Geelong arrive at GMHBA Stadium in Round 22 of the AFL season with a top-four finish locked firmly in their crosshairs and they couldn’t have asked for softer Saturday afternoon assignment to keep the momentum rolling.

Three consecutive wins have brought genuine life back into Chris Scott's side following a mid-season lull and the mood is buzzing down in Geelong.

A 97-72 victory over Collingwood last Thursday was built on a powerful first-half blitz, with winger Ollie Dempsey delivering one of the standout individual performances of his season; 29 disposals, 10 marks and two goals.

The Cats sit seventh entering Round 22, four points shy of a logjam of clubs occupying fourth to sixth on the ladder. With three rounds remaining, percentage is currency and Geelong intends to spend it liberally.

Essendon are just wishing that the season would end already and their fans are too.

They sit at the foot of the ladder following another shellacking; this time 145-73 thumping against the Crows. Their injury toll continues to worsen; the confidence has visibly drained from their performances and Round 22 offers little prospect of relief.

Geelong has won nine consecutive matches against Essendon, with the last Bombers victory over the Cats dating all the way back to Round 9, 2018. This tunnel does get darker, Bombers fans.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Round 22 prediction and preview below.

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

The Cats went into back-to-back weeks without two of their most important forwards, Holmes and Cameron, and answered with two wins. Of course they did — this is Geelong, a club that has been finding internal solutions to external problems for the better part of two decades.

Now comes the easier week. Essendon arrive at Kardinia Park carrying the dead weight of a 72-point loss, a mounting injury list, and a ladder position that says everything about where their 2026 has landed.

On paper, the task for Chris Scott's side is to roll up, do the job, and do it by enough to help their percentage in what is shaping as a congested top-eight race.

The tactical subplot worth watching involves Mason Redman. He was deployed as a tagger against Jordan Dawson in Adelaide's midfield last week with limited success; a similar assignment against Bailey Smith's running game seems plausible.

It is an enormous ask. Zach Reid, meanwhile, was given a thorough lesson by Riley Thilthorpe on Sunday and will be keen to show a cleaner defensive effort against more familiar opposition.

We expect Geelong to be relentless from the opening bounce and with Patrick Dangerfield returning to the fold after missing Round 21 with a hip issue, the Cats' midfield gets a major upgrade at exactly the right time. Form, confidence, and percentage all point in the same direction.

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 71 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Jay Polkinghorne has been a feelgood story in an otherwise unremarkable second half of the Geelong season. Three games back from an interrupted 2026 campaign, the young tall has kicked two, two and three goals respectively; a return that suggests he's found his rhythm at the right time.

Against an Essendon defence that conceded 19 goals last Sunday in Adelaide, Polkinghorne is positioned for another productive afternoon.

He should find his preferred contests early at Kardinia Park, with Geelong's forward chain likely to be fed generously from the moment the first clearance breaks.

Betting tip: Jay Polkinghorne.

Most Disposals Prediction

There may be no more predictable market in this matchup; with the exception of H2H.

Bailey Smith gets to operate against a side that has consistently bled disposals and clearances all season and he now does so with Angus Clarke absent through concussion and Darcy Parish's availability uncertain.

The corridors across Kardinia Park will open up early and stay open.

Smith will win the ball at stoppages, break through transition and accumulate in the kind of numbers that make him such a reliable selection in this market against inferior opposition.

Betting tip: Bailey Smith.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Geelong to win by 40+ + Bailey Smith 30+ disposals + Zach Merrett 25+ disposals + Jay Polkinghorne 3+ goals.

Odds are subject to change.*

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Predicted Teams

Geelong Cats Predicted Team List

FB: Mark O'Connor, Connor O'Sullivan, Tom Stewart

HB: Tanner Bruhn, Jack Henry, Zach Guthrie

C: Mark Blicavs, Bailey Smith, Oliver Dempsey

HF: Oliver Wiltshire, Oliver Henry, Gryan Miers

FF: Jay Polkinghorne, Shannon Neale, Shaun Mannagh

Foll: Mitchell Edwards, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins

I/C: Lawson Humphries, Jhye Clark, Oisin Mullin, James Worpel, Jack Martin

Essendon Bombers Predicted Team List

FB: Andrew McGrath, Zach Reid, Zak Johnson

HB: Jaxon Prior, Archie Roberts, Mason Redman

C: Jye Caldwell, Sam Durham, Jaxon Artemis

HF: Kyle Langford, Nate Caddy, Archer Day-Wicks

FF: Isaac Kako, Peter Wright, Jacob Farrow

Foll: Nick Bryan, Zach Merrett, Dyson Sharp

I/C: Hussien El Achkar, Will Setterfield, Harrison Jones, Max Kondogiannis, Rhys Unwin

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Match Details

Date: Saturday, August 8, 2026

First Bounce: 4:35pm AEST

Location: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports