After what’s felt like an eternity, the US Election has arrived. Democratic challenger Joe Biden is the hot favourite to unseat President Donald Trump, but our own political prognosticator TIM HICKMAN has found some best bets to follow on election night.
Winning Texas is the holy grail for the Democratic Party because with its 38 electoral votes, it is the biggest reliably Republican state in the union. Consequently, at every election Texas is pored over to see if there is any sign that the Lone Star State will go blue.
Most electoral predictions last time had the state “Lean R”, and Donald Trump still won by an emphatic nine points. The 2018 Texas senate election saw Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke massively hyped as he took on incumbent Ted Cruz, but he was still comfortably beaten in a challenging year for Republicans. In a telling sign, Joe Biden’s campaign has declined to spend more money on advertising in Texas in the last week as well.
Trump will be winning Texas.
Florida is a more interesting case, but there are lots of signs to suggest that Trump should be winning here as well. The Republican Party does much better with Cubans (who make up a large portion of the Florida electorate) than it does with Latinos overall, and Joe Biden is seemingly struggling with Latino turnout compared to the norm.
The Realclearpolitics polling average has Biden just 1.6 points ahead and Trump making up big ground late. Democrats had built up a big early lead from mail in voting, but since early in person voting began is has been wound right back, and election day votes tend to favour Republicans. The lack of on ground campaigning and surge in Republican voter registrations will ultimately make the difference.
Florida stays red this election.
Trump won North Carolina by 3.66% in 2016 and it should be even closer in this election. It looks like Biden will do enough in the old blue wall states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win those, but one southern state the Biden campaign would love to win is North Carolina. Demographics have been strongly favouring the Democrats and Trump’s relative weakness with female, suburban voters will mean trouble in Charlotte’s expanding suburbs. Polling suggests this one goes down to the wire and at $10 this has plenty of appeal.