Nathan Fielder's Elizabeth Holmes Documentary: You Can See Everything Oscars Odds

Nathan Fielder spent years teaching struggling businesses how to fail upwards. Now he might’ve done just that on his way to the Oscars.

You Can See Everything, the Nathan Fielder documentary made with Lance Oppenheim, follows Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she reported to prison.

It was shot in secret, revealed with a surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in September and then screened at the New York Film Festival.

Then the box office got involved. A24's release opened to around US$15 million from just 855 cinemas in the US, the biggest documentary opening in 13 years.

So, is this the start of an Oscars run? 

It sits at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes & 9.3 on IMDB and is the film on every critics mind.  

The 99th Academy Awards nominations are due on 21 January 2027, with the ceremony set for 14 March 2027 - let's see if going to one of Canada’s top business schools and getting really good grades finally pays off. 

For all the latest novelties odds, from Best Documentary to Oscars speech bingo, check out every market below.

Will You Can See Everything Win Best Documentary Feature at the 

This is the market that everything else hangs off and it has You Can See Everything as a clear favourite.

The case for is simple. Record box office, festival buzz from Telluride to New York, and a subject in Holmes that every voter already knows.

The case against? The documentary branch can be unpredictable and this film plays with the rules of nonfiction. Some viewers walk out unsure what was real and what was performance.

That's either a masterstroke or a dealbreaker, depending on who's voting.

Betting tip: Yes.

Will You Can See Everything Be Nominated for Best Picture?

Here's the history lesson. No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture.

A24 is pushing the film for the big one anyway, and the market rates it a strong chance of making history in a field of 10 nominees.

We're not so sure. Breaking a 98-year streak is a big ask, even for a film that's already breaking box office records. If you think history holds, the No side is where the value sits.

Betting tip: No.

You Can See Everything - Total Oscar Nominations

The line is set at 4.5, so the Over needs five nominations on the night.

Best Documentary Feature looks likely, and a Best Picture nod would add a second. Getting to five from there means landing in categories that rarely make room for a documentary.

That's a lot to ask of a film that already has to convince voters it belongs in the doc category.

Betting tip: Under 4.5 nominations.

Will Nathan Fielder Be Oscar Nominated for Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor?

Fielder appears on screen in You Can See Everything, but he appears as himself, in a documentary.

That's why this market sits where it does. A Yes would be one of the strangest results in Oscars history, which, to be fair, is exactly the sort of thing Fielder might pull off.

Betting tip: No.

Oscars Speech Bingo - What Will Nathan Fielder Say?

Now for the fun one. This market settles on the exact words Fielder says in an acceptance speech at the 99th Academy Awards. Bets are void if he doesn't win an Oscar, or doesn't speak after a win.

The shortest options lean on the film itself and his back catalogue:

• “Theranos”, the company Holmes founded and the reason she's in the film.
• “Rehearsal,” as in his HBO series The Rehearsal.
• “The Curse,” Emma Stone and Benny Safdie, from the Showtime series he co-created with Safdie and starred in alongside Stone.
• “Planes” and “Pilot,” a nod to season 2 of The Rehearsal, which was built around aviation and saw Fielder get his commercial pilot's licence.

The Rehearsal is the obvious name-drop. But Theranos is the one word that's hard to avoid when the film is about Holmes.

Betting tip: Theranos.

Will The Rehearsal Season 3 Be Announced Before the 99th Academy Awards?

This one settles on an official announcement from HBO and/or Fielder that season 3 of The Rehearsal is coming, before or during the 99th Academy Awards. Rumours don't count.

There's been no official confirmation of a third season at the time of writing. HBO boss Casey Bloys has said publicly that the door is open, and that Fielder has been talking ideas with HBO's head of comedy, Amy Gravitt.

A big Oscars campaign keeps Fielder in the headlines. Whether HBO wants to announce in that window is the question.

Betting tip: Yes.

Nathan Fielder's Next Project After You Can See Everything

This market settles on the first project Fielder releases or announces after You Can See Everything, confirmed by Fielder and/or the production companies. Bets are void if there's no new project before 2028.

The Rehearsal season 3 heads the market, which makes sense given HBO's public comments. A brand new TV series is next in line, with a feature film, another documentary and a Nathan for You revival further out.

Betting tip: The Rehearsal Season 3.

What Podcast Will Nathan Fielder Appear On Next?

The last market settles on the next podcast Fielder appears on in person, as a guest or co-host, released after 20 October 2026. Re-released interviews don't count.

A24 is distributing You Can See Everything, so the studio's own podcast heads the market. Good Hang with Amy Poehler, How Did This Get Made?, The Town and Happy Sad Confused round out the main options.

Betting tip: The A24 Podcast.

Odds are subject to change.*