Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Prediction - Round 3 2026

Each with a win and a loss to kick off the season, Geelong and Adelaide look to gain an early advantage when the two sides meet at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night.

The Cats enter this contest well rested after a rollercoaster fortnight, beaten heavily by Gold Coast in Opening Round before running over the top of a quality Freo outfit in a 10-point win at home.

Max Holmes led the way in that win with 32 disposals, showing he’s ready for another huge season at Geelong.

The Cats will return home to face a Crows side during its six-point loss to the undefeated Dogs in Friday night’s thriller, the match of the round in Round 2.

The Crows surged to a late lead after trailing by 25 in the fourth, before letting it slip at the death.

Adelaide has not beaten Geelong since Round 1, 2021 and has not won a game in Geelong since 2003.

The last meeting between these two in Round 5 last season saw the Cats prevail on the road by 19, with sharpshooters Darcy Fogarty and Jeremy Cameron each booting four.

The 2026 AFL season is heating up and this Thursday night clash under the lights at Kardinia Park will test whether the Crows dynamic attacking footy can finally crack the vulnerable Cats.

With massive implications for the early-season ladder, this match has all the makings of an instant classic.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Round 3 prediction and preview below.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

Adelaide needs to break a hoodoo which has existed for longer than some of its players have been alive. 2003 was the last time an Adelaide Crows squad travelled to Kardinia Park and won. That’s something the team should lean into.

The problem is, injuries have struck in the worst way with Rory Laird and Callum Ah Chee grounded.

Queries also remain on the fitness of Jordan Dawson, Josh Worrell, and the veteran Tex Walker.

They’ll also arrive off a short turnaround, just six days since their tough loss to the Dogs. Meanwhile, Geelong are coming off a bye, having not played since Round 1. A questionable filtering decision that clearly favours the home side, who writes this draw?

And because of that, the Cats should roll here. Taking care of big Riley Thilthorpe is priority one and Izak Rankine the second job on their agenda.

But, aside from that, you just feel Holmes, Smith, Miers, Cameron, Neale, and others will be too much for a wounded Crows unit to handle. An Adelaide win would be epic, but the history books suggest otherwise.

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 21 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Jeremy Cameron loves the big stage at Kardinia and has a formidable record against the Crows, booting four majors in their last encounter.

With a height advantage likely against a depleted Adelaide defence, expect the ball to find Jezza early.

The two-time Coleman medal winner is still the most dangerous scoring threat in the competition and is primed to get the Cats on the board early in front of their wild home fans.

Betting tip: Jeremy Cameron.

Most Disposals Prediction

Max Holmes was electric in his last outing, racking up 32 touches to guide the Cats past the Dockers. With his elite speed, he is the prime candidate to exploit the wider field at Kardinia Park.

While Jordan Dawson is always a threat for Adelaide, the absence of Rory Laird in the midfield puts an enormous burden on the Crows' that Holmes and Bailey Smith will capitalise on.

It’s a toss-up between Bailey Smith and Max Holmes for the most involvements in this one.

Betting tip: Max Holmes.

*Odds are subject to change.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Predicted Teams

Geelong Cats Predicted Team List

FB: Connor O’Sullivan, Jack Henry, Sam De Koning

HB: Tom Stewart, Zach Guthrie, Lawson Humphries

C: Mark Blicavs, Bailey Smith, Oliver Dempsey

HF: Brad Close, Shaun Mannagh, Jack Martin

F: Jeremy Cameron, Shannon Neale, James Worpel

FOLL: Mitchell Edwards, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes

I/C: Oisin Mullin, Jhye Clark, Tanner Bruhn, Gryan Miers, Mark O’Connor

Adelaide Crows Predicted Team List

FB: Nick Murray, Jordon Butts, Chayce Jones

HB: Brayden Cook, Josh Worrell, Wayne Milera

C: Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine, Isaac Cumming

HF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Keays, Josh Rachele

F: Riley Thilthorpe, Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty

FOLL: Lachlan McAndrew, Sam Berry, Jake Soligo

I/C: James Peatling, Luke Pedlar, Max Michalanney, Sid Draper, Toby Murray

Note: Callum Ah Chee (hamstring) and Rory Laird (soleus) are unavailable.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows Match Details

Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026

First Bounce: 7:30pm AEDT

Location: GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports