Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction | Round 12 2025

Friday night footy at the MCG sees two Victorian powerhouses and two perceived heavyweights of this season go head-to-head as Collingwood hosts Hawthorn.

The Pies are flying. 9-2, half a game clear on top of the ladder, and playing aesthetically beautiful football. All the while, managing their aging list and exposing its depth as they battle the peaks and troughs of a season's availability. 

Even without half a dozen of their regular stars, they got the job done convincingly over North Melbourne in the end, putting the foot down in the final quarter to leave Marvel Stadium with a solid 45-point win. 

The Hawks’ mini-slump continued at the MCG, getting blown away in the second quarter on the scoreboard by the Lions as they piled on seven goals to two before halftime. Despite the pluck, it proved a bridge too far.

It leaves the Hawks in an interesting spot. At 7-4, their season is far from the ‘worried about them’ territory, but there are areas of their game that would be of major concern to coach Sam Mitchell and his team.

From one of the hottest teams in the competition pre-season and after an undefeated opening month, the Hawks are now back in the fight among a pack of teams who need to keep winning to keep the chasing pack at arm's length. 

As winter rapidly approaches, the last autumn night of footy in Melbourne should deliver a cracker of a game between two good teams in front of a big crowd.

On a selection front, the revolving door of stars at Collingwood is set to continue as they ring the changes through management and unavailability.

Scott Pendlebury and Bobby Hill are both set to return from illness and personal reasons respectively after being late scratchings for the game against North Melbourne. Steele Sidebottom was managed for the game against the Roos and will return, while Lachie Schultz is progressing through concussion protocols and is expected to be available too.

Brayden Maynard will unfortunately miss the next fortnight at least with a foot injury. Skipper Darcy Moore will also be assessed for a return.

At the Hawks, Jarman Impey should be available again after his wife gave birth to their first child. Veteran forward Luke Breust is a chance to return from a back injury. 

Youngster Cam Mackenzie was subbed out at halftime which could spell trouble. Sam Butler had a monster day for Box Hill with 42 disposals and will surely come into consideration. Late in Finn Maginnes might also be at risk.

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Pies vs Hawks prediction and preview below. 

 

Collingwood vs Hawthorn Predicted Teams

 

Collingwood Predicted Team List

B: Issac Quaynor, Billy Frampton, Jeremy Howe

HB: Dan Houston, Darcy Moore, Josh Daicos

C: Steele Sidebottom, Ned Long, Jack Crisp

HF: Lachie Schultz, Tim Membrey, Scott Pendlebury

F: Bobby Hill, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott

Foll: Darcy Cameron, Pat Lipinski, Nick Daicos

Int: Harry Perryman, Beau McCreery, Brody Mihocek, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Ed Allan

 

Hawthorn Predicted Team List

B: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barass, Jarman Impey

HB: Josh Weddle, Josh Battle, Jack Scrimshaw

C: Karl Amon, Josh Ward, Massimo D’Ambrosio

HF: Connor Macdonald, Jack Gunston, Dylan Moore

F: Nick Watson, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan

Foll: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, James Worpel

Int: Changkouth Jiath, Conor Nash, Sam Butler, Harry Morrison

 

Collingwood vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

Hawthorn holds sway in the recent head-to-head meetings with the Pies, winning three of the past five matches. 

The Hawks actually have a remarkable record against Collingwood, leading the head-to-head 20-7 since 2007. The last time they met, Hawthorn dished out a famous 11-goal shellacking and Jack Ginnivan famously told the Collingwood cheer squad to go to sleep.  

The Hawks are battling in a few areas at the moment, most notably around the middle of the ground and contested ball. It’s hard to understate the loss of just one player (that being Will Day), but the Hawks are missing him a lot. Particularly with Jai Newcombe, James Worpel, and Dylan Moore performing well before their best. 

They’re still ranked as one of the better sides at defending turnovers. They’re third for scores from the defensive half differential but mid-table for scores from the forward half. The best sides are all top five in this metric.

The Magpies are not only banking wins while dealing with their injuries but still playing at a level warranting their flag favouritism. If they are fit at the pointy end of the season and set themselves up with home finals throughout September.

Recent history says Hawthorn, but Collingwood is playing the better footy of the two sides at the moment so we’re inclined to back them in.

Betting tip: Magpies 

 

First Goal Prediction

Jamie Elliott would have to be in career-best form at the moment. 18 goals from his past five matches, including three bags of five, He’s been that marking target in the front half in the absence of Dan McStay.

He’s the man with the hot hand. We’re looking at him to kick off the scoring for the Pies with the first goal of the game.

Betting tip: Jamie Elliott

 

Most Disposals Prediction

What a revelation Ned Long has been for Collingwood this year. Averaging 18.4 disposals per game this season, and coming off a career-high 29 disposals against the Roos, he’ll no doubt be setting himself for another big one against his former club who delisted him at the end of 2023. 

Betting tip: Ned Long 25+ disposals

 

Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks Match Details

 

Date: Friday, May 30th

First Bounce: 7:40 PM, AEST

Location: MCG, Melbourne

How to watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports