<p>Ten squads begin holidays, whilst the rest begin the chase for the Cup.</p> <p>September is here, and spring has sprung. The very best time to be playing footy!</p> <p>Adelaide has jumped from near last to first. Congrats to them on their first minor premiership since 2017.</p> <p>Brisbane looks ready to pursue back-to-back premierships, providing a few big guns are healthy.</p> <p>The Pies are wobbly… but remain dangerous and feared.</p> <p>The Dockers had to do the impossible just to be here. Now they have a home final against an opponent many think they’ll handle.</p> <p>Geelong keeps on keeping on. It’s just what they do. They’re primed.</p> <p>Greater Western Sydney might be the sleeping giant (pardon the pun). A straight-sets capitulation can drive you a long way.</p> <p>Their opponents, Hawthorn, are dangerous. No one wants to see them at their very best.</p> <p>And then there’s the newbie. The Gold Coast Suns are finally here. Imagine them making a deep run.</p> <p>Eight clubs. All deserving of making it to Finals footy, all of them are dangerous.</p> <p>Here’s how we’re seeing week one of the 2025 AFL Finals.</p> <p>For the latest analysis, news, odds, and betting tips for all this week’s action, check out my AFL Finals week 1 tips and predictions below, or follow me <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/feed/profile/view/56/ist_ambassador_deeplink_action">on the feed</a> and see them there!&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Adelaide vs Collingwood Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Thursday, September 4, 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Pies went over to Adelaide only a few weeks ago and almost pinched victory in what turned out to be a bizarre - and highly dramatic - clash.</p> <p>Collingwood were +34 for inside fifties but could not manage to scrounge the win. A similar result on entries would see the Pies win - you simply cannot dominate field position like that twice and not win.</p> <p>For Adelaide, Rankine’s loss will be felt.</p> <p>They might be able to overcome it, but it will be felt at some stage. In big moments this season, Rankine was able to make something from nothing. He also allowed Jordan Dawson to roll forward at times, which is going to be harder to do now.</p> <p>The Crows' understated on-ballers will need to perform.</p> <p>Sam Berry, Jake Soligo, and James Peatling will be important if Dawson is clamped. They’ll also need some midfield assistance from half-forwards like Keays and Neal-Bullen.</p> <p>The Pies' aerial defence was sensational through two-thirds of the season, but has been wayward lately.</p> <p>Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard, and Billly Frampton - a former Crow - will all need to perform better to quell The Thrill Seeker and his wingmen, Fogarty and Tex Walker.</p> <p>Adelaide should be winning - and their premiership assault might depend on it.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/adelaide-crows-v-collingwood-9551766">Crows by 17 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet: </strong>Taylor Walker 2+ goals &amp; Rory Laird 21+ disposals</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, September 5, 7:40pm AEST - Adelaide Oval</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We witnessed one of the games of the modern era when these two clubs clashed last September at The MCG.</p> <p>The Cats led by 25 points early in Q3 in that prelim before the Lions exploded, kicking five goals and taking a lead at the final turn for home.</p> <p>A quick snap from Cal Ah Chee and a mercurial left foot bomb from Cam Rayner sealed the deal, and the Lions went on to win the decider by a million the next week.</p> <p>Earlier this season, Brisbane won both encounters.</p> <p>In Queensland, they overcame a 26-point halftime margin with Will Ashcroft (33 disposals and a goal) and Hugh McCluggage (30 disposals, 8 tackles) doing the job.</p> <p>Then, in a highly anticipated contest, the Lions went into GMHBA Stadium and took down these Cats again. It was a 41-point margin, which demonstrated their prodigious overall talent level.</p> <p>Logan Morris kicked five, and Dayne Zorko had 33 from half back.</p> <p>At The ‘G, both teams will feel good.</p> <p>The Lions have won their past five - and six of the past seven - at the home of footy. No fears there for a team that once struggled to compete in Melbourne.</p> <p>Geelong will need goals from Jeremy Cameron and competitiveness from Shannon Neale, as he tries to deal with All-Australian Harris Andrews.</p> <p>This’ll be epic.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions-9551769">Lions by 5 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet: </strong>Will Ashcroft 27+ disposals &amp; Gryan Miers 21+ disposals&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Saturday, September 6, 3:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>How far can past failure drive a squad?</p> <p>That’s what we’ll learn here with GWS, after their 2024 capitulation in consecutive finals.</p> <p>In the all-Sydney qualifying final, GWS led by almost five goals before going down by a goal to the cross-town rivals.</p> <p>It got worse the very next week.</p> <p>A 44-point lead was eroded by the Lions, dumping the Giants out in straight sets.</p> <p>So, how much can they lean into that pain to propel them this season? That’s the question.</p> <p>Health is also a query. Jesse Hogan needs to be back on deck for this club to make a charge. Almost impossible to see them doing damage without the gun goal kicker.</p> <p>Brent Daniels will be back after a nice VFL return. He can be a factor for the Giants with his ball use and speed offensively and defensively.</p> <p>The Hawks are going nicely. They never looked like doing the job in Brisbane in Round 24, but their overall form is strong.</p> <p>Flankers like Moore, Ginnivan, Watson, and Amon are going to be important pieces to make up for the modest midfield group the Hawks possess.</p> <p>GWS have been highly inconsistent at times, but their best footy has looked as good as any we’ve seen.&nbsp;</p> <p>I think they’ll do just enough, but a Hawk victory will not surprise.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/gws-giants-v-hawthorn-9554692">Giants by 11 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> Lachie Whitfield 26+ disposals &amp; Jack Gunston 2+ goals&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> &nbsp;</p> <h2>Fremantle vs Gold Coast Prediction</h2> <p><strong><em>Saturday, September 6, 7:35pm AEST - Optus Stadium</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Freo gave the Dogs the heave-ho and pushed their own ticket into the finals.</p> <p>And the Suns made life harder than it needed to be, but did the job against Essendon to land the eighth ticket in the lottery.</p> <p>Many are saying this will be a Docker victory - and I’d expect that to be the case - but these Suns are fairly dangerous around the ball, staunch behind the ball, and can kick scores with Ben King and Ben Long doing the damage.</p> <p>Alex Pearce will tackle Ben King, as he did with Sam Darcy, whilst Jarrod Witts will have a monster role against Sean Darcy and Action Jackson.</p> <p>Shai Bolton was enormous against the Dogs.</p> <p>They’ll need that version all September to make a run. The beauty is, we know Bolton is more than capable.</p> <p>The Suns will not tag Brayshaw nor Serong, and the Dockers will be unlikely to tag Anderson and Rowell. Maybe it will come down to whichever duo does more damage, powers their club to a semi-final.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/fremantle-v-gold-coast-suns-9554694">Suns by 10 points</a></p> <p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> Ben Long 2+ goals &amp; Andrew Brayshaw 24+ disposals&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>2025 AFL Premiership Odds:</h2>