
Well, here we are already. The last round of the home-and-away season and the ladder is a strange beast right now.
Some clubs are jostling for a top-four spot like their lives depend on it. Others have already checked out and have Mad Monday on their mind. That mix is exactly what makes the final round so stacked with value.
Motivation is the whole game this week. Find the players who still have something to prove, back them against the ones who have packed it in already.
I've got four angles for you, and they all lean on the same idea. Mismatches in form, venue and which sides actually have a reason to show up.
For the inside lane on the best AFL bets, check out my list of players to watch in Round 24 below.
Best AFL Players to Add to Your Multi - Round 24
Matt Rowell - St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns
Marvel Stadium suits some players more than others and Rowell is firmly in the first camp.
His last three at under the roof have produced an average of 29.6 disposals and his last five games overall sit at 30.4. That's not a hot streak, that's a formline.
Gold Coast's season is over in any meaningful sense, but Rowell doesn't really have another gear to drop into.
He plays one way. St Kilda's midfield lost Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's drive and has leaned hard on Max Hall and Bradley Hill to make up the difference, which is a lot of work for a couple of blokes who don’t really need the win.
Rowell will be in the middle of everything.
Betting tip: Matt Rowell 28+ disposals.
Ollie Dempsey - Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers
Dempsey has quietly turned himself into a goalkicker.
His last four at GMHBA have averaged 2.5 goals a game and he put four on Essendon in Round 22 at the same venue. That's not a half-forward nicking one here and there. That's a genuine scoring option.
The bonus this week is that Geelong actually needs the scoreboard. Percentage matters at the pointy end of the ladder and a big win against North at home is exactly what the Cats will be looking for.
Dempsey will be the beneficiary of that.
Betting tip: Ollie Dempsey 3+ goals.
Mabior Chol - West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn Hawks
Some players just like the look of certain jumpers and Chol has form against West Coast.
His last five outings against the Eagles have averaged 2.8 goals a game, which is a strong return for a forward who isn't always the number one option in the Hawthorn attack.
Optus Stadium is a big deck and the Hawks head west with a top-four spot still in play and a need for percentage. That means a full-strength effort and plenty of ball going inside 50, which is all Chol really needs.
Betting tip: Mabior Chol 3+ goals.
Bonus Betting Angle: The Fremantle Midfield Multi
Here's the one I like best.
Over the past five weeks, Carlton have ranked 18th for disposals conceded to opposition midfielders. Dead last. They are giving up more ball to opposition mids than any other side in the competition and now they get Fremantle at Marvel.
The Dockers have the personnel to punish that. Andrew Brayshaw is the engine, Shai Bolton has the class to find it in traffic, and Jordan Clark's role off half back means he tends to feast when a team is winning the ball back and rebounding.
Three legs, one soft matchup. Stack them up.
Betting tip: Andrew Brayshaw 25+ disposals, Shai Bolton 23+ disposals, Jordan Clark 22+ disposals.
That's it from me for the home-and-away season. Good luck this week, we can’t wait for finals footy.
Odds are subject to change.*


