With a home qualifying final well within reach the Hawthorn Hawks will look to take care of business against traditional rival Essendon at the MCG on Saturday.

Round 20 of the 2026 AFL Season sees this matchup more lopsided than ever. 

The Hawks have been clinical. Their dismantling of Richmond last weekend, 122-52, was built on five goals apiece from Nick Watson and Mitch Lewis. 

That result means Hawthorn has now won its past two matches by a combined 134 points and sits just two points behind the second-placed Swans, with a home qualifying final squarely on the radar.

Essendon, by contrast, have been nothing short of dreadful the majority of 2026, with home fans leaving in droves mid-game a regular occurrence. 

They did finally find a win last week, upsetting the frighteningly inconsistent GWS 67-64.

Zach Merrett's 35 touches and a major led from the front. It was just their second win in 31 matches and it came against a side outside the eight.

Whether they can carry any of that into this one is another question. Doubtful that it would even help against this clinical Hawks squad. 

When these sides met in Round 1 earlier this season, Hawthorn dismantled the Bombers 145-83 behind a combined nine goals from Watson and Jack Gunston.

Nothing about Essendon's season suggests that gap has closed, if anything it’s opened. 

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Round 20 prediction and preview below.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

Hawthorn are doing what the best Hawks sides do in the back half of the season: sharpening, not coasting. Two wins by a combined 134 points is not a product of a kind draw.

It is a team that has found its best football at the right time, with multiple avenues to goal, plenty of playmakers up the ground, and quality reinforcements on the way back.

Essendon's win over GWS last week was a genuine moment for a group that has had precious few of them in 2026. Sullivan Robey and Peter Wright kicked the goals that mattered.

The concern now is whether a young side with one win in their last 30-odd matches can re-engage against a team operating at a completely different level. History says they will struggle, and the Round 1 result which was a 62-point hiding at the hands of this same opponent, says it louder.

Co-captain James Sicily remains one of the competition's more intriguing figures, and questions around the Hawthorn leadership structure heading into 2027 are a genuine conversation. Newcombe and Will Day have the credentials to share the burden. For now, Sicily's experience in this fixture matters at the back.

The Hawks should win this, and win it by a distance.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 51 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Nick Watson kicked five goals against Richmond and lines up again across the forward half with the licence to roam. Hawthorn's midfield dominance tends to translate to early scoreboard entries, and Watson has shown all season that he does not need many opportunities to make his presence felt.

If the Hawks start the way they have been starting, Watson will be at the front of the queue.

Betting tip: Nick Watson.

Most Disposals Prediction

Jai Newcombe has been Hawthorn's most consistent accumulator through the middle all season. The honest caveat here is that if the Hawks have this game in hand by half-time, which is a real possibility, Sam Mitchell may give a few players a quieter run ahead of finals.

That is the risk with any Hawthorn disposal tip this week. Even so, Newcombe's floor through the inside is high enough that he should have the numbers well before the game becomes an extended training session.

Betting tip: Jai Newcombe.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Newcombe 22+ disposals, Gunston 4+ goals, Hawthorn to win by 40+, Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goal Scorer.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Predicted Teams

Hawthorn Hawks Predicted Team List

FB: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barrass, James Sicily

HB: Josh Battle, Josh Weddle, Jarman Impey

C: Harry Morrison, Josh Ward, Jack Ginnivan

HF: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Mabior Chol, Dylan Moore

FF: Jack Gunston, Mitch Lewis, Nick Watson

FOLL: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Cam Mackenzie

I/C: Noah Mraz, Bailey Macdonald, Connor Macdonald, William McCabe, Oliver Greeves

Essendon Bombers Predicted Team List

FB: Andrew McGrath, Zach Reid, Jordan Ridley

HB: Nik Cox, Mason Redman, Archie Roberts

C: Angus Clarke, Sam Durham, Jacob Farrow

HF: Dyson Sharp, Nate Caddy, Jaxon Prior

FF: Isaac Kako, Peter Wright, Archer Day-Wicks

FOLL: Nick Bryan, Zach Merrett, Sullivan Robey

I/C: Jaxon Artemis, Jye Caldwell, Max Kondogiannis, Saad El-Hawli, Hussien El Achkar

Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers Match Details

Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026.

First Bounce: 4:15pm

Location: MCG, Melbourne.

How to Watch: Channel 7 / Fox Footy / Kayo Sports.