Round 10 of the 2026 AFL season kicks off with an absolute blockbuster as the Brisbane Lions welcome the Cats to sunny Brisbane for the Grand Final rematch.

In the media the Cats will all be saying they’re over last years’ Grand Final humiliation – but we all know they would’ve been burning over the off-season, with revenge on the mind.

To add to the intrigue, both of these clubs are locked up on 24 competition points - equal fourth on the ladder with Gold Coast and Melbourne.

The winner here will be able to separate themselves from the pack and push closer to the competition leading Swans and Dockers.

The reigning premiers enter this clash fresh off a home scare against the Blues, eventually claiming an 11-point win in a match where they lead by as many as 49 points.

Meanwhile, the Cats arrive in Queensland full of confidence after pouring pain on the Pies.

Geelong smoked by 54 points, crashing the Pendles’ party in his record-equalling 432nd game.  

Bailey Smith was simply untouchable in that win, racking up a game-high 40 touches, while Oisin Mullin proved to be one of the rare few taggers that manage to shut Nick Daicos out of the match.

With Brisbane currently sitting fourth and Geelong fifth, both holding 6-3 records, this clash shapes as not just a GF rematch, but a September preview.

The winner here will take a step toward securing a shot at the top four, while the loser will be left looking over their shoulder at the chasing pack.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Round 10 prediction and preview below.

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

A stern test awaits a classy Geelong outfit that looks to have rediscovered its best form after dismantling the Pies in front of 83,000 fans last week.

While both coaches will downplay the narrative, a Grand Final rematch always carries extra spice and the Cats will be desperate to prove they can match it with the champs on their home deck.

Max Holmes and Bailey Smith were the architects of the win over Collingwood, combining for a staggering 73 disposals, while Ollie Henry provided the finishing touch with four majors.

The challenge for the Cats is replicating that intensity against a Brisbane side that has historically had their measure in the biggest matches.

The Lions showed their ceiling is still the highest in the league during that brief period where they found fifth gear against Carlton, but their tendency to switch off and cruise remains a mystery.

They could get away with it against the now coachless Carlton Blues – but the Cats are a serious football team.

We expect Josh Dunkley to be handed the task of nullifying Holmes or Smith, while Oisin Mullin is almost certain to go Lachie Neale’s way in a tactical game of chess.

Connor O’Sullivan vs Logan Morris in the goal square will be about as fun as it gets for the footy purists.

Ultimately, Brisbane’s best remains the benchmark, and with the Gabba crowd behind them, we expect them to find enough gear shifts to edge out the Cats.

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by 14 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

How many times have we seen the same thing?

It’s a Thursday night at the Gabba, Charlie Cameron finding an early goal to get the Bris Vegas fans yipping and yahooing.

He’s literally scored so many in the last few years he’s thinking of changing his goal song from ‘Country Roads,’ because it’s become overplayed.

Chucky’s been in superb form recently, slotting four majors last week.

Given this, there’s no doubt he’ll be high up on Geelong’s list of players to target in defence. But something tells us he’ll find a way to make sure we’re hearing more from John Dever early on Thursday night.

Something tells us he’ll find a way to make sure we’re hearing more from John Dever early on Thursday night.

Betting tip: Charlie Cameron.

Most Disposals Prediction

We’re putting our faith in the dual Norm Smith Medallist, Will Ashcroft, to repeat his big-game heroics in this Grand Final rematch.

Ashcroft has hit the ground running in 2026 and has proven he is the future of the Lions midfield, consistently stepping up when the stakes are highest.

With Lachie Neale likely to be tagged in this contest – we see Ashcroft picking up the slack in the midfield and covering some extra ground here.

Ashcroft the elder for most disposals in this one.

Betting tip: Will Ashcroft.

*Odds are subject to change.*

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Predicted Teams

Brisbane Lions Predicted Team List

FB: Ryan Lester, Jack Payne, Darragh Joyce

HB: Dayne Zorko, Harris Andrews, Darcy Wilmot

C: Jaspa Fletcher, Will Ashcroft, Bruce Reville

HF: Kai Lohmann, Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron

F: Zac Bailey, Logan Morris, Lincoln McCarthy

FOLL: Sam Draper, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale

I/C: Jarrod Berry, Levi Ashcroft, Conor McKenna, Darcy Fort, Keidean Coleman

Geelong Cats Predicted Team List

FB: Mark O'Connor, Connor O'Sullivan, Tom Stewart

HB: Lawson Humphries, Zach Guthrie, Jake Kolodjashnij

C: Tanner Bruhn, Bailey Smith, Oliver Dempsey

HF: Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Mannagh, Brad Close

F: Patrick Dangerfield, Shannon Neale, Jack Martin

FOLL: Rhys Stanley, Max Holmes, Oisin Mullin

I/C: Sam De Koning, Tom Atkins, James Worpel, Jack Bowes, Oliver Henry

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Match Details

Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026

First Bounce: 7:30pm AEST

Location: The Gabba, Brisbane

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports