A contender was always going to cough one up at some stage.
And despite looking as good as anyone in the AFL at different stages, Brisbane were the ones to take a crucial L, losing at home to Sydney.
Hard to believe, but the Gabba has been a hoodoo for these Lions this season.
On the punt, big Shannon Neale kicked us three snags, Jack Sinclair brought his own footy to The ‘G, Benny Long and the reinvigorated Brayden Fiorini ran riot under the lid against the Blues, whilst Ed Richards tore up the Dees.
It’s Round 23 - the penultimate weekend before we play for all the marbles. And boy, there are some big ones here!!
For the latest analysis, news, odds, and betting tips for all this week’s action, check out my AFL round 23 tips and predictions below, or follow me on the feed and see them there!
Essendon vs St Kilda Prediction
Friday, August 15, 7:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Not much to wind up about here as both teams limp to the end.
The Bombers made a rally against Geelong in a game where everyone expected Jezza Cameron to outscore them on his own.
They’ve got to keep finding a few for the next finals push.
For the Saints, they’ve won three on the spin but against no one. It’s a monster off-season at Moorabbin.
Head-to-head prediction: Saints by 14 points
Betting tip: Jack Higgins 3+goals & Andy McGrath 22+ disposals
Fremantle vs Brisbane Prediction
Friday, August 15, 8:20pm AEST - Optus Stadium
Match of the round in the west with everything on the line.
The Lions copped the banana peel game against Sydney and stumbled over the speedbump in their late-season push. They’re 0-1 in the Lachie Neale quad era; they need to win here to guarantee September action and keep their top-four hopes alive.
The Dockers escaped from their very own banana peel game in Adelaide against Port.
Patrick Voss and Murphy Reid shone late, and Fast Freddy (Michael Frederick) had some moments, too.
The Lions need Charlie Cameron up and about. His season has been filled with more lows than highs, but this is the time of the season when his impact can be fully felt.
Head-to-head prediction: Lions by 11 points
Betting tip: Cam Rayner 17+ disposals & anytime goal
Gold Coast vs GWS Giants Prediction
Saturday, August 16, 12:35pm AEST - People First Stadium
Another huge clash on the Coast for another Expansion Cup.
GWS overcame a 22-point margin after three quarters last time these sides met, in a sensational final stanza burst.
The goal scoring source was deep, with Cadman (3), Stringer (2), Riccardi (2), Hogan (2), and Greene (2) all multiples.
Ash, Tom Green, and Finn Callaghan were all huge, too.
Gold Coast did the job last week. Sure, the Blues pushed them hard, but the job was almost always assured.
Ben King exploded with six snags, and Ben Long kept winning contests ahead of the ball.
Head-to-head prediction: Suns by 14 points
Betting tip: Matt Rowell 8+ clearances & Tom Green 8+ clearances
Carlton vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Saturday, August 16, 1:20pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
Both these teams hung tough and showed some late-season fight last week.
Both took another loss, though.
Cooper Lord is showing signs as a tagger for the Blues, and Ollie Hollands looks to have potential as a ball-user behind the ball. There are some signs.
Mitch Georgiades will be keen to prove why he’s an All-Australian candidate. His 50+ goal season has been immense in a poor team..
Head-to-head prediction: Power by 5 points
Betting tip: Travis Boak 21+ disposals
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Prediction
Saturday, August 16, 4:15 pm AEST - MCG
The Hawks have to keep hunting.
They’ve been big in their past two, just falling short against the Crows, then hammering Collingwood.
For the Dees, it was a gallant showing after a dramatic week.
The same names keep fronting up and doing a job, but also, the same names are the headaches they’ll have into the off-season.
How many of Petracca, Oliver, and May will be there next season?
Head-to-head prediction: Hawks by 28 points
Betting tip: Dylan Moore 10 kicks + 10 handballs
Adelaide vs Collingwood Prediction
Saturday, August 16, 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
Gigantic.
Adelaide copped an almighty scare in the west, but Riley Thilthorpe saved the day. His partner in crime, Darcy Fogarty… where is he?
Izak Rankine was awful in the first half, with just three disposals playing forward of the ball. He then moved into the midfield and had 20 and a goal. Simple equation for mine.
The Pies are wounded and weakened.
But this can be their time to shine.
The veterans are here for a reason. This has to be their time to shine on that stage.
De Goey has had two primers; is he ready to tear a game to shreds? Pies fans certainly hope so.
Head-to-head prediction: Crows by 13 points
Betting tip: Darcy Fogarty 2+ goals
North Melbourne vs Richmond Prediction
Sunday, August 17, 1:10pm AEST - Ninja Stadium
Hardly anything to write home about here as the Roos look to avoid yet another embarrassing loss - and gigantic score against.
Defensively, these Roos are yards and yards off the pace.
Richmond hung tough against the Saints but fell short. They’ll fancy themselves here, despite the Roo’s clear improvement when they get beneath that Marvel Stadium lid.
Banks, Faull, Campbell, Green, Trainor, and Young have all shown enormous promise this season. And Lalor and Hotton might be the best of them all.
More growth is needed from many, many Kangas this off-season for this group to leap the ladder, which is what I expected this season.
How wrong I was.
Head-to-head prediction: Roos by 8 points
Betting tip: Luke Davies-Uniacke 27+ disposals
Sydney vs Geelong Prediction
Sunday, August 17, 3:15pm AEST - SCG
Sydney has all of a sudden become a clear and present danger for anyone they face.
The Lions felt their wrath last week, with Isaac Heeney again displaying dominance around the ball and inside fifty.
The build toward 2026 looks strong for the Red and the White.
For Geelong, this will be a fascinating test as they’ve had so many simpler games late in the season. This helps with a top-two finish but perhaps leaves them softened up for when the big contests arrive.
Dangerfield resumes, Cameron’s chase for 100 has a slow pulse, and the dynamic duo, Holmes and Smith, will go at it with an equally explosive on-baller - Chad Warner!
Head-to-head prediction: Swans by 5 points
Betting tip: Callum Mills 23+ disposals
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Prediction
Sunday, August 17, 4:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Dogs snuck past the Dees at the ‘G.
This will be an easier task. Much easier unless West Coast can redeploy the intensity they brought to the table last week against ladder leaders, Adelaide.
Ed Richards went off last week. Enormous numbers all over the board and likely three more Brownlow votes. He’s got to be some kind of sneaky chance.
Sam Darcy sealed the deal last week with a stunning mark whilst Aaron Naughton dominated again, booting five goals.
Head-to-head prediction: Dogs by 71 points
Betting tip: Sam Darcy 5+ goals