super match-up for both teams to learn a thing or two about themselves.

Head-to-head prediction: Western Bulldogs by 10 points.

Betting tip: Jai Newcombe 25+ disposals.

 

Geelong Cats vs West Coast Eagles

 

Geelong and West Coast lock horns on The Parade.

The Eagles were smashed to smithereens against Sydney, so a response is ideal. Geelong roll into this off a shorter break and it will be of interest to see how some of their runners handle the smaller Norwood Oval.

The West Aussies have some seriously talented big boys. Jobe Shanahan, Cooper Duff-Tytler and Archer Reid all show heaps. Based on James Jordon’s job on Harley Reid, you’d expect Cat Oisin Mullin to replicate the role. Former Cat Tim Kelly will need a big one.

Geelong might not love Norwood Oval but they should not have much trouble with West Coast’s kids.

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 40 points.

Betting tip: Shannon Neale 3+ goals.

 

GWS Giants vs Richmond Tigers

 

We’re back to Barossa for GWS and Richmond – two clubs with monster injury lists.

The Giants are getting a few back and boy do they need them. Without Taylor and Buckley behind the ball, they’re (obviously) vulnerable but the forward line has also been underwhelming with Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer struggling since Opening Round.

Richmond’s game style was bizarre last week. All too willing to go long down the line, asking inexperienced key forwards to compete time and time again. Did not work! Aliir Aliir took eight intercept marks and Port controlled the game.

Richmond are stacking up the losses and this is one they might be able to pinch – or at least keep close.

Head-to-head prediction: GWS Giants by 21 points.

Betting tip: Finn Callaghan 29+ disposals.

 

Port Adelaide Power vs St Kilda

 

It’s supposed to be a cracking way to end a cracking weekend but Port v St Kilda inspires very few.

The Power had a banana peel game last week in Melbourne but took care of the Tiger Cubs in comprehensive fashion. The Saints had the week off and arrive here really needing to avoid four losses through their first five games.

I’m looking for the emerging mid-forwards for the Saints in this one. Max Hall, Darcy Wilson and South Australian Mattaes Phillipou. They can be the match-winners here.

Port’s fixtures have been ultra-friendly early, despite two bad losses. WCE, NM, RICH, ESS – it’s a handy beginning. Moving to 3-2 is ideal because they have pain ahead. The Hawks, Cats, Crows, Dogs and Suns are next…

Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 13 points.

Betting tip: Tom De Koning 18+ disposals.

 

Odds are subject to change.*

Adelaide Crows
Brisbane Lions
Gold Coast SUNS
Hawthorn
Melbourne
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Collingwood
GWS GIANTS
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast Eagles

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