For the first time in over 25 years, elite-level AFL State of Origin football returns as Western Australia hosts Victoria at a sold-out Optus Stadium.
While Victoria boasts a squad overflowing with individual accolades and 19 All-Australian players, the Western Australians have built a team around premiership experience and a gritty defensive edge.
With 60,000 fans in Perth, ready to see some of the AFL’s best players put on a show, the question remains, is this the return of a gritty, interstate competition?
Or is it just a glorified pre-season training run?
Looking over the lineups, we can’t help but expect AFL Origin will be here to stay, with players playing for hometown pride, bragging rights and representing their heritage.
If you expect the underdog Sandgropers to dig in at home, consider the value in backing them to take out a complacent Victorian outfit.
It’s the first AFL Origin since 1999, throw out your form guides, huddle round and check out our full match preview below.
AFL Origin Match Details
Date: Saturday, February 14, 2026
Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth, Western Australia
Bounce: 4:40pm AWST / 7:40pm AEDT
AFL State of Origin 2026 Predictions and Betting Tips
Head-to-Head Prediction
A quick glance at the H2H odds will confirm that Victoria are the favourites despite playing in front of a hostile crowd in the West.
With living legends like Patrick Dangerfield, Max Gawn and captain Marcus Bontempelli rolling out for the big V, it’s simple enough to understand why.
The Victorians also have a frightening mix of height and craft in the forward line, with big doubts around whether WA will be able to stay in touch on the scoreboard.
Expect Ben King, Sam Darcy and Toby Greene to have big days out, getting supplied clean possession from the likes of Nick Daicos and Zach Merrett.
Having said that, one-off exhibition matches can be so tricky to predict, particularly when there is almost no form going into it, these two literally haven’t faced off since 1992.
1992 was an historic year, Mabo won in the high court, Nirvana played at the first Big Day Out and for the first time, a non-Victorian team won the AFL flag. That team - the West Coast Eagles.
My goodness, it’s an omen, the stars have aligned for a famous upset at Optus, you heard it here first.
In all seriousness, WA’s path to victory lies with turning this match into a true dogfight and making the Victorians scrap for every possession.
We expect to see a high scoring affair, with the Vic's ability to convert opportunities being the difference in this one.
Betting Tip: Victoria
AFL Origin 2026 - Line Betting Prediction
The line is set at 17.5 points, essentially asking if Victoria's star-studded midfield can convert enough opportunities to win by a three-goal margin.
Victoria’s depth is their greatest weapon; they have a stack of forward line talent to silence the home crowd and blow WA off the park late in the piece.
If the WA defence can't stifle the early Victorian momentum, the Vics are well-positioned to cover the -17.5 spread, unless WA can dig deep and find something special, which seems unlikely in a pre-season match. with a hostile Perth crowd against them.
Line Betting Tip: +17.5
Total Game Points – Over/Under
Expect a high-octane, attacking affair, with lighter collisions as players have one eye fixed on the AFL Season ahead. State of Origin historically leans toward a showcase of skills rather than a defensive grind and both teams are stacked with Ferraris like Jordan Clark and Bradley Hill who thrive on the fast Optus Stadium pitch.
With Victoria's ability to score quickly and WA's motivation to put on a show for the home fans, the Over 168.5 looks like it may be the play for those expecting a shootout.
Betting Tip: +193.5
Odds are subject to change.*
AFL Origin 2026 Teams
Western Australia Team List
1 - Jaeger O'Meara (FRE)
2 - Luke Jackson (FRE)
3 - Stephen Coniglio (GWS)
4 - Callum Ah Chee (ADE)
5 - Chad Warner (SYD)
6 - Jordan Clark (FRE)
7 - Rory Lobb (WB)
8 - Shai Bolton (FRE)
9 - Patrick Cripps (CAR - Captain)
10 - Bradley Hill (STK)
14 - Darcy Cameron (COL)
15 - Sam Taylor (GWS)
17 - Lawson Humphries (GEE)
19 - Mitch Georgiades (PA)
21 - Jesse Hogan (GWS)
23 - Charlie Cameron (BRI)
24 - Trent Rivers (MEL)
27 - Wil Powell (GCS)
33 - Aaron Naughton (WB)
35 - Nathan Broad (RIC)
36 - Kysaiah Pickett (MEL)
37 - Tom Barrass (HAW)
44 - Tim English (WB)
45 - Jake Waterman (WCE)
48 - Liam Baker (WCE)
Victoria Origin Team List
1 - Toby Greene (GWS)
2 - Jack Sinclair (STK)
3 - Caleb Serong (FRE)
4 - Marcus Bontempelli (WB - Captain)
5 - Jeremy Cameron (GEE)
6 - Hugh McCluggage (BRI)
7 - Zach Merrett (ESS)
8 - Nick Daicos (COL)
9 - Zak Butters (PA)
10 - Sam Darcy (WB)
11 - Max Gawn (MEL)
12 - Lachie Ash (GWS)
13 - Blake Hardwick (HAW)
14 - Max Holmes (GEE)
15 - Noah Anderson (GCS)
18 - Matt Rowell (GCS)
19 - Jack Gunston (HAW)
20 - Ed Richards (WB)
23 - Jacob Weitering (CAR)
24 - Joshua Battle (HAW)
25 - Sam Collins (GCS)
33 - Bailey Smith (GEE)
35 - Patrick Dangerfield (GEE)
38 - Tristan Xerri (NM)
44 - Tom Stewart (GEE)