Saturday football kicks off with a battle of the birds at the MCG, as Collingwood hosts Adelaide (who will be known as Kuwarna during Indigenous Round).
These two teams have faced off in a series of thrilling matches over the past two years, all seemingly following the same narrative: a close game where the Crows suffer from a late decision or non-decision, allowing Collingwood to secure a narrow victory.
With two in-form teams eager to attack, this match promises to be a spectacular display, adding to the collection of epic games this season. This collection has thankfully been growing with several entries in recent weeks.
The Pies are soaring high, coming off an impressive victory in the west against Fremantle, achieved thanks to Jamie Elliott’s brilliance and the depth of their squad after resting senior players. They still managed to secure a comfortable win in the end, further establishing themselves as the team to beat in 2025.
The Crows are also on a high, fresh off a classic Showdown where they held off Port Adelaide, largely due to the heroics of Irishman Mark Keane (how many times have you watched the replay of his mark, Crows fans?). This victory over their crosstown rivals strengthens their position within the top eight.
With their breakthrough win at the MCG earlier this year—something that evaded the Crows since their Grand Final year in 2017—they return to the home of football, looking to avenge their recent misfortunes against the Pies there.
Collingwood is expected to welcome back some key players, with Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard both set to return after missing the trip west. However, Lachie Schultz will miss the clash due to entering concussion protocols. Additionally, several notable Pies are nursing injuries and must get through training to secure their places, including Nick Daicos, Brody Mihocek, and Jamie Elliott.
Captain Darcy Moore has been ruled out while Jordan De Goey will miss another week.
Fortunately, the Crows have no injuries from the Showdown to be concerned about, and there is no one quickly returning from their injury list either. However, they appear to have a strategy that is effective at present, so there’s no reason for significant changes.
This should be an exciting game.
For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Pies vs Crows prediction and preview below.
Collingwood vs Adelaide Predicted Teams
Collingwood Predicted Team List
B: Brayden Maynard, Charlie Dean, Isaac Quaynor
HB: Harry Perryman, Billy Frampton, Dan Houston
C: Jack Crisp, Pat Lipinski, Josh Daicos
HF: Bobby Hill, Charlie West, Jamie Elliott
F: Beau McCreery, Tim Membrey, Lachie Sullivan
Foll: Darcy Cameron, Nick Daicos, Ned Long
Int: Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Ed Allan
Adelaide Predicted Team List
B: Josh Worrell, Jordan Butts, Rory Laird
HB: Wayne Milera, Mark Keane, Max Michalanney
C: Isaac Cumming, Jordan Dawson, Mitch Hinge
HF: Ben Keays, Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele
F: Darcy Fogarty, Taylor Walker, Alex Neal-Bullen
Foll: Reilley O’Brien, Jake Soligo, Izak Rankine
Int: James Peatling, Dan Curtin, Luke Nankervis, Zac Taylor, Sam Berry
Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips
Head-to-Head Prediction
Collingwood has won the past nine matches between these two sides. You have to go back to Round 17 in 2016 to find the last time the Crows got over the Magpies. Since then, there has been one draw and, despite all the close results and controversial finishes, it’s been all Collingwood.
But as much as history is important, it needs to be taken into account. This battle is shaping up differently, largely thanks to the position the Crows find themselves in.
While the Pies are setting the benchmark for the best overall team profile according to Wheelo Ratings, the Crows are still the number one attacking team in the competition and ranked second for points scored.
The potency of Adelaide’s forward line would be a worry for the Pies. The form of Riley Thilthorpe, as one of the form big men in the competition, coupled with the absence of Darcy Moore, presents an area where the Crows could really gain the ascendency. It’s going to be a big day for Billy Frampton against his old side!
Where they could come unstuck, though, is the dynamism of the Collingwood forward line, who proved last week that any one of them, big or small, can be the main man and kick a bag. It looms as a big day for mid-sized Crows defenders, who could hold the key against the fleet-footed Magpies forward line.
Like the previous two MCG encounters, this should be an absolute cracker. Let's hope it isn’t overshadowed by an interesting umpiring decision. Collingwood should be too good here regardless. They’re in a groove that doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon.
Betting tip: Collingwood
First Goal Prediction
Crows skipper Jordan Dawson has added a new string to his bow. The current Brownlow favourite has pushed forward in recent weeks, with his contested marking and finishing in front of the sticks a feature.
How good would that be for a tone-setter from the skipper to bang home the first?
Betting tip: Jordan Dawson
Most Disposals Prediction
If Nick Daicos is fully fit, he’s the easy option for any Collingwood game. But we’re all about looking outside the square for some value here.
Matt Crouch’s unfortunate injury has opened the door for James Peatling to come into the midfield and excel.
He led all-comers disposal-wise for the Crows and is averaging 22 disposals per game over the past five matches. Which are career-best numbers.
With the focus likely largely on the likes of quelling Dawson, Rankine, Rachele, and Soligo, Peating might be one to get off the chain again for the Crows.
Betting Tip: James Peatling 25+ disposals
Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Match Details
Date: Saturday, May 17th
First Bounce: 1:20 PM, AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
How to watch: Fox Footy/ Kayo Sports