<p>As we head into AFL round 22, those that were once dominators are now in a world of pain and those who began slowly are building to a wicked climax.</p> <p>Last week produced the goods on the field and produced the goods for us on the tip. We must keep charging!</p> <p>Can the Swans get it together and hang on to top spot? Can anyone stop the Lions? And who will come out on top in the crucial battle between Hawthorn and Carlton as the race for the eight gets turned up to 11? Let’s find out, shall we?</p> <p>For the latest analysis, news, odds and betting tips for all of this week’s action, check out my AFL round 22 tips and predictions below, or follow me <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed/profile/view/56/ist_ambassador_deeplink_action">on the feed</a> and see them there!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Sydney Swans vs Collingwood Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, August 9, 7:30pm AEST – SCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Many would’ve had this pegged as a potential top four deciding contest and perhaps it is – but not for the reasons we anticipated.</p> <p>As we head into AFL round 22, it has become apparent that the wheels have totally fallen off the Sydney wagon.</p> <p>Hammered at home against the Dogs, the Swans followed that up with one of the more insipid performances we’ve seen from any team in some time, let alone a team who sits atop the AFL ladder!</p> <p>The performance was so bad, you’d be forgiven for sweeping it under the rug and calling it a one-off, but the problem is, Sydney are reeling, and the Pies arrive back in some form and with some key personnel back on deck.</p> <p>Callum Mills missed most of the season with a shoulder injury and he’s now played three games back. The Swans need their captain to stand tallest and lead them back to form.</p> <p>Grundy, Warner, Heeney and most of the forwards are well out of touch in comparison to the first half of 2024. They’re all in such a rut I’m unsure whether they can correct their shortcomings.</p> <p>Another ordinary performance on a big stage at home against a team with injury and illness of its own and you simply cannot see these Swans winning much of anything. What a wild statement that is when you consider they enter the game two points clear atop the table.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/sydney-v-collingwood-8438129">Sydney Swans by 5 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Errol Gulden 30+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, August 10, 1:45pm AEST – The Gabba</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Alongside the Blues and Hawks, this looks like the game of the weekend.</p> <p>The Lions simply keep rolling. Nine on the spin and they made the Saints look VFL-standard last weekend.</p> <p>Rayner was explosive with 22 and three snags. Zac Bailey got rolling, kicking three of his own and Joe Daniher could’ve bagged seven to eight but left a few on the table.</p> <p>I also never thought a big defender could be my favourite player in the AFL but, my goodness, Harris Andrews is an impassable object!</p> <p>On the other side of the field, you’ve got to admire the Giants. Their season has been topsy-turvy and even in-game, they’ve had violent momentum swings for and against. One thing has remained constant, though – Jesse Hogan.</p> <p>Hogan has banged through 22 goals in his past five games and looks now likely to claim a maiden Coleman Medal. Add this to skipper Toby Greene’s rapidly ascending form and the Giants are a scary prospect indeed.</p> <p>Greene and Hogan have kicked seven or more goals between them in all of their past five games.</p> <p>Brent Daniels adds zest around the ball. Tom Green is a clearance and contested ball animal whilst Lachie Whitfield will cut you up when you go anywhere near him off half back.</p> <p>Toby Bedford is a living certainty of tagging Lachie Neale, whilst Josh Dunkley probably goes and clamps big Green at stoppage.</p> <p>Find time in the schedule to enjoy some Gabba footy under the Queensland winter sunshine. This is not to be missed.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/brisbane-v-greater-western-sydney-8438128">Brisbane Lions by 13 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>SGM – Brent Daniels 20+ disposals, Zac Bailey anytime goal, Toby Greene 2+ goals.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>North Melbourne vs West Coast Eagles Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, August 10, 1:45pm AEST – Marvel Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The beauty of writing this column each week is giving thought to all 18 teams.</p> <p>However, with 16th vs 17th going at it I can forgive myself for skimming over the deep dive. The Roos form is rock solid, and the future finally looks blue(ish).</p> <p>West Coast pinched a gritty win at home over Gold Coast last week but will be keen to perform more consistently on the road. One more win gets them to five on the season and that’s probably a pass mark all things considered.</p> <p>Big Tristan Xerri gets another great chance to land himself an unlikely All-Australian nod. His season has been sensational as a hard-working, tackling, clearance machine.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/north-melbourne-v-west-coast-8438130">North Melbourne by 21 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Tristian Xerri 25+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Fremantle vs Geelong Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, August 10, 4:35pm AEST – Optus Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This will be a sneaky good game in the west and one which will shape the top eight and the top four.</p> <p>Freo coughed up a 20-point lead at the ‘G last week in a game that could prove costly when we lay out the schedule for week one of the finals.</p> <p>Amiss and Treacy were low-possession, high impact last week. 16 disposals between them but seven goals. It’s always a kick in the teeth when you kick more goals than your opposition and lose but it does also likely mean you’ve been outplayed.</p> <p>The Cats did the job despite a scare from Adelaide. Jeremy Cameron proved to be the match-winner Geelong pay him to be with 17 disposals and six sausages.</p> <p>He likely cops Brennan Cox in this one – a contest which will be pivotal.</p> <p>Hayden Young, Caleb Serong, Andy Brayshaw, Jackson, Darcy and Sharp on a wing looks a tough task for a weakened Geelong on-ball crew who are doing things by committee.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/fremantle-v-geelong-8438131">Fremantle by 18 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Jye Amiss 3+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, August 10, 7:30pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Dees are on the doorstep of elimination, whilst Port are subtly rolling toward a home qualifying final.</p> <p>The game review at Alberton will be a fun one, hammering the ladder-leaders into submission. Georgiades (4.2), Rioli (4.0) and Dixon (3.0) all got plenty of looks whilst guns like Dan Houston, Will Drew, Ollie Wines and Jason Horne-Francis collected possessions for free.</p> <p>The Dees were blasted on the outside by the Dogs. 135-135 was the contested ball count but the Dogs had 59 more disposals on the outside – highlighting the Dees' struggles outside the contest.</p> <p>Port’s midfield can run and spread and that’s where the game will be decided.</p> <p>Big Max will do all he can, but this looks like one team charging toward its best form of the season and one team limping to the line.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/melbourne-v-port-adelaide-8438134">Port Adelaide by 20 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Connor Rozee 25+ disposals and an anytime goal.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Essendon vs Gold Coast Suns Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, August 10, 7:30pm AEST – Marvel Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Suns get another chance to win on the road because the AFL have royally stitched them up with a trip to Perth, followed up by a trip to Melbourne. What a farce!</p> <p>The Dons kept their season alive with a brave win over the Dockers. Mason Redman and Andy McGrath got going down back and I reckon it’s no coincidence Redman sees more of the ball without Jordan Ridley in the line-up.</p> <p>Parish and Caldwell hunted the ball whilst Zac Merrett may have pinched another Brownlow vote or two in the win.</p> <p>Jake Stringer has also returned to some kind form. Four goals headlines the news, but a career-high 10 tackles would have his coaches clapping loudly.</p> <p>You feel these last few games are crucial for Sun Jack Lukosius and his future, is he still on the Goldie in 2025?</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/essendon-v-gold-coast-8438132">Essendon by 15 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Mason Redman 25+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, August 11, 1:10pm AEST – Marvel Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Sunday afternoon at the ‘G with most of the marbles on the table. A Blues win almost secures them a place in September action but a loss leaves them incredibly vulnerable.</p> <p>Last week we got a crystal-clear look at what makes them win and what makes them lose - clearances. Both around the ground and especially in the middle at centre bounce.</p> <p>When Cripps, Walsh, Hewett and Pittonet can combine and dump the ball forward, the Blues get momentum and play the forward-half game but when teams can match them inside the contest, they’re at risk.</p> <p>The Hawks really gave one back in Canberra. Up 28 points turning for home, they never should’ve lost that game, but their form remains, despite the tough loss.</p> <p>Save some energy for this one because I reckon you’ll need it!</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/carlton-v-hawthorn-8438133">Carlton by 4 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Blake Acres 25+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Richmond vs St Kilda Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, August 11, 3:20pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>14th vs 18th here, so there is little to be said. The Tigers were in a winnable one last week with the Roos but fell short. The remaining few games in 2024 are all about discovering what’s going to take them forward – game style and personnel wise.</p> <p>The Saints were destroyed under the Docklands dome by Brisbane. They’d posted 10 points by halftime and pinched a couple of late goals to avoid an embarrassingly low total.</p> <p>Similarly, for them, they need to work out whether guys like Dow, Bonner, Jones, Caminiti and Stocker are going to propel them forward.</p> <p>At The MCG I’d give the Tiges a hope but at Marvel, we’ll stick with St Kilda, but a nil-all draw would not surprise.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/richmond-v-st-kilda-8438135">St Kilda by 21 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Jack Sinclair 30+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, August 11, 4:10pm AEST – Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Crows were officially eliminated from September action with their loss in Geelong.</p> <p>It’s a season of enormous disappointment and one that means 2025 will be gigantic for them as a club. They get a chance to upend a premiership aspirant on home soil, though, so that may give them something to bark about.</p> <p>Speaking of – these Dogs are rolling!</p> <p>Ugle-Hagan is the No. 2 forward in the game as we speak (Jesse Hogan says hi) whilst Naughton and Sam Darcy are complimenting him beautifully.</p> <p>Ed Richards’ move into the middle has been a masterstroke and Marcus Bontempelli may have played the best individual game of the season last week. 33 touches, two goals and two assists among 16 score involvements. His levels of brilliance are perhaps unmatched in the way he impacts games.</p> <p>While the Rory Lobb move also looks a long-term winner!</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/adelaide-v-western-bulldogs-8438136">Western Bulldogs by 11 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Adam Treloar 35+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL 2024 Premiership Odds</h2>