<p>We’ve been blessed with an absolute ball-tearer of a Qualifying Final here.</p> <p>For the ninth time in 10 seasons, Geelong has finished the home-and-away season in the top eight — five of those in the top two, with two minor premierships. A model of consistency.</p> <p>At the other end of the ladder (figuratively, not literally) are the Brisbane Lions — the reigning premiers who look primed to launch another serious September campaign.</p> <p>We’re still not quite over the ridiculous Preliminary Final these two sides played last year at the MCG, and footy fans are lucky to get a rematch 12 months on.</p> <p>They’re two of the last three premiers, and have been among the pace-setters for most of the season. With top-tier recruiting, strong leadership, and deep lists, these are two of the best-run clubs in the AFL over the past decade. A dream September match-up for neutrals.</p> <p>And let’s be honest — the general consensus (and my belief too) is that the winner of this one becomes the premiership favourite.</p> <p>For team news, odds, betting tips and key matchups, check out our Geelong vs Brisbane Qualifying Final preview below.</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Brisbane Preview</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>These are two teams that just know what it takes to get the job done at this time of year.</p> <p>Geelong and Brisbane have already clashed twice this season, with the Lions winning both.</p> <p>They opened their account in the rescheduled Opening Round at the Gabba (Round 3), before putting in a commanding performance in Round 15, defeating the Cats by 41 points at GMHBA — a result that helped turn around their premiership defence.</p> <p>But since that night, Geelong has lost just once and has become remarkably healthy — so healthy, in fact, that only one player is currently on their injury list. That level of availability is gold in September.</p> <p>The Lions’ run home has been more turbulent. Despite delivering some dominant performances, the tight race for finals spots meant they briefly flirted with the unthinkable: missing the top eight altogether. But back-to-back wins to close the season locked in a top-four finish and renewed momentum.</p> <p>Importantly, the Lions come into this one with no fear of the MCG — a ground that haunted them for years until they finally exorcised those demons in last year's finals series.</p> <p>And with the knowledge that a final at the Gabba awaits — either in a semi or a prelim — they’ve got every reason to believe.</p> <p>They’ll get an extra confidence boost with the confirmed return of the skipper, Lachie Neale, who has overcome a quad injury, while Jarrod Berry should also be right to take his place after injuring his shoulder late in the season.&nbsp;</p> <p>Preferred ruckman Oscar McInerney is also making a case to be a part of the September run after battling persistent injuries this season following his shoulder injury in last year's Preliminary Final.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Players To Watch</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Max Holmes</h3> <p>The Cats were cantering their way to another Grand Final when they opened up a four-goal lead over the Lions in the third quarter of last year’s Prelim. Then Max Holmes went off the field injured, and everything changed.</p> <p>He was well on the trajectory then, but this year, Holmes has become one of the stars of the competition, with his partnership with Bailey Smith as the Cats’ drivers forwards integral to how they play.</p> <p>Friday night is also Holmes' 100th AFL game, and he will be looking to make up for the time he lost at the end of last year.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Cam Rayner</h3> <p>The number one pick has gone from the player who needs early involvement to keep engaged to the most likely to win you the game in a short burst.</p> <p>How Chris Fagan chooses to deploy Rayner throughout the finals series, whether he’s a permanent fixture forward of the ball, or will have bursts on the ball and in the midfield rotation, could define the game for the Lions.&nbsp;</p> <p>To Cam Rayner’s extraordinary credit, he’s become a pivotal magnet that opposition coaches need to plan for at length.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Harris Andrews</h3> <p>Re-affirming his status as the premier key defender in the game when he was unveiled as an All-Australian yet again this week, Harris Andrews will have his hands full with Jeremy Cameron.</p> <p>The Lions skipper is one of the best one-on-one defenders in the game and is often the brick wall at the back and conducting the next play for the Lions.&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction &amp; Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Who Will Win?&nbsp;</h3> <p>The Lions have won the past three games against the Cats, with two of them coming away from home.&nbsp;</p> <p>Since the turn of the century, these sides have met in three finals matches (all preliminary finals), with the Lions leading two wins to one in the post-season.&nbsp;</p> <p>The Cats finished the season with the mantle of the number one profile in the competition, ranking first for offence and third for defence. It matches the winning streak and strong run of form.</p> <p>The Lions are back in fifth for overall profile, ranking third on offence and seventh on defence.&nbsp;</p> <p>The returning players from injury are also a big factor here, given the Cats are healthy as can be, and the Lions' returning stars might need a quarter or a run to settle back into the cut and thrust of it all.</p> <p>It’s a coin flip. Whoever wins this will be the team to beat on the last day, I think.</p> <p>We’re sticking with the Cats at home, but it could go either way.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9551769">Cats</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>First Goal Prediction</h3> <p>This time last year, Shaun Mannagh made his name in a Qualifying Final with a sparkling performance against Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. 12 months on, he’s emerged as one of the in-form forward-half players in the competition and is a dangerous threat around goal.</p> <p>We’re picking him to hit the board first, getting the home crowd behind the Cats nice and early.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9551769">Shaun Mannagh</a>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Most Disposals Prediction</h3> <p>There’s no shortage of ball magnets in this one — Neale, Guthrie, Duncan, Smith, McCluggage — but there’s great value in backing Josh Dunkley.</p> <p>He finished the season strong, averaging 28.2 disposals from his past five games, including three 30+ disposal games. In recent battles against the Cats, He’s averaged 27.4 disposals per game over the last five, including 28 in the prelim.</p> <p>He’s a proven big game performer and should see plenty of it again.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lio">Josh Dunkley 27+ disposals&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Match Details</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Date:</strong> Friday, September 5th, 2025</p> <p><strong>First Bounce:</strong> 7:40 PM, AEST</p> <p><strong>Location:</strong> MCG, Melbourne</p> <p><strong>How to watch:</strong> Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports</p>