Pundits and polls have Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by a rather large margin, but are there scenarios that see Trump win re-election?
At the moment, most of the electoral analysts predict that Biden has more than an 80% chance of winning next week’s Presidential election.
But we heard that in 2016, when Trump stormed home to beat Hillary Clinton, one of the most stunning upsets – if not the most stunning upset – in US election history.
Are there ways that Trump can win in 2020 the way he did four years ago? The situation is a bit different, with Biden more palatable to many voters than Hillary was, and a concerted effort by Democrats to get more voters to the polls.
Still here are a few ways that Trump could make up ground and win the election.
1. The Polls Are Wrong
This lesson from 2016 continues to haunt both Democrats and pollsters even though measures have been taken to ensure that the 2020 polls have a wide margin for error. But with so many variables when it comes to Election Day – non-compulsory voting, difficulties at some polling places, weather affecting in-person voting, issues with voting by mail – it would not be a surprise to see a closer election than the polls indicate. And, as we’ve seen in the past, as simplistic as it might seem, we just don’t know if people are comfortable telling pollsters they are voting for Trump.
2. Win The Swing States Again
In 2016, Trump won a number of swing states (or battleground states) that traditionally voted Democratic. Hillary Clinton’s poor campaign strategy in Michigan and Wisconsin cost the Democrats dearly and when Trump also won the swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida it was all but over. Right now, polls show Trump trailing in nearly every swing state bar Ohio and Iowa, plus Florida where it’s dead even, but by no means does that translate to an automatic Biden win.
3. Flip Other States
The Trump campaign realises that their man could lose a few of those swing states, so they are looking at other states he could potentially steal. Minnesota is an historically Democratic state and hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1972. But Trump is targeting the state, spending money and digging up potential voters who didn’t go to the polls in 2016 in the hope that he can perhaps win Minnesota. Hillary won it narrowly four years ago and a surprise victory here could balance out a loss in Wisconsin.
4. Micro-target Specific Voters
As we get close to Election Day, the Trump campaign is ratcheting up its messaging to groups like Evangelical Christians, who are conservative and usually vote Republican, but may be put off by Trump’s morality (or lack thereof). Other voters being targeted are specific Hispanic groups, particularly Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans who are strongly anti-Communist and tend to lean Republican. They may be on the fence and while not Trump fans per se, could be pushed his way if Biden is seen as siding with pro-Socialist groups.
5. Another ‘October Surprise’
The Hillary email scandal that surfaced prior to the 2016 election didn’t necessarily swing any votes Trump’s way, but it may have lessened the passion of Democrats to get out and vote. It also dominated the headlines and took some heat off Trump. It’s unlikely that the Hunter Biden/Ukraine story is similar, but you’d be foolish to discount some kind of ‘breaking news’ in the next couple of days that could benefit Trump.
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