Hawthorn and Brisbane will try to secure a place in the 2026 AFL Grand Final when they meet in a preliminary final at the MCG on Saturday evening. 

The Hawks earned their home prelim with an upset 72-40 win over minor premier Fremantle in the qualifying final. 

Co-captain James Sicily starred with 26 disposals, 12 intercepts and 10 marks while helping contain the Dockers’ high-powered forward line. 

Meanwhile, the Lions kept their hopes of a historic three-peat alive with a resounding 144-91 victory over the Crows in last Saturday’s semi-final. 

Zac Bailey impressed just days after signing a major contract extension, finishing with 23 disposals and three goals. 

Lions coach Chris Fagan is confident All-Australian forward Logan Morris will be available despite finishing the match on the bench with ice on his calf. 

Brisbane defeated Hawthorn 125-58 at home in Round 22. Can they repeat the feat here and win through to their fourth consecutive Grand Final? Let’s find out! 

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of this Preliminary Final, check out our Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions prediction and preview below.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

How much relevance does the most recent clash between these two sides actually hold?

In that Round 22 game, just 5 weeks ago at the Gabba, the Hawks were handed a genuine hammering. Brisbane won 125-58, a 67-point pounding that left Hawthorn to take a look in the mirror.

It appears that the mirror gave them some answers and those answers may have led directly to the Western Australian ambush a fortnight ago.

Brisbane have been magnificent in MCG games in September, with Grand Final victories and preliminary final wins aplenty in the last few years. They will believe here, and they have every right to.

For the Hawks, their 2025 visit to the 'G for a preliminary final ended with a Patrick Dangerfield classic and a 30-point loss. Danger finished that night with 32 disposals and three goals and Hawthorn have had 12 months to think about it.

Both squads will be primed, and both will believe they are the best team left standing in these finals. Because of that, we would suggest we are in for an instant classic.

Brisbane's ability to win the game in a 10-minute burst is what separates them and we think they find that burst somewhere after half-time.

Betting tip: Brisbane Lions. 

First Goal Scorer Prediction 

He looks set to be cleared to play and what a welcome sight for both the Lions and those looking for a first goal scorer pick. 

Brisbane and All-Australian forward Logan Morris has been the first goal-scorer in each of Brisbane's last two matches at the MCG.

Betting tip: Logan Morris.

Most Disposals Prediction 

Will Ashcroft has recorded 30+ disposals in 10 of Brisbane's last 12 matches.

Betting tip: Will Ashcroft.

Total Game Points Prediction 

Eight of Brisbane's last nine Finals matches have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over 185.5 points. 

Line Prediction

Hawthorn has failed to cover the line in each of their last four Preliminary Final matches at the MCG.

Betting tip: Brisbane (-2.5) line. 

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Predicted Teams 

Hawthorn Predicted Team List 

B: James Sicily, Tom Barrass, Blake Hardwick

HB: Karl Amon, Harry Morrison, Josh Battle

C: Jarman Impey, Will Day, Massimo D'Ambrosio

HF: Dylan Moore, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan

F: Nick Watson, Mitchell Lewis, Jack Gunston

R: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward

I/C: Josh Weddle, Bailey MacDonald, Cameron Mackenzie, Max Beattie, Connor MacDonald

Brisbane Lions Predicted Team List 

B: Noah Answerth, Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester

HB: Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Gardiner, Dayne Zorko

C: Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage, Zac Bailey

HF: Charlie Cameron, Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann

F: Eric Hipwood, Cameron Rayner, Conor McKenna

R: Sam Draper, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft

I/C: Oscar Allen, Lachie Neale, Levi Ashcroft, Darcy Fort, Darcy Wilmot

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Match Details 

Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026.

Kick-off: 5:15pm AEST. 

Location: MCG, Melbourne.