The 2026 AFL season has delivered its fair share of surprises, but few matches carry the traditional weight of an Easter Monday classic at the MCG.

This year’s instalment sees a resurgent Hawthorn Hawks hosting a Geelong Cats outfit that continues to defy our good mate father time.

The Hawks have transformed the MCG into thei crib for their high-octane brand of football, though they remain a work in progress when forced into a defensive grind away from home.

For Geelong, the narrative remains one of consistency. Despite being overlooked as premiership favourites by many, they have already banked impressive wins over Fremantle and Adelaide this season.

This clash serves as the perfect litmus test for both clubs. Can the Hawks' fleet-footed mid-forwards outgun the Cats disciplined defensive system, or will Geelong's big-game experience once again prove the difference on the grand stage of the MCG?

With both sides looking to cement their spot in the top eight, expect a high-intensity affair to close out your Easter Monday.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Round 4 prediction and preview below.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Match Predictions and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

Like we see on Good Friday for Freo and Adelaide, this clash seemingly arrives at the perfect moment. The Hawks are a gun team at the MCG but can be vulnerable elsewhere when the game style gets cramped.

For Geelong, no one is declaring them as premiership favourites, but they have beaten two really good teams this season in Fremantle and Adelaide.

Remarkably, the Cats have done this damage without much of anything from Jeremy Cameron so far this season.

There’s massive upside there when he clicks into gear. The Hawks will test Geelong nicely with their offensive kicking prowess and hard-running mid-forwards like Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, Nick Watson and Cam Mackenzie.

Cameron and Shannon Neale will need to stand up against an in-form Hawks backline led by Tom Barrass, who is currently in career-best form.

Additionally, the Hawks are likely to hold an advantage in the ruck battle with Lloyd Meek firing.

However, Geelong's ability to find a way in big games is legendary.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 8 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Hawks have been starting fast in the last few matches and this will be no exception. They’ll be looking for key forward Jack Gunston to finish off midfield movements and get the scoring underway.

We’re expecting the Hawks to get out to a good lead, with the experience of Geelong rallying to turn it into a dogfight late in the game.

Gunston doesn’t miss, he should be able to slot one early and open Hawthorn’s account.  

Betting tip: Jack Gunston. 

Most Disposals Prediction

Bailey Smith’s form from 2025 has carried into season 2026, he racked up a ridiculous 40 disposals last week against the Crows.

Bazlenka has built into the season and should be ready to tear up the field in this day game against Hawthorn.

Win, lose or draw we expect Bailey Smith to be heavily involved in dictating the result of the match.

Betting tip: Bailey Smith.

Odds are subject to change.*

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Predicted Teams

Hawthorn Hawks Predicted Team List

FB: Josh Weddle, Tom Barrass, Jarman Impey

HB: Josh Battle, James Sicily, Blake Hardwick

C: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Cam Mackenzie, Josh Ward

HF: Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol, Nick Watson

FF: Dylan Moore, Connor Macdonald, Jack Gunston

Foll: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Karl Amon

I/C: Jack Scrimshaw, Ned Reeves, Conor Nash, Mitch Lewis, Sam Butler

Geelong Cats Predicted Team List

FB: Connor O’Sullivan, Sam De Koning, Jack Henry

HB: Zach Guthrie, Tom Stewart, Oisin Mullin

C: Mark Blicavs, Bailey Smith, Oliver Dempsey

HF: Shaun Mannagh, Jeremy Cameron, Oliver Wiltshire

FF: Jack Martin, Shannon Neale, Oliver Henry

Foll: Mitchell Edwards, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes

I/C: Lawson Humphries, Mark O’Connor, Tanner Bruhn, Gryan Miers, Jhye Clark

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Match Details

Date: Monday, April 6, 2026

First Bounce: 3:15pm AEST

Location: MCG, Melbourne

How to Watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports/ at your mates house