Welcome back to my weekly AFL Tips & Predictions for AFL Round 11.
Looking back at last week’s tips briefly, Suns won by 13+ and Touk Miller had 30+ disposals. Swans won by 11+ but Nick Blakey anytime didn’t land as he only kicked a behind.
Pies by 17+ and Josh Rachele 2+ goals were both a success. GWS didn’t land, however Lachie Whitfield went for 30+ disposals. Dockers notched a 5+ points win and Jordan Clark went for 25+ disposals. Both our Lions tips were a success (Lions by 51 points & Lions -43.5). The Bombers didn’t hit the 48+ points mark & Langford didn’t go for 4+ goals. Port by 24+ and Jason Horne-Francis 20+ disposals and anytime were a success.
The Dees to win by 22 points & Petracca for 3+ goals both missed the mark.
A big weekend for The Huddle AFL readers with 6/9 suggested bets getting across the line - the highlight? Jason Horne-Francis going big.
Yeah yeah, I can hear you… we only care about what’s next. So here goes…
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney Prediction
Thursday, May 23rd, 7:30 PM AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Dogs have rallied since appearing on the doorstep of total crisis.
A hammering of Richmond helped cool the waters but they then franked that with a powerful win over the Giants in western Sydney.
The performance was incredibly even, meaning the Dogs’ role players are warming to their respective tasks and not leaving too much to Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English, and Liam Jones in defence.
They get a proper test here with the all-conquering Swans arriving in Melbourne. The on-ball battle will be crucial. Can Tim English match Brodie Grundy’s follow-up and ferocity at the contest?
Do the Dogs have an answer for the hard-running Errol Gulden? And can the Dogs' mids slow the power and potency of Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney around the ball?
Warner was enormous against the Blues, almost taking the mickey out of them at times with his burst from stoppage. He ended with 28 and 3 goals.
And Heeney added a Brownlow vote or two to his tally.
Head-to-head prediction: Swans by 11 points
Betting tip: Erroll Gulden 25 + disposals + a goal
Walyalup (Fremantle) vs Collingwood Prediction
Friday, May 24th, 8:10 PM AEST - Optus Stadium
I like this clash, despite the awful start time on the East Coast.
Freo is evolving their offensive game style. Jordan Clark has been pivotal in that with his run and gun off half-back and Hayden Young’s addition to the midfield has provided more punch and dash.
Caleb Serong, Nat Fyfe, and Andy Brayshaw are an excellent ball-winning group but they do lack drive from the contest - something Young has in spades.
Collingwood’s season is rolling along with about 75% of its necessary momentum so a win in the west would only add to their charge.
Nick Daicos may have started the season a shade off his very best but I can assure you, he is back. 24 disposals and 10 clearances in the opening half against Adelaide proves that.
As the Pies get more bodies back, I doubt many want to see them in big games - but Collingwood only plays in big games, so good luck.
Head-to-head prediction: Dockers by 4 points
Betting tip: Hayden Young 25+ disposals.
North Melbourne vs Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide) Prediction
Saturday, May 25th, 1:45 PM AEST- Blundstone Arena
Essendon rolled along in 3rd gear and took care of the Roos without much problem.
And what do we make of Port? Outplayed by the Hawks for 121 minutes only to steal a famous victory with two goals in 44 seconds.
The Power forward line is stuck in the mud. The big boys must get going and a date with North could be just the recipe.
We can also enjoy the Jason Horne-Francis v North Melbourne sideshow as well - could be more enjoyable than the game.
Head-to-head prediction: Power by 38 points
Betting tip: Jason Horne-Francis 2+ goals (he keeps winning for us, so we’re going to keep riding on his coattails)
Carlton vs Gold Coast Prediction
Saturday, May 25th, 1:45 PM AEST - Marvel Stadium
Here we have a real acid test for both clubs.
The Blues fell in against the Dees a fortnight ago and thank heavens they did because otherwise they’d be on a four-game slide.
I expected more from Harry and Charlie against an undersized Swans defence but in fairness, the midfield was bashed up - at times embarrassed.
Another gun group of on-ballers are arriving for duty.
Last week, Anderson, Flanders, Miller, and Rowell combined for 146 disposals, 20 tackles and a few goals.
Sam Walsh was kept to 20 by James Jordon but Damien Hardwick typically prefers to back his system… a big decision to be made by the Suns coaches.
The winner charges back into contention whilst the loser has some serious questions to answer when it comes to being a participant in September - and for Carlton, missing the eight is a complete no-no.
Head-to-head prediction: Blues by 17 points
Betting tip: Charlie Curnow 3+ goals & Sam Walsh 30 dispsals
Geelong vs GWS Giants Prediction
Saturday, May 25th, 4:35 PM - GMHBA Stadium
Again, a clash with major consequences for the losing side.
A win restores some momentum for the winner but Geelong has gone from undefeated to wobbly inside a month and GWS have done similar with back-to-back losses against Essendon and the Dogs.
The Cats were down a few soldiers in Darwin and copped a hiding. You’d imagine with the returning stars, their performance will lift.
Gold Coast gobbled up the Cats around the ball last week and GWS have a similarly talented midfield group - so could we see them dominate around the ball as well?
Stephen Coniglio, Tom Green, Finn Callaghan, and big Kieren Briggs in the middle are more than enough to give the Giants forwards a first look. And for parts of the season, Geelong’s tall defenders have been underperforming.
Head-to-head prediction: Giants by 10 points
Betting tip: Kieren Briggs 15 + disposals
Richmond vs Essendon Prediction
Saturday, May 25th, 7:40 PM AEST - MCG
DreamTime at The G can serve up a beauty no matter where the teams are on the ladder.
And we’ll need to believe that because Richmond is in a world of pain.
200 points worth of whooping in the past fortnight has everyone wondering how things got this bad, this quick. 18 injuries do not help.
The Dons cruised through last week against the Roos. And maybe they can again here but I watched the Tigers beat Sydney on a sunny afternoon at the MCG… lightning occasionally strikes twice.
Head-to-head prediction: Bombers by 38 points
Betting Tip: Kyle Langford 2+ goals
Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction
Sunday, May 26th, 1:10 PM AEST - Marvel Stadium
The Hawks will respond one of two ways after that heartbreaker in Adelaide - fight and rebound or wallow in what should’ve been.
They’re moving the ball nicely again and getting steep improvement from Nick Watson, Josh Weddle, Jack Ginnivan, Will Day, and others.
They’d love to get Mitch Lewis back - a man I thought could kick 60 goals.
The Lions completely gobbled up Richmond in southeast Queensland. Charlie Cameron got his groove back, Kai Lohmann kicked a bag, and Joey Daniher had 20 and kicked 3. Everyone got rolling.
And whilst this will be a much harder task, a visit to Docklands against an average defensive team should warm the hearts of the Lions players looking to salvage season 2024.
Head-to-head prediction: Lions by 21 points
Betting tip: Jarrod Berry 20 + disposals
Narrm (Melbourne) vs Euro-Yroke (St Kilda) Prediction
Sunday, May 26th, 3:20 PM AEST - MCG
The Dees arrive minus Jake Lever and off the back of a surprise loss in the west.
Steven May had his colours lowered so look out. Max King. Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver will also be looking for a bounce-back performance.
The Saints simply must be willing to score. Be willing to risk giving up a goal to score a goal. At the moment, they’re painful to watch and that’s coming from someone who does not support them.
Imagine being a fan…
Move Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera-Milera or Jack Sinclair (or both) to a wing and give them the damn ball every time they’re running by.
The stagnant sideways stuff must end - or the season will instead - if it’s even still alive.
Head-to-head prediction: Dees by 18 points
Betting tip: Steven May 20 disposals
Kuwarna (Adelaide) vs Maalitj Marawar (West Coast) Prediction
Sunday, May 26th, 4:40 PM AEST - Adelaide Oval
Non-negotiable for Adelaide here. No more excuses. No more leaving things to chance - because chance has not been on your side.
West Coast is no longer a pushover and Harley Reid and Jake Waterman are proving to be quite the dynamic duo.
Waterman would be leading the Coleman outright if not for a missed game through concussion and Reid is getting more damaging and potent by the week.
McGovern and Duggan also deserve some love down back.
The Crows’ past fortnight has been painful. A draw against Brisbane and a grueling loss at The ‘G against the Pies.
Their form is clearly improved but the wins are not coming.
A win must come here. Or she’s totally done for 2024.
Head -to head prediction: Crows by 23 points
Betting tip: Ben Keays 2+ goals.