<p>For the first time in over 25 years, elite-level <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-origin">AFL State of Origin football</a> returns as Western Australia hosts Victoria at a sold-out Optus Stadium.</p> <p>While Victoria boasts a squad overflowing with individual accolades and 19 <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-all-australian">All-Australian players</a>, the Western Australians have built a team around premiership experience and a gritty defensive edge.</p> <p>With 60,000 fans in Perth, ready to see some of the AFL’s best players put on a show, the question remains, is this the return of a gritty, interstate competition?</p> <p>Or is it just a glorified pre-season training run?</p> <p>Looking over the lineups, we can’t help but expect AFL Origin will be here to stay, with players playing for hometown pride, bragging rights and representing their heritage.</p> <p>If you expect the underdog Sandgropers to dig in at home, consider the value in backing them to take out a complacent Victorian outfit.</p> <p>It’s the first AFL Origin since 1999, throw out your form guides, huddle round and check out our full match preview below.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL Origin Match Details</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Date: </strong>Saturday, February 14, 2026</p> <p><strong>Venue:</strong> Optus Stadium, Perth, Western Australia</p> <p><strong>Bounce:</strong> 4:40pm AWST / 7:40pm AEDT</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL State of Origin 2026 Predictions and Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Head-to-Head Prediction</h3> <p>A quick glance at the H2H odds will confirm that Victoria are the favourites despite playing in front of a hostile crowd in the West.</p> <p>With living legends like Patrick Dangerfield, Max Gawn and captain Marcus Bontempelli rolling out for the big V, it’s simple enough to understand why.</p> <p>The Victorians also have a frightening mix of height and craft in the forward line, with big doubts around whether WA will be able to stay in touch on the scoreboard.</p> <p>Expect Ben King, Sam Darcy and Toby Greene to have big days out, getting supplied clean possession from the likes of Nick Daicos and Zach Merrett.</p> <p>Having said that, one-off exhibition matches can be so tricky to predict, particularly when there is almost no form going into it, these two literally haven’t faced off since 1992.</p> <p>1992 was an historic year, Mabo won in the high court, Nirvana played at the first Big Day Out and for the first time, a non-Victorian team <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/outrights">won the AFL flag</a>. That team - the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-season-extras/west-coast-eagles-first-win-2026-9954793">West Coast Eagles.</a></p> <p>My goodness, it’s an omen, the stars have aligned for a famous upset at Optus, you heard it here first.</p> <p>In all seriousness, WA’s path to victory lies with turning this match into a true dogfight and making the Victorians scrap for every possession.</p> <p>We expect to see a high scoring affair, with the Vic's ability to convert opportunities being the difference in this one.</p> <p><strong>Betting Tip:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-origin">Victoria</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>AFL Origin 2026 - Line Betting Prediction</h3> <p>The line is set at 17.5 points, essentially asking if Victoria's star-studded midfield can convert enough opportunities to win by a three-goal margin.</p> <p>Victoria’s depth is their greatest weapon; they have a stack of forward line talent to silence the home crowd and blow WA off the park late in the piece.</p> <p>If the WA defence can't stifle the early Victorian momentum, the Vics are well-positioned to cover the -17.5 spread, unless WA can dig deep and find something special, which seems unlikely in a pre-season match.&nbsp; with a hostile Perth crowd against them.</p> <p><strong>Line Betting Tip:&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-origin">+17.5</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Total Game Points – Over/Under</h3> <p>Expect a high-octane, attacking affair, with lighter collisions as players have one eye fixed on the AFL Season ahead. State of Origin historically leans toward a showcase of skills rather than a defensive grind and both teams are stacked with Ferraris like Jordan Clark and Bradley Hill who thrive on the fast Optus Stadium pitch.</p> <p>With Victoria's ability to score quickly and WA's motivation to put on a show for the home fans, the Over 168.5 looks like it may be the play for those expecting a shootout.</p> <p><strong>Betting Tip:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-origin">+193.5</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Odds are subject to change.*</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>AFL Origin 2026 Teams</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Western Australia Team List</h3> <p>1 - Jaeger O'Meara (FRE)</p> <p>2 - Luke Jackson (FRE)</p> <p>3 - Stephen Coniglio (GWS)</p> <p>4 - Callum Ah Chee (ADE)</p> <p>5 - Chad Warner (SYD)</p> <p>6 - Jordan Clark (FRE)</p> <p>7 - Rory Lobb (WB)</p> <p>8 - Shai Bolton (FRE)</p> <p>9 - Patrick Cripps (CAR - Captain)</p> <p>10 - Bradley Hill (STK)</p> <p>14 - Darcy Cameron (COL)</p> <p>15 - Sam Taylor (GWS)</p> <p>17 - Lawson Humphries (GEE)</p> <p>19 - Mitch Georgiades (PA)</p> <p>21 - Jesse Hogan (GWS)</p> <p>23 - Charlie Cameron (BRI)</p> <p>24 - Trent Rivers (MEL)</p> <p>27 - Wil Powell (GCS)</p> <p>33 - Aaron Naughton (WB)</p> <p>35 - Nathan Broad (RIC)</p> <p>36 - Kysaiah Pickett (MEL)</p> <p>37 - Tom Barrass (HAW)</p> <p>44 - Tim English (WB)</p> <p>45 - Jake Waterman (WCE)</p> <p>48 - Liam Baker (WCE)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Victoria&nbsp;Origin Team List</h3> <p>1 - Toby Greene (GWS)</p> <p>2 - Jack Sinclair (STK)</p> <p>3 - Caleb Serong (FRE)</p> <p>4 - Marcus Bontempelli (WB - Captain)</p> <p>5 - Jeremy Cameron (GEE)</p> <p>6 - Hugh McCluggage (BRI)</p> <p>7 - Zach Merrett (ESS)</p> <p>8 - Nick Daicos (COL)</p> <p>9 - Zak Butters (PA)</p> <p>10 - Sam Darcy (WB)</p> <p>11 - Max Gawn (MEL)</p> <p>12 - Lachie Ash (GWS)</p> <p>13 - Blake Hardwick (HAW)</p> <p>14 - Max Holmes (GEE)</p> <p>15 - Noah Anderson (GCS)</p> <p>18 - Matt Rowell (GCS)</p> <p>19 - Jack Gunston (HAW)</p> <p>20 - Ed Richards (WB)</p> <p>23 - Jacob Weitering (CAR)</p> <p>24 - Joshua Battle (HAW)</p> <p>25 - Sam Collins (GCS)</p> <p>33 - Bailey Smith (GEE)</p> <p>35 - Patrick Dangerfield (GEE)</p> <p>38 - Tristan Xerri (NM)</p> <p>44 - Tom Stewart (GEE)</p>