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Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers Prediction

01/05/2025|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

Hawthorn hosts Richmond at the MCG on Sunday afternoon in a meeting between two Victorian rivals. 

Last Sunday, the Hawks did what they needed to do when they got over the Eagles in quite an unspectacular affair at Marvel Stadium. Still, a 50-point win to get back on the winner's list is nothing to be sneezed at. They now get an opportunity to re-fine-tune their game and get HokBall back on track, starting with Richmond at the MCG on Sunday.

It’s set to be a big day for the Hawks at the G on Sunday as they celebrate their 100th birthday. Rest assured, there will be a smorgasbord of brown-and-gold royalty being celebrated by the fans as they revel in their success of 100 -years of Hawthorn. And who better to celebrate your big birthday against than the team that you played on your very first day in the VFL/AFL? Richmond!

The Tigers were far from disgraced on ANZAC Eve against the Dees. The Dees got the chocolates and the win, but you could easily argue that Richmond was more impressive.

The Hawks' win did come at a little cost and will be forced into some changes at the selection table. Jack Scrimshaw and Karl Amon were both concussed during the game against the Eagles and are in concussion protocols. 

For the Tigers, Spearhead Tom Lynch should be good to go after he had his foot trodden on against the Demons, while Noah Balta is set to return after missing ANZAC Eve due to his 10pm curfew. Adem Yze has managed his youth throughout this year, is this the week that he finally gives a debut to highly touted youngster Josh Smillie after another strong VFL performance?  

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Hawks vs Tigers predictions and preview below.

 

Hawthorn vs Richmond Predicted Teams

 

Hawthorn Predicted Team 

B: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barass, James Sicily

HB: Jarman Impey, Josh Battle, Josh Weddle

C:  Massimo D’Ambrosio, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald

HF: Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol, Josh Ward

F: Nick Watson, Jack Gunston, Dylan Moore

Foll: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Henry Hustwaite

Int: Harry Morrison, Changkuoth Jiath, Finn Maginness, James Worpel, Bailey Macdonald

 

Richmond Predicted Team

B: Nathan Broad, Ben Miller, Nick Vlastuin

HB: Jayden Short, Noah Balta, Sam Banks

C: Hugo Ralphsmith, Thomson Dow, James Trezise

HF: Seth Campbell, Jonty Faull, Jack Ross

F: Steely Green, Tom Lynch, Maurice Rioli Jr

Foll: Toby Nankervis, Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper

Int: Rhyan Mansell, Kamdyn McIntosh, Tom Brown, Sam Lalor, Luke Trainor

 

Hawthorn vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

On paper, this one looks like a lay-down misere for the Hawks and a nice confidence-boosting win on their big day. Particularly if you look at the way they dismantled the Tigers last year when they last played at the G.

The Hawks have won their past two over the Tigers and by significant margins too. 

For their glitz and glamour, The Hawks are starting to have some chinks in their game uncovered. 

The Hawks sit 11th for scoring and fourth for points against. Not a huge issue for this point in the year, especially when you look at their matches to come in the coming weeks. 

Veteran forward Jack Gunston has moved from a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ option in the Hawks forward line to a key piece in Sam Mitchell’s lineup. Gunston has kicked 13 goals in his past three weeks and for the first time since he was named in the All-Australian team in 2018, he has kicked multiple goals in five consecutive games.

The Tigers should be well-rested coming off a 10-day break. One thing they have managed to do well this year is rebound well out of their defensive 50 and get the ball moving forward again. The form of veteran defender Nick Vlastuin is slipping under the radar. He’s carried a big load for the Tigers this year and you think, it’s only going to get bigger.

It would be great to see the Tigers stay with them for a half, but the Hawks should win this one quite comfortably. 

Betting tip: Hawthorn

 

First Goal Prediction

Mabior Chol is continuing to narrow the gap between his best and his worst while turning into a reliable goalkicker since moving to Hawthorn ahead of the start of last season. 

With three goals each in his past two matches, He’ll be looking to cash in against the Tigers here. Starting with the first of the match.

Betting tip: Mabior Chol

 

Most Disposals Prediction

Tigers mid Jacob Hopper has been in top form this season, with an average of 26.6 disposals and 5.6 clearances a game. Reaching game 150 this weekend, he’s carried a big load for the Tigers this year and will be called on to lead the way again.

In his milestone game, he’ll lead the Tigers for most possessions.

Betting tip: Jacob Hopper (25+ disposals)

 

Hawthorn vs Richmond Match Details

 

Date: Sunday, May 4th, 2025. 

First Bounce: 3:20 pm AEST.

Location: MCG, Melbourne.

How to watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports.

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