<p>We’re down to the final four in the race for the 2025 AFL Premiership — and it doesn’t get much better than this.</p> <p>Prelim weekend is arguably the best of the year, with just four teams left standing, all fighting for the chance to book their place on the game’s biggest stage. And let’s be honest — we’ve been absolutely blessed with a blockbuster Friday night matchup to kick it all off: Geelong vs Hawthorn.</p> <p>These two don’t just play footy — they put on theatre. Think: the legendary 1989 Grand Final, the 2008 Hawks upset, the end of the “Kennet Curse” in the 2013 Prelim, Isaac Smith’s infamous 2016 miss, and a whole era of classic Easter Monday showdowns.</p> <p>If recent history is anything to go by, Friday night should deliver yet another instant classic.</p> <p>Let’s dive into the key matchups, team news, betting tips, and who’s set to fire in this Cats vs Hawks blockbuster.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Hawthorn Preview</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This marks the fifth finals meeting between Geelong and Hawthorn since that iconic 2008 decider, and both sides arrive at this point in very different ways.</p> <p>Geelong earned a week off after dismantling Brisbane in the Qualifying Final, showing no signs of rust despite a somewhat patchy end to the home-and-away season. They’ve regained their ruthless edge at just the right time.</p> <p>Hawthorn, meanwhile, have had to do it the hard way — and they’ve done it in style. After surviving a scare against GWS (despite giving up a 40-point lead), they went to Adelaide and smashed the minor premiers, eliminating the Crows in straight sets.</p> <p>That brand of chaotic, exciting “Hokball” that swept fans up in 2024? It’s officially back — and Sam Mitchell is even trying to recruit during the finals. (Yes, really — reports suggest he’s already been pitching to rival stars ahead of the trade period.)</p> <p>While Hawthorn rides a wave of momentum, the Cats have had to weather a few off-field distractions to contend with this week.&nbsp;</p> <p>Starboy Bailey Smith made headlines after an outburst at an open training session, while coach Chris Scott also drew scrutiny following an emotional clash with an AFL official. Both incidents have been publicly smoothed over — but they’ll linger in the background.</p> <p>It’s shaping up to be a watchful but uneventful week on the selection front.&nbsp;</p> <p>Hawks duo Jack Ginnivan and Jack Gunston finished the game against the Crows on the bench, but both have since been cleared of any damage to their respective hamstring niggles. Both are expected to play.&nbsp;</p> <p>Calsher Dear is still at least a week away from returning from a hamstring strain suffered in the first final, which will likely see Mitch Lewis retain his spot in the Hawks team.&nbsp;</p> <p>At the Cats, they have almost a full squad to pick from again. Ruckman Rhys Stanley has resumed training after he nicked a hamstring in the pre-finals bye, but given the strong performance of Mark Blicavs against the Lions, he is set to be given the rucking duties again, along with Sam De Koning.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Players To Watch</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Jai Newcombe</h3> <p>It’s quite amazing to think that this guy was plucked from relative obscurity in country footy, and he is turning into one of the best Finals performers this generation.</p> <p>In all four finals, Newcombe has been the number one-rated player on the ground according to Champion Data.&nbsp;</p> <p>He’s set for a tougher night this Friday with Tom Atkins, Oisin Mullin, and Mark O’Connor all set to take their turn deploying a hard tag on the Hawks bull, but if we’ve seen anything from his previous finals performances to suggest, he knows how to work through it.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Max Holmes</h3> <p>After celebrating his 100th game with a big win to get his Cats through to the final four, it was yet another big performance in the career of Max Holmes, who has steadily risen to superstardom.</p> <p>But here is the one hurdle that Holmes hasn’t been able to clear yet in his young career. In his two Preliminary Finals he has played, he has yet to finish the game in either of them.</p> <p>The game swung in favour of the Lions last year on Prelim day. If he stays out there for the full 120 minutes, the Cats should be on their way.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Mabior Chol</h3> <p>“Always believe in your Chol”&nbsp;</p> <p>It’s been the song that the Hawks fans have serenaded their key forward with, and he has delivered thus far in the two games of this finals series.&nbsp;</p> <p>He didn’t hit the scoreboard against the Crows, but he maintained his presence with three big marks and backing up in the ruck to keep holding his place in the Hawks side as Sam Mitchell mulled over which keys he would stick with.</p> <p>Has a big matchup this weekend with either Jack Henry or Sam De Koning.&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction &amp; Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Who Will Win?&nbsp;</h3> <p>We’re in for an absolute ripsnorter of a game.</p> <p>Geelong has the edge in the recent head-to-head battles against the Hawks, winning four of the past five battles.&nbsp;</p> <p>The last four finals these two sides have played are split at two games apiece, too.&nbsp;</p> <p>The Hawks recruited for this time of year last trade period, and so far, it has paid off with Tom Barrass and Josh Battle both having significant impacts and contributions throughout season 2025 and their September campaigns.&nbsp;</p> <p>They will have massive jobs again this week with Jezza Cameron and Shannon Neale, and the crew of small and medium types that get forward and cause some mischief in front of the goal.</p> <p>The Cats will send their best stopper to Jai Newcombe, but if you’re Sam Mitchell, do you almost send a tagger to Ollie Dempsey? Especially after Chris Scott declared after the last game they played that he has ‘changed the way that they play”.</p> <p>It will be high octane from the get go, and tense from the opening siren.</p> <p>The Cats are refreshed and seasoned, but these Hawks have shown that they are up for and can meet any challenge. Especially having come through two interstate finals.&nbsp;</p> <p>Ity would be mighty, but the Cats have been the benchmark all year and we think they should be good enough. But this will be so good.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-hawthorn-9616955">Cats</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>First Goal Prediction</h3> <p>What’s the most unpredictable part of Hawthorns game? On any given day, any one of their half-forward threats can get under the guard.</p> <p>Connor Macdonald pushed himself to the front of the threat queue in the opening week of the finals with three goals from his four shots. He hit the board again last week to extend his goal tally for the year out to&nbsp; 21.</p> <p>We’re backing him in to hit the first one here.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-hawthorn-9616955">Connor Macdonald</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Most Disposals Prediction</h3> <p>Tom Atkins is one of the best defensive midfielders in the competition. He’s bound to get a big job in quelling one of the Hawks prime movers - Maybe even the job on Jai Newcombe.&nbsp;</p> <p>But, Atkins has found a way to rack up the ball himself along with doing these jobs.</p> <p>His efforts and exploits will have a big say on proceedings on Friday night.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-hawthorn-9616955">Tom Atkins 25+ disposals&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Match Details</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Date:</strong> Friday, September 20th, 2025</p> <p><strong>First Bounce: </strong>7:40 PM, AEST</p> <p><strong>Location:</strong> MCG, Melbourne</p> <p><strong>How to watch: </strong>Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>