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Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Prediction - Round 21

30/07/2026|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

Brisbane arrive at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night chasing an eighth consecutive win and another step toward an historic three-peat.

Carlton welcome them knowing a result here is probably all that stands between them and a genuine shot at Wildcard Weekend.

The Lions are one of the form teams of the competition right now and look to be timing their run to another Grand Final appearance.

Their 126-67 demolition of Port Adelaide at the Gabba on Sunday was as comprehensive as it looked; Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey all kicked three goals each in an impressive team display.

When Brisbane clicks into gear in the second half of games, they're very hard to stop.

Carlton came through last Saturday with more confidence than they've shown in recent weeks, putting Gold Coast away 110-97 in a match where goals came from all over the ground.

Will Hayward, George Hewett and Talor Byrne all kicked three, while Sam Walsh, Jagga Smith and Patrick Cripps all cracked 30 disposals.

Josh Fraser's side enters Round 21 trailing 10th-placed St Kilda on percentage alone.

With just a handful of rounds left, the stakes couldn't be much clearer for the Blues.

The last time these sides met, Brisbane won 100-89 in Round 9, the match that turned out to be Michael Voss' last as Carlton coach. Saturday night gives the Blues a chance at redemption against the reigning premiers.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Round 21 prediction and preview below.

 

Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

Carlton need this game. Brisbane are running hot. Something has to give.

The Lions' second half against Port was the kind of performance that reminds you exactly what separates them from the field.

They went to work after half-time and didn't stop. Zorko at his best off half-back, McCluggage back in the conversation as Brisbane's best midfielder and Ashcroft doing what Ashcroft does.

This is a Brisbane side that has found a rhythm at exactly the right time of year.

The Blues have their own reasons for optimism after a statement victory over Gold Coast. But the Suns are a very different proposition to the back-to-back premiers and Carlton's midfield will be tested far more severely on Saturday night.

We’re expecting Carlton to give this one everything, but against the Lions even a perfect performance may not be enough.

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by 13 points.

 

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Kai Lohmann is having the best season of his career. Two or more goals has become his standard output in 2026 and he moves early, leads hard and often gets the first look from Brisbane’s forward entries.

In a game where Brisbane are expected to attack with confidence from the opening bounce, Lohmann is the pick.

Betting tip: Kai Lohmann first goal scorer.

 

Most Disposals Prediction

Five consecutive games with 30 or more disposals. Will Ashcroft is one of the most consistent ball-winners in right now, he'll be in the thick of it from the first bounce against a Carlton midfield that will push back hard.

The game context suits him. The opposition suits him. The form line suits him; we’ll back him with confidence.

Betting tip: Will Ashcroft most disposals.

 

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Logan Morris 3+ Goals / Brisbane Lions 1-39 / Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals.

 

Odds are subject to change.*

 

Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Predicted Teams

 

Carlton Blues Predicted Team List

FB: Lachlan Cowan, Harry Dean, Wade Derksen

HB: Nic Newman, Mitch McGovern, Billy Wilson

C: Matthew Cottrell, Patrick Cripps, Blake Acres

HF: Ben Ainsworth, Will Hayward, Francis Evans

FF: Adam Cerra, Brodie Kemp, Nick Haynes

FOLL: Marc Pittonet, Jagga Smith, Sam Walsh

I/C: Oliver Florent, George Hewett, Lewis Young, Cooper Lord, Talor Byrne

 

Brisbane Lions Predicted Team List

FB: Noah Answerth, Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester

HB: Darcy Wilmot, Ty Gallop, Dayne Zorko

C: Jarrod Berry, Will Ashcroft, Zac Bailey

HF: Charlie Cameron, Logan Morris, Levi Ashcroft

FF: Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner, Kai Lohmann

FOLL: Sam Draper, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage

I/C: Jaspa Fletcher, Lachie Neale, Conor McKenna, James Tunstill, Darcy Fort

 

Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions Match Details

 

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026.

First Bounce: 7:40pm AEST

Location: Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

How to Watch: Channel 7 / Fox Footy / Kayo Sports

Carlton(+25.5)
Brisbane Lions(-25.5)

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