<p>Last week was a kick in the backside. Thank God for The Bont kicking a couple for us otherwise we were staring down the barrel of a truly awful weekend.</p> <p>Our next best result was Jack Ginnivan missing the game and our best bet getting voided.</p> <p>AFL round 18 is a new dawn however, so OTTNO as they say. (On to the next one for you out of touch people).</p> <p>For the latest analysis, news, odds and betting tips for all of this week’s action, check out my AFL round 18 tips and predictions below, or follow me <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed/profile/view/56/ist_ambassador_deeplink_action">on the feed</a> and see them there!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Collingwood vs Geelong Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, July 12, 7:40pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>What a gigantic game this becomes. I said on radio across the weekend that the Pies could no longer successfully defend their premiership with the loss of Brody Mihocek. I standby that and will now explain why.</p> <p>Mihocek plays a vital role for the Pies. He’s the aerial competitor who brings others into the game with the spills he creates. He kicks a couple of goals per game and is a workhorse.</p> <p>He allows others to remain in their more natural roles. With him gone, so are Collingwood.</p> <p>The Cats got back into some sparkling form with a thunderous win over the Hawks at home.</p> <p>Tom Stewart looks happy in his role as a midfielder who takes every opportunity to get back and support the defenders. He had eight intercept possessions, which means he still should be treated as a defender.</p> <p>Jeremy Cameron had eight scoring shots and Brad Close chimed in with four snags.</p> <p>Patrick Dangerfield has had a couple of prep runs now for a sustained charge toward September and his best will be needed against Daicos, Pendlebury and De Goey around the ball.</p> <p>Geelong should be winning this, with the Pies in all sorts of trouble with key position depth.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/collingwood-v-geelong-8364599">Geelong by 14 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Hawthorn vs Fremantle Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, July 13, 1:45pm AEST – York Park</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Huge one here in Tasmania – which has to give the Hawks a big edge.</p> <p>The Hawks got handled in Geelong and the long season could be catching up with some young, emerging stars and they’ll be truly tested against a team who is emerging in its own right.</p> <p>Josh Treacy deserves the most improved tag, even though the AFL is behind the times and does not have such an award. He’s rolling into contention for All-Australian selection – such has been his rapid rise.</p> <p>In addition to this all of a sudden, Serong, Brayshaw and Hayden Young are scoreboard-hitting midfielders, giving them a new edge to a prolific group.</p> <p>The Hawks have an amazing record at York Park (University of Launceston Stadium) with 59 wins from 80 appearances whilst Freo are just 2-11 at the venue.</p> <p>Having said that, this Docker outfit looks the real deal and a smoky to snatch a top two finish.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/hawthorn-v-fremantle-8364601">Fremantle by 11 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Hayden Young 25+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, July 13, 1:45pm AEST – SCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On paper you’d expect the Swans to roll in and score 120+ on the Roos.</p> <p>An angry Sydney off the back of back-to-back losses with many now questioning their premiership favouritism.</p> <p>Ever since kicking nine against Adelaide, big Swan Joel Amartey has struggled, managing just 0.3 against the Saints.</p> <p>Logan McDonald is having an indifferent time as well, having five shots at goal but missing potential game-winning kicks in both losses. Veterans Dane Rampe and Jake Lloyd must be under some selection pressure as well with Cal Mills and others pressing for positions.</p> <p>For the Kangas, how damn good was Colby McKercher dashing off half back? He took Zac Fisher’s role and ran with it – literally. 27 kicks among 37 disposals.</p> <p>Harry Sheezel continued on as Nick Daicos-lite with 35 and a goal whilst experienced mid pair, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin, torched the Suns for 58 and 14 clearances between them.</p> <p>Nick Larkey up against Tom McCartin will be an epic individual clash inside the Roos fifty. They couldn’t could they!?</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/sydney-v-north-melbourne-8364600">Sydney by 41 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Tom Papley 2+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, July 13, 4:35pm AEST – Marvel Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Just another blockbuster on an epic weekend of footy. The Dogs turned the toes up from the get-go in Adelaide and allowed Port’s star midfield to run rampant.</p> <p>Names like Libba, Treloar and Bontempelli will be out for revenge.</p> <p>Problem is, they’ll run into Cripps and Walsh who are an amazing 1-2 punch. Add in Cerra, Kennedy, Hollands x2 and big TDK in the ruck and the Blues have claims for the No. 1 midfield in the game.</p> <p>Here’s a fascinating stat I stumbled upon on Twitter - All-Australian big man Tim English is yet to win a hit-out count this season. Not sure what it means, but certainly a surprising and quirky stat!</p> <p>Down back, the Dogs have health issues and when that is the case, running into Harry and Charlie is far from ideal.</p> <p>Curnow will be out to rectify some average form across the past fortnight and McKay is full of life after bagging five last week.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/western-bulldogs-v-carlton-8364604">Carlton by 13 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Charlie Cunrow 4+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, July 13, 7:30pm AEST – Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Without any bearing on the run into September, this is a really interesting game. Two teams who have underperformed all season but have found some rhythm in the past month.</p> <p>The Saints will arrive on cloud nine after rolling the ladder leaders whilst Adelaide ground away but ultimately came up short against a rampaging Lions squad.</p> <p>Izak Rankine will be sorely missed but does that give Josh Rachele scope to get around the ball and be an impactful mid-forward option?</p> <p>Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley dominated the Crows around the ball, combining for 60+ and four goals whilst Adelaide scrounged to create scores and give Tex, Fogarty and others opportunities.</p> <p>Rowan Marshall has been in handy goal kicking form whilst Reilly O’Brien again lowered his colours to Big O in Brisbane. Marshall is capable of another big performance – perhaps a match-winning one.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/adelaide-v-st-kilda-8364602">Adelaide by 10 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Rory Laird 30+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, July 13, 7:30pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Dees are doing enough to give their season life. Jake Melksham returned from his ACL layoff, big Jacob Van Rooyen is arriving as a player and ‘Disco’ Turner is giving them something up front as well.</p> <p>Add in the class of Kozzie Pickett and all of a sudden, the Dees forward mix looks capable of scoring.</p> <p>Trent Rivers move to the middle is paying dividends as well, collecting 29 on the weekend.</p> <p>The Bombers have a deep midfield unit these days thanks to the emergence of Jye Caldwell and Sammy Durham.</p> <p>Caldwell has had 62 touches in the past fortnight whilst Durham is mastering the art of playing on the opposition’s best mid whilst still impacting the game for his team offensively.</p> <p>Kyle Langford returned to some form, with 15 and 2.2 against the Pies. They’ll need more this week with Judd McVee likely to get the big job.</p> <p>I’m also loving the emerging wingers for the Bombers. Xavier Duursma looks an excellent selection, whilst Harry Jones has morphed from a potential key forward to an aerially superior wingman.</p> <p>Their ability to air-assist behind the ball and when getting forward can be a major weapon.</p> <p>The Dees defensive power will test Essendon, but Zac and the boys should be too potent and too talented.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/melbourne-v-essendon-8364605">Essendon by 11 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Jye Caldwell 25+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, July 14, 1:10pm AEST – Heritage Bank Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Is this the one the Suns slip up on at home? We’ve been so worried about them winning on the road we’ve taken for granted the home success, and their opponents arrive here full of life after hammering the Dogs in S.A.</p> <p>Gold Coast’s midfield was close enough to embarrassed by the Roos whilst Damien Hardwick called out the lack of competition from the forwards as well.</p> <p>The Roos won the clearance count 45-29 despite names like Rowell, Anderson, Flanders and Miller running around the Suns midfield.</p> <p>Ben King was well held but his form spikes at home under the Gold Coast sun and he’s not alone. So many of his team mates seemingly spring to life at home but go missing on the road.</p> <p>Dimma will be eye-balling his star midfielders and demanding they turn up ready for work with Butters, Rozee and The Hornet all arriving in sparkling form. The winner of that positional battle will win the game.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/gold-coast-v-port-adelaide-8364603">Gold Coast by 14 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Noah Anderson 30+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Richmond vs GWS Giants Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, July 14, 3:20pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Orange Tsunami got washed away in the opening term then returned twice the size from quarter time onward.</p> <p>Fourteen of the next 16 goals from that moment highlighted the power this team does possess when on-song. Brent Daniels around the ball is a big win whilst Finn Callaghan has added plenty through the middle as well.</p> <p>Jesse Hogan is the hardest working key forward in the sport and he was handsomely rewarded last week with a haul of five.</p> <p>And there’s upside for GWS as Toby Greene continues to contribute without ever really being his dominant self.</p> <p>Richmond will enjoy returning to the MCG, but I doubt that will do much for them in regards to the result.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/richmond-v-greater-western-sydney-8364606">GWS by 30 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>Lachie Whitfield 30+ disposals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, July 14, 4:40pm AEST – Optus Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Things keep coming up rosy for the Lions, despite jumping on the plane and having to head cross country to round out AFL round 18.</p> <p>They always had Adelaide at arm’s length last week and are all of a sudden not too far away from the top four.</p> <p>Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley were mammoth last week and have been driving forces in this resurgence.</p> <p>The Lion cubs have also been roaring. Reville, Lohmann, Morris, Ashcroft and Fletcher have added so much life and energy into the group.</p> <p>Questions linger over the immediate future of Adam Simpson and performances like last week will only add fuel to the Eagles fire. A fire I doubt they can extinguish this week.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/west-coast-v-brisbane-8364607">Brisbane by 28 points.</a></p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Kai Lohmann 2+ goals.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL 2024 Premiership Odds</h2>