Sunday afternoon footy from the MCG sees Carlton hosting Geelong in what has become an intriguing battle.
The Blues are coming off two wins against two bottom feeders, feasting on both the Eagles and then North Melbourne on Good Friday by 82 points.
But Geelong is a very different beast compared to the previous two opponents the Blues have faced. This will prove a good test of their mettle and confirm if they have truly turned a corner in 2025.
The Cats are in pretty good shape, fresh off a strong win against Adelaide in Gather Round, followed by victory in another Easter Monday classic against the Hawks. They are purring and proving that they will not fall off a cliff. Especially Patrick Dangerfield... my god, that man is a freak of nature.
There's also the addition of Bailey Smith, who has given the usually placid Cats an extra edge.
They will have to make a change at the selection table after Gryan Miers was knocked out and will miss due to concussion protocols. This could open the door for debutant Ollie Wiltshire to complete his rise from local footy to the big time. It appears, too, that the Cats will likely be without important defender Jack Henry again, while Oisin Mullin was a late withdrawal against the Hawks and will be monitored.
For the Blues, Jacob Weitering needs to pass a fitness test after receiving a knock to the knee against North and sitting out the final 10 minutes of the game. Spearhead Harry McKay will also need to pass concussion protocols if he is to reclaim his position in the Carlton side.
The Cats are the last “top eight” team that Carlton has beaten in the last 16 months. Blues fans remember their emotions at the final siren that night at the MCG last year and how things fell apart thereafter.
Can this Sunday be the day when the navy train gets rolling again? Or will the Cats continue to be great?
This game will tell us plenty about where the Blues are at. For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips, check out our Blues vs Cats predictions and preview below.
Carlton vs Geelong Predicted Teams
Carlton Predicted Team
B: Matt Carroll, Jacob Weitering, Nick Haynes
HB: Jack Silvagni, Mitch McGovern, Adam Saad
C: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh
HF: Matt Cottrell, Charlie Curnow, Elijah Hollands
F: Corey Durdin, Harry McKay, Jesse Motlop
Foll: Tom De Koning, George Hewett, Adam Cerra
Int: Ollie Hollands, Cooper Lord, Will White, Zac Williams, Lachie Fogarty
Geelong Predicted Team
B: Tom Stewart, Sam De Koning, Connor O’Sullivan
HB: Lawson Humphries, Mark O’Connor, Zach Guthrie
C: Bailey Smith, Max Holmes, Mark Blicavs
HF: Brad Close, Patrick Dangerfield, Shaun Mannagh
F: Shannon Neale, Jeremy Cameron, Ollie Henry
Foll: Rhys Stanley, Tom Atkins, Ollie Dempsey
Int: Oisin Mullin, Tyson Stengle, Jack Bowes, Mitch Knevitt, Ollie Wiltshire
Carlton vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Tips
Head-to-Head Prediction
The Blues have become somewhat of a ‘bogey’ side for the Cats in recent years, but they still hold sway in the recent head-to-head. The Cats rank third for attack and sixth for defence in the competition.
The Blues are off the pace when it comes to attack, ranked 11th in the competition. Despite their scoring struggles this season, their defence is ranked better than the Cats' (fifth) and they have yet to concede a score of over 90 all season.
The Blues are the best front-half team in the competition. Heading into the game against North last week, they were ranked fifth in the league in total intercepts, with 39% of those intercepts occurring in the mid-forward zone. The best in the league, and it only improved after they put on a front-half clinic against the Roos.
In layman's terms, they are creating turnovers in good spots to generate scoring opportunities.
Their contested ball work is also a strength that could give them an edge in this clash with the Cats, as they are the best clearance and contested ball team in the league.
To win the game, though, the Blues will need to limit the damage done by the dynamic duo of Bailey Smith and Max Holmes.
The two stars are integral to the Cats’ ball movement and speed off half-back, ranked third and first for metres gained respectively in the competition.
In many ways, the way the Cats play emulates the way that the Blues have said they want to play. Their ‘speed and power’ across the field sets them apart from the other premiership contenders.
The Cats have won their past 12 matches played in April too, highlighting just how strong they are at the start of seasons, banking the matches they need to. As they should here.
Betting tip: Geelong.
First Goal Prediction
These matches have become the Jeremy Cameron and Charlie Curnow show.
Cameron has kicked 17 goals from four matches with an average of 4.3 per game. Curnow has 16 goals from four matches with an average of four goals per match.
Both have kicked the first goal in one of these matches before, and being the spearheads, there’s a fair chance they’ll do it again.
Carlton will need to get off to a fast start and will want Curnow to get off to a fast start and set the tone as he so often does.
Betting tip: Charlie Curnow.
Most Disposals Prediction
Last time these teams played, Cats champion was a non- factor as he was tagged out of the game by Alex Cincotta.
With Cincotta not playing, and Carlton likely to select an extra pressure forward rather than tall, and Hewett likely get the Holmes matchup at stoppages, It could open the door for Stewart to dominate again. Much like he has done against Carlton previously.
He averages 22.8 disposals against the Blues in six meetings. Whenever he plays well against them, they usually win. We’re tipping him to go well here, simply because there might not be a perfect matchup for him.
Betting tip: Tom Stewart (25 disposals).
Carlton vs Geelong Match Details
Date: Sunday, April 27th, 2025.
First Bounce: 3:20pm AEST.
Location: MCG, Melbourne.
How to watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports.