Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns- Second Semi Final Preview 2025
11/09/2025|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions
<p>Queensland footy. This is the moment you have been waiting for.</p>
<p>15 years in the making, we have our first-ever Queensland derby in a final, when Brisbane hosts Gold Coast in a semi-final this weekend at the Gabba. </p>
<p>The reigning premiers stumbled against the Cats at the G. Even if they did have some luck with some umpiring calls that led to some goals, inconsistent form, injuries to key players, and other factors are conspiring against them at the moment.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Suns are riding high after the best night in their history. Their first-ever final. Their first-ever finals win. It could only ever be one man to seal the deal and kick the winning score, right? David Swallow. The inaugural Sun, who had just announced his retirement and been picked for the special game... It’s like it was scripted for the Suns all along. </p>
<p>So, it brings us to a Q-Clash Semi-Final. We’ve tried a few times this season to coin this matchup the “Biggest Q-Clash ever”, but it literally does not get bigger than this. </p>
<p> The winner goes on to the MCG to meet Collingwood in a Preliminary Final, and the loser draws the curtain on season 2025.</p>
<p>Who will it be? For the latest team news, form, matchups, analysis, and betting tips, read Sportsbet’s Lions vs Suns AFL Semi Final preview below.</p>
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<h2>Brisbane vs Gold Coast Preview</h2>
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<p>The upcoming Q-Clash Final will be just the sixth non-Victorian local derby final in the AFL era. </p>
<p>There has been one Showdown Final and four Sydney Derbies, so Saturday night shapes as a significant occasion for the national game.</p>
<p>Inconsistency has been a theme for the Lions all season. Early on, they weren’t playing well but still managed to win games. Then they clicked into gear and found some strong form through the middle of the year.</p>
<p>But things wobbled again—they drew with North and dropped a couple of games they really shouldn’t have, thanks largely to inaccurate kicking—before steadying the ship and looking imperious once more.</p>
<p>It was the thumping loss to the Suns in the last Q-Clash that really put the prospect of missing the top eight on the radar. That defeat sparked something, and they powered through the final fortnight of the season—before being comprehensively unpicked by Geelong last Friday.</p>
<p>The Suns, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum. They know they’ll have to overcome a weight of history to beat the Lions at the Gabba—a venue where they haven’t tasted victory since 2018. But as the rising Suns quickly learnt: finals footy is a different beast.</p>
<p>It’s the kind of game built for midfield bulls like Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. It’s the kind of stage where Bailey Humphrey and Ben Long can shine. And they all know they’ll need to go again if this fairytale is going to continue.</p>
<p>The Lions have a big call to make at the selection table: who comes in to replace talismanic skipper Lachie Neale?</p>
<p>Bruce Reville was the one squeezed out for Neale last week, so he looks the most likely to get the recall. That could open the door for Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, and Levi Ashcroft to rotate through the midfield more. It’ll be fascinating to watch the clash of styles—Brisbane’s dynamic ball movers versus the Suns’ crash-and-bash duo in Rowell and Anderson.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, the Lions could swing some changes up forward after key talls Ty Gallo and Sam Day went goalless and were largely ineffective against the Cats.</p>
<p>Ruckman Oscar McInerney is also pushing for a return after building some strong form in the VFL and finally stringing a few games together.</p>
<p>The Suns didn’t suffer any obvious injuries against Fremantle, but they do have a couple of players ready to return.</p>
<p>Will Graham, a coach’s favourite, is pushing to be passed fit and could be an ideal sub—but that might come at the expense of last week’s hero, David Swallow.</p>
<p>Sam Clohesy was a regular on the wing before his injury, and he’ll also come into consideration if he’s cleared after dealing with an ankle issue.</p>
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<h2>Players To Watch</h2>
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<h3>Will Ashcroft</h3>
<p>With no Lachie Neale for the rest of the season, all eyes are on the reigning Norm Smith Medallist for a big one here. </p>
<p>He collected 30 possessions against the Cats last week, adding to his impressive catalogue of Finals games already in his short career. But, with Neale out, he’s likely now to garner some extra attention as he is one of the Lions' key ball winners and game breakers. </p>
<p>Went alright with 34 and the medal named after his dad, the last time he played the Suns at the Gabba too. He’ll be charged up.</p>
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<h3>Matt Rowell</h3>
<p>What a sight it was to see Matt Rowell play finals footy.</p>
<p>Labelled by the great Matthew Lloyd as one of the most destructive players in the game at the moment, he ran through his opponents for fun last Saturday night. Something he’d been doing all year, but on the finals stage, it felt more impactful.</p>
<p>Can he deliver again when the stakes and stage get raised yet again? </p>
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<h3>Dayne Zorko</h3>
<p>We love a local derby, but we love the Q-Clash and argy-bargy between Touk Miller and Dayne Zorko whenever they lock horns on the footy field. Or off the field, where they trade verbal barbs. </p>
<p>The Cats were able to stifle the Lions' ball movement last week, which so much of starts from the drive of the 36-year-old off-half back.</p>
<p>The former skipper will need to channel the chip on his shoulder mentality that he’s played with his whole career and drive the Lions into another preliminary final.</p>
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<h2>Brisbane vs Gold Coast Prediction & Betting Tips</h2>
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<h3>Who Will Win? </h3>
<p>There’s so much on the line for Brisbane here.</p>
<p>Under Chris Fagan, the Lions have been bundled out of the finals in straight sets twice—both times with semi-final losses at the Gabba.</p>
<p>Their record at the Gabba hasn’t been bulletproof, but the Suns haven’t won there since 2018. And while Gold Coast did dish out a thumping 66-point win the last time they met in Round 20, the Lions have still won 12 of the past 14 head-to-head clashes with their Sunshine State rivals.</p>
<p>The Suns have a midfield built for contested footy, but the Lions, at their best, are devastating when transitioning the ball with speed and dictating tempo through uncontested marks.</p>
<p>Brisbane is ranked number one in the league for marks—but the last three times they’ve lost that stat, they’ve lost the game. One of those was in that Round 20 belting by the Suns.</p>
<p>Gold Coast will need to capitalise on the absence of Lachie Neale and look to dominate clearances again. Josh Dunkley will likely take on a big tagging job, but Rowell, Anderson, Miller, Humphrey and co. will need to be at their bustling best against the Lions’ dynamic midfielders.</p>
<p>The Lions have their backs to the wall—but as they’ve shown across the past seven seasons, and again late in this one, they know how to rise when the stakes are high.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip</strong>: <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns-9596747">Lions</a></p>
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<h3>First Goal Prediction</h3>
<p>As good a night as it was for the Gold Coast Suns… spearhead Ben King would’ve wanted parts of it back.</p>
<p>0.3 and just three marks. He looked like he was trying to get more involved—pushing up the ground, presenting as a target—but it just didn’t quite click.</p>
<p>What a statement it would be if he could nail the first goal and get one over Harris Andrews early.</p>
<p>He’s yet to kick a significant haul against a top-eight side this season—but we’re backing him in for a strong start.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns-9596747">Ben King</a></p>
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<h3>Most Disposals Prediction</h3>
<p>Plenty of ball-winners on both sides here.</p>
<p>While picking one of the Gold Coast boys might be the simpler option, our eyes are drawn to the man in the Number 6 for the Lions—Hugh McCluggage.</p>
<p>Without Lachie Neale, McCluggage saw plenty of the footy over the final month of the season, stepping up with extra minutes on the inside. After a quieter game last week, and with Neale again sidelined, we’re expecting McCluggage to go big against the Suns.</p>
<p>He’ll need to if the Lions are going to come away with the win.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl/brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns-9596747">Hugh McCluggage</a></p>
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<h2>Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Match Details</h2>
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<p><strong>Date: </strong>Saturday, September 13th, 2025</p>
<p><strong>First Bounce:</strong> 7:35 PM, AEST</p>
<p><strong>Location:</strong> The Gabbal, Brisbane</p>
<p><strong>How to watch:</strong> Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports</p>
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