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2019 Melbourne Cup Overview

The first Tuesday in November is here and as always it’s a wide open Melbourne Cup with many runners having a great chance of taking out the 2019 edition.

Il Paradiso profiles as a great chance at each way odds, two starts back was just 1.4 lengths off Stradivarius and if the Aiden O’Brien galloper is able to reproduce that performance he will be right in the finish, he wont have an issue running string 3200m. Richard Hanon trained Raymond Task is another runner that apeeals at around the $21 mark in current markets, hit the line strongly last start in the Ebor from a long way back and will be able to settle closer to the speed from barrier 3.

Track Bias

The forecast for the day looks to be fine and clear with temperatures around 19c and 16kp/h easterly winds which should provide an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.

Speedmap

Plenty of early speed will provide a very solid pace and make it  a true staying test, expecting Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment to push forward to try and lead them up, Il Paradiso, Finche, Prince Of Arran & Hunting Horn will also be handy to the speed when they settle.

Melbourne Cup Field Comments

 

  1. Cross Counter Last years winner in dominant fashion, the run in the Irish St Leger last start over 2800m the gelding ran strongly through the line, gets a nice run from barrier 5 and won’t have an issue running out the 3200m.

 

  1. Mer De GlaceWon in dominant fashion in the Caulfield Cup sitting wide throughout and was strong through the line, the combination of the predicted soft track and the fact the horse has never been tested over the 3200m is a concern and feel it offers no value in current markets.

 

  1. Master Of RealityFrankie Dettori takes the ride on this Joseph O’Brien gelding, will make its own luck leading from the inside barrier and wont have an issue running the 3200m, could run a nice race at big odds.

 

  1. Mirage DancerDidn’t get much luck in the Caulfield Cup and once balanced up late hit the line well finishing 1.2 lengths off Mer De Glace, will take plenty of improvement from performance but the concern is the 3200m having never run past 2400m in his career.

 

  1. Southern FranceRaced flat last start in the Irish St Ledger in September only battling to the line, if he can run to the performance two starts back over 2800m at the Curragh and is able to find cover early handy to the speed he could run a race at nice each way odds.

 

  1. Hunting HornImpressive win at Moonee Valley last start over 2500m and was strong through the line which indicates he will relish the extra distance, will push forward from barrier 11 and gets a nice run in behind the speed, is one over the odds in current markets.

 

  1. Latrobe – Barrier 22 a concern and will have to work very hard to push forward and find a spot early, finished behind Southern France last start in the Irish St Ledger and has never raced over the 3200m and feel he wont run out the trip.

 

  1. MustajeerWinner of the Ebor two starts back at York and if able to reproduce that performance stepping up to 3200m the gelding can run a nice race, has had the Australian last start in the Caulfield Cup sitting along way back and making up very good ground late on Mer De Glace.

 

  1. Rostropovich – Very disappointing last three starts this preparation and won’t find the improvement needed to be competitive.

 

  1. Twilight Payment – Was only fair last start in the Irish St Ledger but should improve stepping up to 3200m and will be handy to the speed throughout.

 

  1. Finche – Has had a nice grounding leading in, ran well in last years Melbourne Cup finishing just over 3 lengths off Cross Counter, gets a nice run from barrier 4 and Kerrin McEvoy jumps on board which is a big positive.

 

  1. Prince Of Arran – Improves considerably when coming to Australia and looks set to peak here third up off a solid run in the Herbert Power over 2400m getting run down late by The Chosen One then took out the Geelong Cup last start sitting on the pace and fighting on well to the line, makes it luck on the speed but my find a few too sharp for him.

 

  1. Raymond TuskHit the line strongly behind Mustajeer in the Ebor Handicap sitting near last and running nice sectionals late, will be able to settle closer form barrier 3 and ran well at only 3200m start.

 

  1. DowndraftDominant win in the Hotham Stakes sitting just off the pace and showed a strong turn of foot to put them away and was eased down late, that win indicates he will handle the 3200m, gets a tricky barrier but if able to find cover early will be flashing home late.

 

  1. Magic WandBig query at the 3200m and will do a lot of work from barrier 24 to sit up on the pace and that could tell late, doesn’t appeal at current market price.

 

  1. NeufboscBeen very disappointing and is outclassed.

 

  1. SoundOnly battled to the line in the Caulfield Cup and hasn’t won since May 2018.

 

  1. Surprise BabyImpressive win last start when stepping up to 2500m in the Bart Cummings off a short freshen up, the win over 3200m in the Adelaide Cup last preparation was dominant and with some luck early in the run could run a race at each way odds.

 

  1. ConstantinopleHad zero luck in the Caulfield Cup and could argue would of won if he had clear running, 3200m look ideal and from barrier 7 does no work early to find a beautiful position off the pace.

 

  1. Il ParadisoIf this Aiden O’Brien trained runner can reproduce the run two starts back over 3270m where he was only 1.4 lengths off Stradivarius he will be very hard to beat and appeals at the current market price.

 

  1. Steel Prince – Huge query at the 3200m and has been very disappointing at its last two start, outclassed here.

 

  1. The Chosen OneDid nothing in the Hotham Stakes and has never run further than 2500m in his career, no chance.

 

  1. Vow And DeclareSat back and made up very ground late in the Caulfield Cup finishing just under a length off Mer De Glace, that run indicates the 3200m wont be an issue, the main concern is barrier 21 and where the gelding will be in the run.

 

  1. YoungstarHasn’t won since May 2018 and big query at 3200m, only battled to the line last start in the St Ledger over 2600m.

 

 

Melbourne Cup Tips

Il Paradiso EACH WAY

Raymond Task EACH WAY

Mustajeer EACH WAY

Constantinople EACH WAY