<p>Winning a preliminary final is a beautiful thing. The build-up is gigantic and the achievement and realisation you’ve made a Grand Final is very cool.</p> <p>For Brisbane, Geelong, Port Adelaide and Sydney – that goal is one win away. We get three of this season’s top four teams plus a Grand Finalist from 2023. A deserving bunch.</p> <p>So, who is going to the big dance and whose season ends here? Here is how I see these two Preliminary Finals playing out and who should go through to play for it all.</p> <p>For the latest analysis, news, odds and betting tips for all of this week’s action, check out my AFL Preliminary Finals tips and predictions below, or follow me <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed/profile/view/56/ist_ambassador_deeplink_action">on the feed</a> and see them there!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, September 20, 7:40pm AEST – SCG</strong></em></p>

<p>The Swans arrive in a home prelim as virtually unbackable favourites against a team almost everyone expected to fall out in straight sets.</p> <p>The weirdest part to all that is, the team no one really gives a chance to, hammered the No. 1 seeds by ONE HUNDRED AND TWELVE POINTS only five weeks ago.</p> <p>Shall we also include the fact Port have defeated the Swans the past EIGHT times they’ve clashed!? It’s quite the stunning set of stats and facts!</p> <p>But here’s why I have Sydney winning anyway. Sydney felt like a wounded team looking for a refresh, as well as needing some troops returning to the fray.</p> <p>Tom Papley resumed in sensational form whilst big Brodie Grundy looked like he did when he was the premier big man in the competition across the opening half of the season. Coming back and pinching victory against GWS gave them an extra week off to sharpen the focus and rest the bodies.</p> <p>Port Adelaide’s major weapon is its midfield group, but they run into a group I think not only matches them, but actually surpasses them for overall quality and potency.</p> <p>Grundy should be able to control Jordon Sweet in the ruck and you know James Rowbottom will do the job around stoppage against whoever the Swans’ coaches send him toward. James Jordon likes to tag from outside the centre bounce but I’m not sure there’s anyone at half back he will attempt to quell.</p> <p>Names on the whiteboard – Grundy, Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney, Rowbottom and Errol Gulden versus Sweet, a wounded Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Horne-Francis and Connor Rozee and I am siding with the Swans.</p> <p>You’ve also got to imagine replicating that level of pressure and intensity will be challenging for Port Adelaide – especially on the road. Their pressure and heat was relentless last week, never allowing the Hawks to string ball movement chains together or feel any type of comfort.</p> <p>Todd Marshall drops out, meaning Charlie Dixon likely earns a reprieve but he’s only playing (in my humble opinion) if you know he can physically get through the game. Too many times this season he’s been hobbling around in the second half.</p> <p>Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent, Jake Lloyd and the Swans on-ballers will walk the ball out of defensive fifty without proper forward pressure from Port’s forwards.</p> <p>All in all, despite the very obvious and conflicting stats, I’m siding with Sydney – comfortably.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong>Sydney Swans by 28 points.</p> <p><strong>Best bet:</strong> SGM – Jason Horne-Francis anytime goal, Brodie Grundy 15+ disposals &amp; Sydney -20.5.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Brisbane Lions Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, September 21, 5:15pm AEST – MCG</strong></em></p>

<p>On paper at least, this looks the more fascinating contest of the weekend.</p> <p>We saw these two clash in 2022 at the same venue when the Cats hammered the Lions to end their campaign.</p> <p>The two teams are very different, just two years on. Geelong will have half a dozen different names whilst Brisbane will have around eight new faces from that clash.</p> <p>Lawson Humphries and Zach Guthrie offset the loss of Tom Stewart in the qualifying final. Their rebound and dash was brilliant and really kick started so many forward thrusts in what was close enough to a perfect display from these Cats. Stewart will return and make that defensive six even stronger!</p> <p>They’ll need to be, though. Charlie Cameron (2), Zac Bailey (1), Kai Lohmann (2) and Cal Ah Chee (1.3) all found the goals alongside big Joe Daniher’s four key majors.</p> <p>Lachie Neale was kept in check by Toby Bedford, but the Giants stopper is a perfect match-up for Neale. I’m not as sure Geelong have anyone who can match the dual Brownlow Medallists’ quick feet around the contest. Tom Atkins may get first crack.</p> <p>Ollie Henry and Brad Close will be asked to keep Harris Andrews honest whilst Jack Payne feels a poor match-up for Jeremy Cameron. It’s more likely Payne goes to Shannon Neale and the more versatile Ryan Lester tackles ‘Jezza.’</p> <p>All in all, this has the hallmarks of a thrilling – and high scoring – preliminary final.</p> <p><strong>H2H tip: </strong>Geelong by 3 points.</p> <p><strong>Best bet: </strong>SGM – Jeremy Cameron 2+ goals, Joe Daniher 2+ goals, Josh Dunkley 25+ disposals &amp; Geelong H2H.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL 2024 Premiership Odds</h2>